Monday 29 December 2014

Daily write-up - Dec 29th

It’s turned into quite a busy day – considering I intended to take it off !

3 meetings have survived the weather – and I think there are good opportunities at all 3.

Time constraints mean I have to keep the write-up very short – and there will be no review later (unless we get a bag full of winners  )

Here are my brief thoughts…

Newbury

1:05

A competitive race – but one in which I felt Gunna Be a Devil was over-priced.
He ran well on his seasonal debut against a well handicapped horse – and has been dropped 6lb following that run.
He will be sharper today; ideally suited by the test – and could get an easy time of it up front.
Something may get past him in the closing stages – but hopefully not 3 of them !

0.25pt win Gunna Be a Devil 16/1


1:35

Shattered Dream ran really well on his UK debut in a much hotter race at Cheltenham in November.
He disappointed next time – but today gets to run off a mark 8lb lower than he debuted from.
Conditions should be fine – and he represents that winning combination of Venetia and Aidan !

0.25pt win Shattered Dream 12/1


In the 2:45 race, I would expect Royal Regatta to follow up his recent course and distance win; whilst Vice et Vertu was of some interest, at a price (12/1) in the handicap hurdle at 3:15


Leopardstown

12:20

It’s slightly risk tipping Third Opinion here, because he is a potential plot horse !
He’s had a number of very quiet runs in decent novice chases and gets to make his handicap debut today off a mark of 116 (7lb lower than his hurdle mark).
He will win races off that mark – and I hope that, with it being the big Christmas festival, connections have targeted this race.
The market will doubtless tell, close to the off…

0.25pt win Third Opinion 14/1

3:05

A top class novice chase, where a chance can be given to most of them.
That said, I felt that Apache Stronghold had the strongest form, in the shape of his second place in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
He didn’t jump well that day – and he also jumped to his left.
If he can improve in that department, at a more suitable course, the others will have to be very good to beat him (which in fairness, one or two of them just might be !).

0.25pt win Apache Stronghold 8/1

I think that Hurriane Fly v Jezki is quite literally a coin toss. If Jezki gets to 2/1, I suggest you take it.
In the 2:00 race, Perrie Hill has a better chance than his 20/1 odds imply.


Limerick

3:20

A dilemma: the best bet of the day; the price in free fall; not all the bookmakers priced up – what to do ?!?
I issued – and you can all damn me when it wins !
Zekarya should have won this race 12 months ago, off a mark 1lb lower than he races off today.
He was given a very quiet come back run at Navan a fortnight ago.
His trainer gets back into the saddle today – and the cheek prices go on.
This horse is meant to win today – trust me !
I couldn’t believe the early 16/1 and 14/1 – 8/1 was still generous.
4/1 is about right – hopefully you’ve all beaten that !

0.5pt win Zekayra 9/1


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
 
Early
  
Newbury 1:35 Shattered Dreams 0.25pt win 12/1
Leopardstown 12:20 Third Opinion 0.25pt win 14/1
Leopardstown 3:05 Apache Stronghold 0.25pt win 8/1
Limerick 3:20 Zekarya 0.5pt win 9/1
 
Late
 
None
 
Mentions
 
Newbury 2:45 Royal Regatta (P )
Newbury 3:15 Vice et Vertu (O )
Leopardstown 1:25 Jezki (P )
Leopardstown 2:00 Perrie Hill (O )
 
Top Picks
 
None  

Review of the day

I’m sure that a few of you thought we got a bit lucky yesterday, when Emperors Choice got up in a head bobber, to win the Welsh National – and maybe we were…

However, the reality is, that I’ve tipped in 12 races since Christmas, and we’ve been on the horse that finished second, in no less than 6 of them.
Furthermore, we’ve had 5 horses traded at even money or less – and get beaten.

If that’s us going through a ‘lucky’ phase, then I dread think what things will be like when we get unlucky !

Ofcourse, it all suggests an unbelievable level of tipping: 12 races have yielded 9 horses that have finished first or second.
I think it’s safe to say we are in the ‘Golden Period’.
The trouble is, as we know from last season, when you are in the Golden Period, you need to make it pay…

And despite a couple of huge runs today, we ended up losing just over a point…

The first heroic loser, was The Book Thief.
He held a narrow lead approaching he final fence at Limerick - but an untidy leap saw him surrender it.
To his credit, he fought back tenaciously up the run in – but just couldn’t quite reel in the winner.
I think we can feel a little hard done by.

Foritsa ran no sort of a race in the same contest, weakening quite dramatically out of contention, like a horse with a breathing issue.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tongue tie in place next time he races – though whether we’ll be on him, is a different matter.

The second glorious failure of the afternoon, was provided by Jetson.
As you doubtless gathered this morning, I really fancied him – and whilst, in truth, I can have few complaints about the outcome, I still felt he could have won.
Davy Russell set out to make all – with Lieutenant Colonel the only one ever looking to be any sort of a danger.
Maybe Davy could have ridden him slightly differently, to try and beat Lieutenant Colonel – or maybe Lieutenant Colonel could have made a mistake at one of the last two flights !
Unfortunately neither happened – and the better horse on the day won.
That said, he wasn’t the better horse by much.

