There are 4 NH meetings today: Ffos Las, Sandown and
Wetherby in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
When
I first saw the declarations for today races, I was sure we were going to be in
for a busy day.
However, more detailed examination has produced fewer
tips that I expected.
It’s
not that I don’t fancy horses in races – I do. However, most of the races are
very competitive and the bookmakers margins, extremely tight.
I
guess I could fire out half a dozen tips – and would probably on a winner and
maybe a small profit.
But
I prefer bigger margins than that !
Consequently, it’s just 3 tips on the day – plus a load
of mentions.
I
would expect some of the mentions will be worth backing today,
however…
Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my other
thoughts.
Sandown
3:00
It’s
no surprise to see Polamco installed as favourite for this.
Trained by the upwardly mobile Harry Fry, he is chasing a
hattrick today, after recent wins at Wincanton and Newbury.
He
may well be capable of defying a 4lb weight rise for his latest win – but he has
little in hand of Saffron Wells on the book, and at 4/1 there is no value in his
price.
In
pure handicapping terms, a case can be made for Imperial Leader, but he needed
the run first time last season and I would rather look elsewhere for one, at a
price.
I
was half tempted by Invicta Lake, who we’ve been on the last twice he has run
and who could be dangerous today, if he gets a good pace to chase.
However, I’ve instead opted for the novice,
Anteros…
He
ran in a couple of decent handicaps earlier in the season, but finished well
beaten.
Furthermore, those runs were off marks lower than he
races off today…
However, since those two runs, he has acquitted himself
well in a couple of hot novice conditions events.
There is always a chance that conditions form might
flatter a horse (because of the way races can be run) and if we were just
looking at one god run, I’d be wary.
However, after running a huge personal
best to chase home Blaklion at Cheltenham, Anteros followed up that run, with a
creditable performance behind Three Musketeers at Warwick.
That
run suggests Anteros is well worth his current mark of 130 – but based on both
of the runs, the suggestion is that he is improving…
And
that is always a possibility with a young horse – and something that the betting
public might be slow to latch on to, until it is proven beyond reasonable
doubt.
Ofcourse, by the time that happens, you won’t be getting 16/1 on him
in a race like todays.
We’ll take a risk then – at a price – and in the hope
that if connections think it worth booking Barry Gerraghty, they might also
think they have a horse capable of going close.
0.25pt win Anteros 16/1
3:35
This
looks a very open race and consequently I think it is worth taking a chance on
one of the outsiders, Beforeall.
He
was a big improver last season, in his first campaign over fences, when
3 wins and 4
seconds saw his handicap rating rise from 105 to 131.
He’s
not done so well this season, failing to get close in his two runs so
far.
However, he’s been dropped a couple of pounds as a
consequence – and should also now be cherry ripe.
I
would expect him to try and dominate todays field.
He’s
generally a good jumper and with his low weight (helped by his riders 5lb
claim), he could prove difficult to pass, if he gets into a rhythm up
front.
Certainly it often pays to be close to the pace and out
of trouble in these big field handicaps – so hopefully that is where Beforeall
will be !
In
terms of dangers in the race, then there are plenty !
I’ll be keeping a
particularly close eye on Via Sundown, whom we’ve been on, the last twice he has
run.
That said, I would see Le Reve as probably the most likely winner
(though he is favourite); with Bertie Boru and Theres No Panic, two others who
could easily be involved at the finish.
That said, I could also see Beforeall
being involved – and he’s a significantly bigger price than all those mentioned
!
Fingers crossed then !
0.25pt win Beforeall 28/1
I
wanted to tip Ballygarvey in the 1:50 race, but something is stopping
me..
I’m
not sure what it is, because I think a price of 11/2 is more than
fair.
Maybe that’s the issue – I expected him to be shorter –
and I can’t see any reason why he isn’t.
Certainly, I think the handicapper was quite lenient just
giving him 4lb for his last time out win at Ascot.
If
he does blow out (and that’s my fear – if he runs to form, I think he’ll win),
then I could see Arkaim taking advantage.
Again, 12/1 looks a fair price – though he might just
lack a bit of class for a contest such as this.
In
the Scilly Isles novice chase at 2:25, I would be quite keen to take on
Champagne West.
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a very decent sort - I
just think that todays trip is too short for him.
There are plenty of options to oppose him with as
well.
Irish Saint is the most obvious one – and he is the most
likely winner. However, he represents no value at current odds (9/4).
Gitane de Berlais and Splash of Ginger have also both got
a chance - but if I were to get involved, it would probably be with the outsider
of the field, Grumeti..
Todays trip might stretch him – but I expect to see him
travel well and mount a challenge.
The
way to play it is probably to back him pre-race – and then lay off in running,
around the Pond fence (3 out).
If
he doesn’t get home, you won’t lose: if he does, you just might win !
Ffos Las
2:40
I
have to admit, I really thought I’d found one, when I stumbled across Edmund
Kean last night.
It
was one of those occasions, when the more you look at a horse, the more it all
makes sense.
I
was particularly happy with the double digit price that was on offer – as I knew
I could tip him early, thereby meaning that you should all get a
price.
