Review of the day

My, what an interesting afternoon…

I wouldn’t normally produce a review on a ‘no tips’ day, but as I’d expressed quite strong views on some of the mentions – particularly at Market Rasen and Chepstow - I wanted to complete the circle...

Starting at Market Rasen, where both Richmond and Dunlough Bay were successful.

These were the two horses that I fancied most on the day – though I was never going to be tipping them at the best prices available first thing this morning (7/4 and 5/2 respectively).

Well, despite me thinking these prices were plenty short enough, both were backed in further and went off even money and 9/4 !

And whilst both did win, neither victory was without it’s anxious moments.

Richmond looked in trouble at the second last (where his nearest pursuer fell) and the last – but managed to hang on grimly; whilst it was a similar story with Dunlough Bay, who was running on fumes over the final 2 obstacles…

I guess a win is a win – but both could have made for very uncomfortable viewing if we had been on at short prices…

Mind not as uncomfortable as the viewing of the other two mentions at Market Rasen.

Straidnahanna made a shocking blunder down the back straight, which effectively ended his chances: whilst Home Run slipped approaching the second last.

He looked the most likely winner at the time of the incident.

And that’s the trouble with taking short prices over jumps – there are just too many variables to ever feel totally confident.

Straidnahanna’s race was won by Shantou Magic, the other horse I was considering.

Unlike Straidnahanna (who was backed into 3/1 at the off), Shantou Magic was weak in the betting.

His SP was 9/2 - and I backed him at 7 on BF, moments before the off.

If that price had been available this morning, we might well have been on him…

Over at Chepstow, there were two different types of mentions to watch - the drifters…

Unlike last time, Sunshine Buddy found todays race wasn’t run to suit – and whilst she finished well, she was never going to reel in the leaders.

In the right circumstances, she can win again.

It was a different story with Gunna Be A Devil,

He also ran a decent race - but paid for trying to put it to eventual winner, Smiles for Miles.
As I said this morning, that one had untapped potential – and the application of blinkers had the desired effect, as he was much too good for his rivals.

Nether he nor Rouquine Savage (the winner of Sunshine Buddys race) would ever have been late tips.

Both were unexposed animals, so I would have read drifts on them as negative indicators (and I wouldn’t have tipped them at the early prices !)

I wasn’t as interested in the days others mentions – but for completeness…

At Wincanton, the handicap hurdle at 2:25 was indeed won by an outsider – but not the one I suggested.

If I’d looked a little harder, Sporting Boy was probably findable (he was 16/1 this morning) – but it wasn’t a race I spent a lot of time on.

Benefique Royale ran OK in the mares chase – but was beaten when falling at the second last: whilst Follow the Tracks faded after leading early in the finale.

However the lack of market support gave a fair indication that today wasn’t the day for him.

Finally, at Thurles, I felt that Saddlers Luck was most eye-catching…

It seemed a little odd to me that Ger Fox chose to hold up a proven front-runner, near the back of the field.

He did it so effectively that the horse had little chance from half way.

It was therefore interesting to see how well it ran on, when he did apply pressure late in the race.

There can be little doubt that the horse is both well enough – and well handicapped enough – to win a race.

Ofcourse, figuring out when connections will decide that should be, is a different matter – but I suspect we might be on him before the season is over…

Tomorrows racing at Ascot and Haydock, looks a little more competitive, which will hopefully result in more robust markets.

If I manage to find anything suitable, then I’ll issue the tip(s) at the normal time.

In the meantime, if any of you have feedback on both the value of todays write-up (with no tips – but plenty of mentions/thoughts): and how I should best handle situations like today (and it was typical of what I face on many mid-week days), then please feel free to email me…

TVB.