The final tip to ‘run’ was Home Farm – but no got no further than the first fence in the Lexus, so it’s impossible to know how he would have got on.
However, the pre-race market signs were distinctly positive – and whilst a worthy winner, I can’t believe that Road to Riches set an insurmountable standard.
It’s just a shame we didn’t get to find out how good Home Farm is…

With regard to the mentions, then there was more frustration, as Usuel Smurfer ran out a good winner of the handicap hurdle – at 20/1. Ouch !
The nature of the field made him nearly impossible to tip – but hopefully one or two of you took a small risk on him.

The days other mention, Art of Payroll, didn’t cover himself in quite as much glory…
He was settled out the back by Paul Carberry – and stayed there !
I’m sure there will be other days for him..

I’ve had a quick look at tomorrows cards – and there is some seriously nice racing !
I very much doubt that I will be able to take the day off in the circumstances - though I simply won’t have time to provide my normal level of service (in terms of an extensive write-up/review).

Assuming I do find some tips, then I’ll look to issue in the normal early/late windows – and I will produce a much reduced write-up (the kind ‘normal’ tipsters tend to provide !).

I’ll confirm plans first thing in the morning, as normal.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 28th

The abandonment of Leicester, leaves just 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Nothing much grabbed me at the Yorkshire venue, so my attention yesterday evening was very much focused on Ireland…

Actually, that’s not entirely true, my attention last night was mainly focused on responding to all of the congratulatory emails that you guys sent me, following the successes of yesterday afternoon !

As most of you know, I’m not a big bettor myself – and it certainly suits my psyche much better to find winners for you, than it does to try and make it pay myself.
I therefore get a great deal of satisfaction from hearing your stories of success…

I’m only aware of two of you, who put all of the selections in Lucky 31s.
One to a 20p stake and the other to a 30p stake.
I don’t think either managed to get the best prices available – yet the first picked up just shy of £1K – and the second, almost £1.5K.
If Foxrock and French Opera had managed to grab successes, both guys would have won life changing amounts.

We really were that close…

Of the other stories I received, then my favourite was probably from Nick - who treated his good lady to a KFC out of his winnings ! 
Us TVB guys sure know how to celebrate 

On to today, and with just 3 meetings, things are relatively quiet.
I’ve found a couple of tips at Leopardstown (unfortunately, Pricewise tipped one of them before I got chance – which was a bit irritating) and a couple of tips in one of the Limerick races.

Just a quick update on my plans for the next week or so:
I plan to take off most of the next week – and I will look to return properly on Tuesday 6th January.
That said, there is a slight chance that I will tip on the first 3 days of this week (Mon-Wed) – and I almost certainly will tip on New years day (Thurs).
During this period, I’ll advise the evening before, on whether I am likely to tip (to give you maximum notice).
Whatever, I won’t be tipping next Fri, Sat, Sun or Mon – as I’ll be away from home (so you will definitely get a lie in then !).

Hopefully you’ll work things out as we go along – I’ll keep you updated via email, as I always do…

Anyway, on to the rationale behind todays tips – and a few other thoughts…


Leopardstown

1:50

It was just before 8:00 yesterday evening, when I got round to looking at this race properly…
As always, I worked my way through the runners – and came up with the horse I felt most likely to win the race.
Generally, the horse I find (assuming there is one), tends to be sitting at – or close to – the top of the betting (particularly in a race such as this).
I was therefore, genuinely shocked (and a bit excited !) to see Jetson available to back at 10/1.
Unfortunately that excitement turned to disappointment, just after 8:00, when the priced turned spectacularly blue on odds checker –and I realised that Jetson had been ‘pricewised’…
Hopefully some of you managed to get the 10/1 price reversion with B365 this morning (they held it for at least 10 mins) – if not, 7/1 or greater, is definitely fair enough…
The reason I’m so keen on Jetson, is not only because he has ticks in just about every box (trip, ground, distance, fitness, track) he also holds the favourite, At Fishers Cross, on form at the Punchestown festival in April.
Jetson caused a bit of a shock that day, when beating super mare Quevega – with At Fishers Cross back in third. However, there was no fluke about the performance – and with a nice warm up run at Fairyhouse under his belt, I think Jetson is ready to step back into the limelight and take another grade 1 contest this afternoon…
Jetson was beaten by Lieutenant Colonel in his Fairyhouse comeback race – but he was conceding race fitness that day – and running over a trip short of his best. I’ll be a little surprised if he can’t reverse the form this afternoon.
The biggest dangers in today race are likely to come in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained due, Zaidpour and Briars Hill..
However, as I’ve said previously I’m not a massive fan of Zaidpour – and as Ruby (and Paul Townend) have presumably overlooked Briar Hill this afternoon (the suggestion being that he needs the run), the case for Jetson looks very strong indeed.
So strong in fact, that I’m going to chance my arm and make him a Top Pick.
Fingers crossed then !