And
then what happens ? A price crash before 6:00 ! Crazy !!
I
would hope that all of you got at least 8/1 – and many of you should have got
10/1 (it was that price with Ladbrokes when I issued - and again and 9:00 this
morning; and also with B365, from 8:30 this morning).
The
case for him is quite simple.
He’s
young progressive stayer, who will love todays trip and ground – and who has
probably been targeted at todays race.
His
last two runs have been n the Scottish Grand National and the Welsh grand
National (both top class races) and whilst he was pulled up in both races, he
ran much better than that implies.
The
Scottish race was run on ground faster than he would like, and he was pulled up
shortly after being hampered by a faller.
He
was also pulled up in the Welsh National – but he ran with real credit in the
race.
In
fact, he was moving with purpose down the back straight until lack of condition
presumably caught him out, rounding the home turn.
I would expect him to
strip much fitter today, with that run under his belt (his first for Pete
Bowen).
The
handicapper has seen fit to drop him 7lb for those two runs, which I suspect is
a mistake.
The
icing on the cake for him, is that he is own by Dai Walters, the man who set up
Ffos Las race course.
You
can therefore almost guarantee that he will be ready to run for his life this
afternoon – and if he is, I think he will take some beating…
Ziga
boy and Global Power are the two I fear most – but they head the betting.
I
would probably have a saver on the former if his price goes beyond 6/1 – but
that said, I am more than happy with my position on Edmund Kean.
0.5pt win Edmund Kean 10/1
A
bit like the 1:50 race at Sandown, I’ve turned the 1:30 race at Ffos Las over
numerous times – and fully expected a tip to drop out.
If
it did, it would likely be either Rouge et Blanc or O Maonlai.
I
could far easier justify the former, who is very well handicapped and should
love conditions. A 10lb claimer on top just adds to his case.
However a price of 9/2 is not what I’d hoped
for.
O
Maonlai is a completely different kettle of fish.
He
has nothing much in the book – and I am relying on the application of a tongue
tie to transform him.
If
it does then I think he has the talent to win today.
Apart from those two, however, chances can be given to
just about every other runner in the field !
Consequently, I had to reluctantly walk away from
it…
It’s
a similar story with the Welsh Champion hurdle, at 2:05.
I
started with A Doll in Milan and Puffin Billy: checked out Awaywiththegreys and
Williams Wishes – and ended up with Taj Badalandabad.
The
worrying thing is that I might still not have stopped on one that even gets
placed !
Another race to just watch, I’m afraid…
Wetherby
There are more trappy contests at Wetherby – starting
with the 2:10 race…
I
think Firth of the Clyde is the most likely winner – but at 5/1 he’s not a
betting proposition.
Pepite Rose and Mwaleshi both have chances – along with
Midnight Belle.
I
don’t think Indian Voyage will win (because I think the trip is too far) – but I
do think he might travel in a way that suggests he will.
If
you are that way inclined, you could back him early and lay him low in
running.
I
would expect he Towton novice chase at 3:20 to go to one of the market
leaders.
Ned Stark and Kaki De La Pree are both probably better than they
have so far shown (and they have already shown themselves to be better than most
of todays field).
A
case could also be made for Top Totti and I might have taken a chance on her at
a price - but that price would be bigger than 7/1.
I
could also see Straidnahanna running well – though I suspect that ultimately he
will be run down by one of the big guns.
Fairyhouse
There is a cracking mares hurdle at 1:55 – and I was
sorely tempted to take a chance on Rock on the Moor.
The
betting suggests that the race is between Morning Run and Carrigmorna Rock and
whilst I respect the chance of both of those two, I do rate Rock on the Moor.
The
trouble is, it’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on the various form
lines.
Worse than that, there are 2 or 3 other unexposed mares
in the race, who could also get involved.
My
plan was to put up Rock on The Moor each way – but I wonder how much I was being
influenced by an attractive price (16/1).
I’ve decide to just make her a
mention instead.
The
final one I was tempted by today, was All the Chimneys in the 3:40
race.
He
was a mention last time out and ran a cracker to finish fourth – weakening close
home.
He
opened at 14/1 this morning, which might have drawn me in – 16/1 definitely
would have done.
However, you now can’t beat 10/1 – and there are just too
many unknowns to play at that kind of price.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Early
Sandown 3:00 Anteros 0.25pt win 16/1
Sandown 3:35 Beforeall 0.25pt win 28/1
Ffos Las 2:40 Edmund Kean 0.5pt win 10/1
Late
None
Mentions
Sandown 1:50 Ballygarvey (C )
Sandown 2:25 Grumeti (C )
Ffos Las 1:30 Rouge et Blanc (P )
Ffos Las 1:30 O Maonlai (S )
Ffos Las 2:05 Taj Badalandabad (O )
Wetherby 2:10 Firth of Clyde (O )
Wetherby 3:20 Top Totti (O )
Fairyhouse 1:55 Rock on the Moor (S )
Fariyhouse 3:40 All the Chimneys (O )
Top Picks
None