0.5pt win Jetson 8/1


2:55

A truly fascinating renewal of the Lexus chase – and one that is certainly not easy to solve…
Bobs Worth won the race 12 months ago – and is probably the best horse in this years renewal. However, first time up, in heavy ground – I’m not so sure…
The heavy ground won’t suit Lord Windermere either; and whilst you can’t be as categoric about Road to Riches, he will still have it all to prove on the softest surface he has raced on…
You can see how Tom Segal ended up with Sam Winner (who will love the ground) – but he is very one-paced…
If it turns into an absolute war, he could be the one – but if they don’t go hard from the off, he’s likely to get done for foot when the pace quickens…
If you could be sure that Carlingford Loch was tuned to the minute, he could be very interesting. The market will likely tell the tale with him (if 14/1 becomes 7/1, I would suggest you join the plunge !).
The one truly dark horse in the race, is Home Farm…
Trained last season by Arthur Moore, he joined Henry de Bromhead over the summer and seemed to put up a much improved performance when winning on debut for him at Thurles.
He beat Foildubh that day – and would likely have beaten Hidden Cyclone.
The suggestion is that he ran to a rating in the mid 150s – over a trip short of his best – and on his first run of the season.
It’s not unreasonable to expect some improvement from him today, particularly now he is back running over a more suitable trip. And whilst he is likely to have to improve around 10lb in order to take todays contest, as an unexposed 7 year old, that is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Whatever, I felt him worth a small play at a big price, in a race that looks very open indeed.

0.25pt win Home Farm 25/1


Earlier on the card, Dara Tango will take the beating in the handicap hurdle at 12:50 – though top weight in heavy ground, won’t make it easy for him.
The other one that caught my eye, was Usual Smurfer…
He is well handicapped compared to his chase rating: should handle the ground – and has won after an absence.
He’s another that is likely to be backed, if fancied – but the 20/1 currently on offer makes a bit of appeal.

The beginners chase at 1:20 looks a cracker…
The top 4 in the market all look potentially useful sorts – but the same can also be said of Art of Payroll…
He’s yet to jump a fence in public, so comes with risks – but if he does take to the bigger obstacles, I could see him running a big race.
He might be worth a speculative risk at the 14/1 generally on offer.


Limerick

1:35

I expected to be all over Foritsa in this race – but a couple of things have tempered my enthusiasm…
Firstly, the absence of Adam O’Neil in the saddle. O’Neil has struck up a really good relationship with the horse – and his 7lb claim is invaluable.
It is therefore a little disconcerting to see that he has apparently jumped ship and is instead riding top weight, Come to The Party.
There may be good reasons for that – but if there are, I’m not aware of them so I have to see it as a negative.
Secondly, the presence of The Book Thief in the field.
He ran an absolute stormer last time out (despite what the RP comments might say !) against a couple of decent sorts.
That was his second run back after an absence and suggested that he should be cherry ripe for this afternoon.
As this is a veterans chase, then inevitably, most of the runners are on the decline.
I found it quite easy to put a line through around half the field (including our old friend Jadanli, who will always have a special place in TVB hearts !).
Foritsa is the one horse in the race, who is probably not in decline.
He is obviously a horse we know very well (as he won for us twice last season) – and whilst he has disappointed on his two runs this season, there were good reasons for those runs (seasonal debut & trip too short).
Everything is perfect for him today (trip, ground, fitness, track) – apart from the jockey booking.
I still felt he was worth a shot.
The Book Thief is more risky – but he’s a bigger price and if I read his last run correctly, he is another who is ready to put up a very big run.
Let’s hope one of them manages to come home in front this afternoon.

0.25pt win Foritsa 7/1
0.25pt win The Book Thief 14/1


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips
 
Early
 
Leopardstown 1:50 Jetson 0.5pt win 8/1
 
Late
 
Leopardstown 2:55 Home Farm 0.25pt win 25/1
Limerick 1:35 Foritsa 0.25pt win 7/1
Limerick 1:35 The Book Thief 0.25pt win 14/1
 
Mentions
 
Leopardstown 12:50 Usuel Smurfer (O )
Leopardstown 1:20 Art of Payroll (S )
 
Top Picks
 
Leopardstown 1:50 Jetson 

Review of the day

Well, I’m sure I’ve had better days than today – but, for the life of me, I can’t remember when !

I tipped 6 horses in 5 races – and ended up with 3 winners, 2 seconds and a third.
What’s more, the two seconds could easily have won their respective races: whilst the third touched even money in-running !

And even more than that, I was struggling so much for time this morning, I wasn’t even able to mention Ballinvarrig. If I could have got an accurate going report for Kempton, we would have been on him at 7/1 !

Still, I’m not complaining – it would take a lot to spoil a day which really can only be described as ‘sensational’…

First up, it was Twinlight, who defied insulting odds to record a comfortable victory in the dial-a-bet chase.
As I said this morning, the key to him was his jumping – and under a great ride from Paul Townend, he barely touched a twig.
Tremendous stuff !

Next up it was Awaywiththegreys.
If you watched his last run at Chepstow, you wouldn’t believe it was the same horse.
Even when he was passed, following a mistake at the third last, I never gave up hope.
Handsupfordetroit is a bridle horse: Awaywiththegreys is a battler.
In the Chepstow mud, you want a battler on your side.

The start of the Wetherby race and the Welsh National clashed – but the race was over at Wetherby first, and it made for painful viewing…

Firstly De Boitron looked likely to win – before weakening out of things: then French Opera looked like getting up – but he had been given too much to do.

The winner, Upsilon Bleu, is an enigmatic sort – but he was clearly on a going day today – more’s the pity !

Meanwhile, it looked like Emperors Choice was in for another near miss at Chepstow – but like Awaywiththegreys, he’s a battler…

He led to the third last, by which point, he had most of the field in trouble – but a sloppy jump there seemed to have sealed his fate.
I was just hoping that Aidan could keep him going, because I knew he stayed much better than the two in front of him.
And Aidan did – and jumping the last it was clear he had a chance…

The last furlong took an age to complete – but that was always going to be in the Emperors favour.
He got up right on the line – but no-one can say he (and indeed we) didn’t deserve it.

It was an amazing victory – one I somehow doubt will be surpassed this season.

Finally, Foxrock tried to put the icing on the cake in Paddy Power chase.
His jumping was sloppy – but it looked like his engine was going to get him home when he took up the running approaching the last.
Unfortunately, it was not to be – and Living Next Door pounced up the run in…

Still, even that couldn’t spoil what was an absolutely brilliant day.

I could be tipping for a long time before I manage to match it – I just hope a few of you managed to make it pay appropriately…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 27th

Just the 5 NH meetings today: at Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Once again, there is an absolute glut of top class racing – far more than this particular tipster can get his head round !
I’ve had to cherry pick – but provided I’ve managed to pick the right cherries, I don’t suppose anyone will mind too much !

In truth, I’ve been helped by the tardiness of the track reporting. I write this at 10:15 – and there is still no update on the state of the ground at Kempton.
It looked softer than I expected, yesterday – and I would imagine they’ve had some rain since then.
However, I’ve really little idea on what the ground will be riding like.
Consequently, I’ve been forced to swerve the meeting…

Instead, I’ve majored on Chepstow (where I know it will be bottomless) – and Leopardstown (where I know it will be heavy) – plus one race at Wetherby.

Here is the logic for the tips – and a few other thoughts…


Chepstow

1:25

Those of you who pay particular attention to the write-ups, will recall that I was pretty keen on Awaywiththegreys, the last time he ran…
That was at the beginning of this month, in a race over today course and distance. The only reason I didn’t tip him that day was because of the ground. It was good to soft – and I’m pretty convinced that Awaywiththegreys requires heavy ground to be seen at his best.
Whatever, it was a good call to swerve him, as he ran really disappointingly that day, despite being backed into 3/1 favouritism…
Whether he ran poorly because of the ground – or because connections didn’t manage to secure a price, I’ve no idea – but I’m happy to give him a chance to redeem himself today…
Awaywiththegreys had his finest hour in this very race 12 months ago, when, despite a mistake at the last, he managed to run down Ugly Bug in the shadows of the post.
His victory that day was achieved off a mark of 130. He was raised 6lb for it – but today gets to run off a mark of 127.
There can be little doubt that he is potentially well handicapped.
As I’ve already said, today’s test (3 miles in heavy ground) is precisely what he needs – plus, he has a cherry on top, in the shape of 5lb claimer, Sean Bowen.
In short, he ticks a lot of boxes for a 14/1 shot…
Ofcourse, the question mark is his current form. We do have to be prepared to forgive his most recent run – but if we are prepared to do that, then he clearly is a good bet this afternoon…
In terms of dangers, then I would nominate Katkeau and Wychwoods Brook as the two I fear most. The former won a decent race at the Paddy Power meeting, on the back of a long absence. He’s been raised 8lb for that win – but that doesn’t look overly punitive. Whilst Wychwood Brook races today from a mark 14lb lower than his chase mark – and should have no issues with the very heavy ground.
I would expect both to go well – but hopefully Awaywiththegreys will have their measure…

0.5pt win Awaywiththegreys 14/1


2:35

I previewed the Welsh National on the ante-post blog a few weeks back…
At the time, I felt that Amigo and Emperors Choice represented good value at odds of 25/1 and 33/1 respectively.
However, the danger with ante-post betting is that the horse won’t make the gig.
Well, fortunately, both horses look likely to make it to the post – and more than that, both have halved in price, since I posted on the blog.
I was particularly keen on Emperors Choice, whom I felt ticked just about every box – and, if anything, the case for him has got stronger since I compiled it…
The withdrawal of the horses originally at the top of the handicap, has seen quite a significant weight rise (11lb).
As a result, Emperors Choice now gets to run off a near ideal weight of 10st8lb – whilst a number of potential dangers have had their weights taken well above the 11st barrier.
Only a hand full of horses have managed to carry in excess of 11 stone to victory in the Welsh National over the past 30 years – so those in that category today, will need to be exceptional to win.
The other big pluses for the chances of Emperors Choice, are the over night rain (which means the ground is likely to be truly bottom-less) – and the booking of Aidan Coleman.
I do rate Coleman as a jockey – but more than that, him being in the saddle suggests that Emperors Choice is Venetias number 1 for the race…
Despite all of these positives, dangers still abound…
Obviously there is Amigo (though the 12/1 now available holds little appeal): whilst Benbens and Woodford County are two others who catch my eye.
That said, I do feel that Emperors Choice is an exceptional bet at 20/1 (never mind 33/1). So much so, that I was tempted to have 0.5pt on him – despite the price !
Ofcourse that doesn’t mean he will win – but I can guarantee you that if I could find ones like him every day of the year, this would be a very profitable service indeed !

0.25pt win Emperors Choice 20/1


Elsewhere on the Chepstow card, I was half tempted by Bog Hands Harry in the novice handicap chase at 12:55.
He did amazingly well to win last time out at Ascot  - and todays left handed track should suit him much better.
The 5/1 yesterday evening wasn’t quite tempted enough, however – so needless to say, the 7/2 this morning makes scant appeal…

Saint Lino caught my eye in the Finale juvenile hurdle, at 1:55…
He is making his UK debut – but has the same owner and trainer as Reve De Sivola.
Obviously it is complete guesswork – and he could never be at tip – but I thought he looked quite interesting at 25/1…

Finally, there is a cracking handicap chase at 3:10…
The novice, Deputy Dan makes the market, but I would be happy enough to take him on.
The trouble is, with what…
Good cases can be made for Renard, Ultragold and Headleys Bridge – and half cases for 3 or 4 others…
If backed into a corner, I would probably go with Headleys Bridge – but in such an open race, there is little margin in a quote of 7/1…


Leopardstown

1:20

What I find amazing about this race, is how few of the runners will be suited by the 2 miles on heavy ground…
Ballcasey and Bright New Dawn were both running over 3 miles, this time last year: whist Simply Ned is unlikely to appreciate the very heavy ground…
Conditions should be fine for Hidden Cyclone – but arriving on the back of falls in his last two runs, is hardly ideal…
Savello hasn’t run since April, which leaves Moscow Mannon, Mallowney, Uxizandre and Twinlight…
It’s difficult to crab the case of Uxizandre – but at 2/1, the value is minimal (or non-existent !).
Of far more interest, is Twinlight…
He is actually the 4th highest rated runner in the field – just 4lb off top rated Uxizandre and a fair bit higher than both Moscow Mannon and Mallowney. Furthermore, he will be ideally suited by todays test of 2 miles and heavy ground.
His main issue, is his inconsistency – but on a good day, he can be very good.
I think it all comes down to his jumping – if he can get that right, he is a serious horse.
He got it right when he ran away with a grade 2 at Navan in November – but it went to pieces when he was a well beaten favourite at Cork, earlier this month.
Clearly he is not bomb proof – but equally, I think he has the natural ability to win the race – and at 25/1 it is worth a gamble that Paul Townend can get a tune out of him.

0.25pt win Twinlight 25/1


2:55

It goes a little bit against the grain to tip the 6/1 favourite in a 30 runner handicap – but simply, I think Foxrock has an exceptional chance in a race which is nowhere near as competitive as the numbers would suggest…
In truth, Foxrock has been on my radar for this race since his hugely eye catching performance at Punchestown at the beginning of this month.
His performance that day was so eye-catching, his jockey was called before the stewards to explain it.
He claimed that he was riding to orders – through it later transpired that the gelding had lost his front 2 shoes during the race.
Whatever, the fact he only finished third that day, despite looking like he could have won comfortably, meant that he gets to run today off the exactly the same mark.
Obviously, all the hullabaloo surrounding the performance meant that everyone became ware of him – but in a race worth over Euro 100K to the winner, that doesn’t really matter !
What matters is that the horse is fit, well handicapped and running under ideal conditions – and Foxrock ticks all of those boxes.
In fact, despite top weight, Foxrock could still be very well handicapped.
He was one of the top staying novices last season – and always looked the type to mature into a graded performer (he is still only 6).
Rather than any one of his rivals today, I am more concerned about the sheer volume of runners (and hence, possible traffic problems) – or him just not performing to his best.
Because if he does perform at the level I think him capable – and he gets the required bit of luck in running, then I think he will be exceptionally difficult to beat.

0.5pt win Foxrock 6/1


Wetherby

2:40

Despite carrying top weight, there is an argument that French Opera is very well handicapped today.
Running of a mark of 149, he’s not been rated below 150 since he won a handicap chase at Cheltenham 5 years ago…
Since then, he has raced almost exclusively in class 1 races – often graded events – and invariably run with credit.
He did run in a class 2 event 12 months ago and finished a close second to the fast improving Eastlake. He runs from a pound lower mark today (excluding his jockeys claim), which suggests that he really should go very close.
I guess there are 2 possible issues with him: firstly he will be 12 years old in a few days time: and secondly I don’t think he would appreciate very soft under foot conditions.
With regard to his age, then he ran a very eye-catching race on his seasonal debut in the Peterborough chase, earlier this month – that certainly suggested the fire still burns bright.
With regard to the going, then it is officially soft, good to soft in places. Assuming that is the case, then I think he should get away with it…
If he does, then I think there is a chance he could outclass today rivals.
If he doesn’t, then De Boitron is the one I think will be most likely to take advantage. He ran against French Opera last time out – and whilst he finished behind him, he is a little better of at the weights today. I could also see him running a  very big race.
I think he is worth a saver.

0.5pt win French Opera 6/1
0.25pt win De Boitron 7/1

  
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
 
Early
 
Chepstow 1:25 Awaywiththegreys 0.5pt win 14/1
Chepstow 2:35 Emperors Choice 0.25pt win 20/1
Leopardstown 1:20 Twinlight 0.25pt win 25/1
Leopardstown 2:55 Foxrock 0.5pt win 6/1
Wetherby 2:40 French Opera 0.5pt win 6/1
 
Late
 
Wetherby 2:40 De Boitron 0.25pt win 7/1
 
Mentions
 
Chepstow 12:55 Big Hands Harry (O )
Chepstow 1:55 Saint Lino (S )
Chepstow 3:10 Headleys Bridge (O )
 
Top Picks
 
None

Review of the day

The days 4 tips managed to yield a couple of seconds – but that’s not much good when you play win only (as I normally do).

There’s perhaps an argument that I should have put up Purple Bay EW – and I did consider it – but I felt it was worth taking on Faugheen.

With hindsight that wasn’t the wisest thing to do, as he looked like a machine in the Christmas hurdle.
Purple Bay ran well to finish second - but never managed to get within striking distance of the imperious winner.
It will take a very good one to lower his colours in the Champion.

The other second we got, was Upepito at Wincanton.
He travelled really well through the race – and did briefly look like he might win.
But ultimately he was put in his place by Minella Definitely.

It would be unfair to crab his performance too much – but I do feel he was one that got away.

The other two tips didn’t perform anywhere near as well…

Katgary was kept very wide by Sam Twiston Davies - presumably because of concerns regarding his jumping.
In fairness, I thought he jumped very well – but he would have needed to be different class to his rivals, in order to win.
Well, he certainly wasn’t that – and it was soon clear that he was fighting a losing battle, when the pace quickened down the back straight.

He finished well beaten – but I’m sure he is better than today’s run.
There must be a fair chance that he will get compensation before the season is over.

The final tip of the day was Way up in the Air – and I was totally baffled by the ride she was given.
As I mentioned this morning, she is head strong sort – who has always previously been ridden with restraint.
Well, not today !
Today she was allowed to stride on  - but it didn’t do her any good at all.
Her normally sharp jumping was ponderous – and a sloppy jump at the fifth last sealed her fate.

She is another who is far better than todays performance suggested….

With regard to the mentions, then Creepy and Master Neo were both hugely disappointing.
And whilst it was a similar story for Vintage Star, Cape Tribulation ran much better in the same race and was a little unlucky to only finish second.

Finally, Cue Card again under–performed in the King George – and he now has a significant question mark hanging over him.
The race was won, for the second season in succession, by Silviniaco Conti.
You will rarely see a more straightforward winner of a big race. Noel Fehily set out to make all - and did so !
Hopefully a few of you were on him at the 9/1 advised on the ante-post blog – a  belated Christmas present if you were…

Just a reminder, that as it’s a Friday evening, I will open the tipping window at 6:00 this evening, in case there is anything that can be tipped for tomorrow (and I suspect there will be at least one tip).

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 26th

There are an incredible 10 NH meetings taking place today: 8 in the UK (one of which is in Northern Ireland) – plus a further 2 in the Republic of Ireland.

Busy times !

In fact, there is so much racing – plus relative uncertainty (due to information not being updated over the Christmas holiday), that I decided only to look at half of the cards.

I limited myself to Kempton, Wetherby and Wincanton in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

I found 4 tips – and hopefully there will at least one winner, amongst them.

Here is the rationale – along with a few other thoughts…


Kempton

1:25

When I first looked at this race, I was drawn to The Skyfarmer…
He’s been disappointing on his first two tries over fences, but I’m sure he will be helped by today’s quicker ground.
He is also becoming quite attractively handicapped.
The trouble is, when I re-watched the videos of him in action, I’m just not convinced by his fencing technique. He spends a lot of time in the air – without going forward very much.
In short, his technique is inefficient – and potentially flawed.
Ofcourse, quicker ground may see significant improvement – but after due consideration, I decided to pass on him and go instead for a horse who will be jumping his first ever fence in public…
After 4 runs over hurdles in his native France, Katgary made his debut for Paul Nicholls in the 4 year old Fred Winter hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
In truth, he should have won that day, but he was hampered by a faller at he second last hurdle and could only finish second.
It was still a run of some merit however, as the winner, Hawk High is now rated 145 – and Katgary gets to run off a mark of just 135 today.
The suggestion that he is potentially well handicapped is supported by the current rating of the horses who finished immediately behind him at Cheltenham.
The main question, is whether he can run to that level of form today…
He’s been a little disappointing on his 2 runs this season - but he appeared to need the first of them; whilst he can be excused the second as it took place in the fiercely competitive Greatwood hurdle.
Of course, we have also no idea how he will cope with fences – but I’m sure he will have been well schooled and it seems quite significant that Nicholls is putting him over the bigger obstacles whilst he is still only 4 years old.
This is a ploy Nicholls has used successfully in the past. The 6lb weight for age concession that 4 year olds get from their seniors, is a big plus point.
All this said, Katgary does face some potentially very useful rivals today – though ofcourse, there is every possibility that he himself could be a  decent animal…
On balance, I figured it worth a risk to find out at the 8/1 best available.

0.5pt win Katgary 8/1


2:35

I think we will learn a bit more about Faugheen today…
He’s being billed as a superstar – and is current favourite for the Champion hurdle.
He might well prove to be that good – but at the moment, I think there are a few question marks hanging over him.
Firstly, the value of his general form: he was an exceptional novice last season  - but that doesn’t make him a champion this; and secondly, his effectiveness over a sharp 2 miles, like he will encounter at Kempton.
Whatever, I don’t think todays test will play to his strengths, so if he does come out on top, he will go up a bit in my estimation.
All this said, I would still make him favourite for todays race – but not a 2/5 shot.
Part of the issue, is what to take him on with…
His 3 main rivals aren’t Champion Hurdle class – though in fairness, all 3 also have a good deal of scope for improvement.
Irving was joint favourite to beat Faugheens stable mate, Vatour, at last seasons festival – and whilst he wasn’t up to that task, he should have won his 2 subsequent starts.
Whilst Sign of a Victory was also a very useful novice, and absolutely hacked up on his reappearance in a decent handicap at Ascot.
Both of those horses prefer decent ground – as does Purple Bay.
In all probability he would have lost out to Irving on his reappearance in the Elite hurdle at Wincanton, if that one hadn’t fallen at the last.
However, it is unlikely there would have been much between them, so with a 6lb pull in the weights today, it is difficult to understand the discrepancy in prices between the pair (Irving is 6/1, Purple Bay 20/1).
Prior to that run, it appeared that, whilst still progressing, Purple Bay did have limitations.
However, it should be borne in mind that he is still only 5 years old and therefore could still have plenty of room for improvement.
Ultimately, this all came down to odds…
Over a sharp 2 miles, there is a chance that Faugheen is vulnerable – and there doesn’t look to be a lot between the 3 horses that following him in the betting.
As one of them is 3 times the odds of the other 2, I felt he was worth a small risk.

0.25pt win Purple Bay 20/1



The King George VI chase is the high-light of the Christmas period – and this seasons
race promises to be a cracker…
Last seasons victor, Silviniaco Conti, is a worthy favourite, but the quick ground gives a number of his rivals a realistic chance of beating him…
If he is overturned, than I think it is most likely to be by his old rival, Cue Card.
He seemed to have this race in safe keeping, turning for home last season – but weakened between the final two fences.
On todays quicker ground, there must be a good chance his stamina will hold out for the required extra furlong or two…
The other one of major interest is Menorah.
He put it up to Silviniaco last time out at Haydock – and he is another that will be much better suited by todays quick ground.
I’d be happy enough opposing Dynaste and Al Ferof – whilst accepting that both have a chance of victory.
I think that Champagne Fever also has a chance of victory – but this will represent a huge test for him.
He looks very weak in the betting – but if there is late money for him (say he goes off at 5/1 or less), I have a feeling he will be successful.
Wishfull Thinking and Johns Spirit are fascinating bigger priced contenders.
I’ll be surprised if either gets home – but I could still see Wishfull Thinking running a mighty race.
All things being equal, I think the first 3 home will be Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Menorah – I’m just not sure in what order.
At the current prices, I think Cue Card (7/1) could represent a bit of value.


The Kauto Star Novice chase at 2:00 is another race where the state of ground is likely to open things up…
Market leaders Saphir De Rheu and Coneygree, would be much more effective on a softer surface, as would Virak and Carraig Mor.
As a consequence, Creepy and Warden Hill have both got better chances than their odds suggest.
I could actually quite fancy Creepy, who put in an exemplary round of jumping on his chase debut, before falling on soft ground, when running at Cheltenham.
The trouble is, I’ve no idea how he will cope with the Kempton track…
He’s never gone right handed – so it would be a complete guess.
He also likes to front run, so the presence of Coneygree won’t help on that score.
I might have taken a risk if the opposition wasn’t so hot – but I just can’t quite see him being good enough to overcome Saphir De Rheu (even on quick ground).
That said, I could easily see him running a very big race…



Wincanton

1:05

When Upepito made his UK debut at Market Rasen, just under a year ago, he was a 33/1 shot the Champion chase. Today he gets to run in a handicap off a mark of 123…
In fairness, he ran off a mark of 129 on his first outing – but I have a feeling he is one of those horses that take a bit of time to acclimatise, following a change of country…
He could only finish third at Market Rasen – and did even worse on his only subsequent outing last season, when beating just one rival home at Musselburgh.
He ran second at Auteuil in April but was then put away until reappearing in a decent race at Exeter last month.
Turning for home that day, it looked as if he was going to bolt up – but he ran out of steam up the home straight and ultimately could only finish a well beaten fourth.
That said, Whispering Harry, who finished a place in front of him that day, won a decent race at Haydock last Saturday, so the form looks good for the grade.
All the same, I am hoping that Upepito can leave it behind today and start fulfilling some of the potential that saw him quoted for a Championship race, 12 months ago.
If he doesn’t fire today, it’s not easy to choose between his rivals…
Malibu Son was on a roll, prior to unseating at Ascot last Saturday; Un Majeur Ulmes has run well in a couple of better class contests; whilst Quick Deccison is gradually coming to the boil and has won at Wincanton in the past.
That said, non of the 3 have the scope for progress that Upepito does – lets hope he starts fulfilling it this afternoon.

0.5pt wim Upepito 11/2


The other horse I was tempted by at Wincanton, is Master Neo.
He runs in the handicap chase at 3:25 – and if I knew that the forecast rain would arrive and get into the ground, I would take a risk on him. But I can’t be sure that will happen..
He looks an improved animal to me, this season: wining well at Market Rasen ,before running a huge race next time at Cheltenham.
His subsequent run at Aintree appeared disappointing – but he made shocking blunders at the first 2 fences and actually did well to even get round.
However, he has got a strong preference for soft/heavy ground – and it is currently good to soft at Wincanton.
Rain is forecast – and a lot of it. But it will need to arrive in good time and get into the ground. That might happen – or it might not.
If it does, I would have taken a risk at 15/2 – but without that knowledge, I don’t feel I can get involved…


Wetherby


I would be prepared to take on Broadway Buffalo in the Rowland Meryck chase at 1:45, despite him being a very impressive winner, just last Saturday…
He gets 7lb penalty for that win – but was value for more than that.
However, the race fell apart in front of him, so it’s questionable what the form is worth.
The trouble is, the 2 I fancy to beat him, are the next two in the betting: Cape Tribulation and Vintage Star.
Cape Tribulation is potentially very well handicapped – but has been a bit out of from; and whilst Vintage Star doesn’t have a lot in hand of his mark, the fitting of cheek pieces and the booking of James Reveley, could trigger sufficient improvement to get him home first.
It would literally be a toss of the coin – and at 7/1 the pair, I just didn’t feel there was quite enough margin to get involved….


Leopardstown

2:20

We were on Treat Yourself last time out, when he ran at Fairyhouse at the end of November.
He ran a decent enough race that day, without ever really looking likely to win.
However, one that did look likely to win – and for a good part of the race – was Way up in the Air…
She really caught my eye in the contest, travelling powerfully in rear division  – and making ground at most of the fences.
In fairness, she is a keen going sort (hence the hood) – so on her seasonal debut, you would maybe expect he to travel with verve.
That said, it’s not unreasonable to think she will have derived considerable benefit from her first run in 6 months – and if it has brought her on as I think it might have done, she really should be in the thick of things this afternoon.
She has already shown a lot of potential over fences – and I do think that a mark of 122 could underestimate her ability.
Certainly, I wouldn’t expect Treat Yourself to be able to exact his revenge on her as he is just 1lb better off for a 4 length beating (and he should have been the fitter of the pair).
Chances – or half chances – can be given to most of her rivals, with Some Tikket and Never Complain the two who I would be most wary of. That said, if Way up in the Air, has made the expected improvement from her debut run, then I think she is going to be difficult to beat this afternoon.

0.5pt win Way up in the Air 7/1



Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
 
Early
 
Kempton 1:25 Katgary 0.5pt win 8/1
Kempton 2:35 Purple Bay 0.25pt  win 20/1
Wincanton 1:05 Upepito 0.5pt win 11/2
Leopardstown 2:20 Way up in the Air 0.5pt win 7/1
 
Late
 
None
 
Mentions
 
Kempton 2:00 Creepy (O )
Kempton 3:10 Cue Card (O )
Wincanton 3:25 Master Neo (C )
Wetherby 1:45 Cape Tribulation (P )
Wetherby 1:45 Vintage Star (P )
 
Top Picks
 
None