Daily write-up - Nov 13th

There are 3 NH meetings today: in the UK at Taunton and Ludlow; and in Ireland at Clonmel.

With the exception of the Clonmel Oil chase, this very much feels like a day in waiting – and with Cheltenham’s Open meeting just around the corner, I guess that is understandable…

A couple of apologies to start with;

Firstly for the late ‘no tips’ message this morning. As you will have seen when it did come through, I actually pressed ‘send’ at 7:50 – but for whatever reason, the message wasn’t actually sent.

This is a different problem to the distribution list one that has been blighting me – but just adds weight to the argument that I need a more robust mail delivery system.

I’ve had more issues in the past 2 weeks than I had in the previous 2 seasons…

Secondly, I want to apologise if the tone of my review last night came across as a bit negative.

Those who have been with me for years, will know that I use the reviews as an emotional discharge – as well as an objective review of the day !

My issue yesterday was that I had missed a couple of potential opportunities – and whilst that can get lost on a day when you have success, I feel it’s important to not lose sight of these things.

The season has got off to a tremendous start – but I doubt it will last. There will be tough times – and we need to have as many points in the bank as possible, for when those occur.

If I’d been more on the ball yesterday, we could have had a really good day – but like I said, it is difficult to tip with razor like incision, when you limit yourself to two fixed points during the morning and spend a couple of  hours producing a comprehensive write-up.

I appreciate it’s a balancing act – and I know that most of you love the write-ups - but producing them does have a negative impact on the tipping…

Anyway, enough of that – we’ve got an ROI of over 100% so far this season – everything in the garden is clearly rosey 

Just to say, I won’t produce a review today (as there are no tips).

I will however, issue an advanced tip notice at 18:00.

It’s the first day of the Cheltenham Open meeting tomorrow, and whilst that tends to be the quietest of the 3 days, there is still a slight chance that I might want to issue a tip this evening, for one of tomorrows big races…

On to today then…

Clonmel

The high-light of the day – and by some margin – is the Clonmel Oil chase.

 It sees a fascinating clash between Champagne Fever and Sizing Europe.

Whilst official weights suggest there should be little between the two – and with Sizing having the benefit of a run this season, there is an argument that he is a fair bet this afternoon, at 15/8…

However, Champagne Fever impressed me as much as any novice chaser last season – and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t make the 5 year age gap between the two, count today…

That said, if he’s not on his game – or if there are any lapses in his jumping, I have little doubt that Sizing will exploit them.

The betting suggests will be a 2 horse race – and I suspect that will be the case.

However, it will be worth watching all of the other runners closely, with an eye to the future…

I will be keeling a particular eye on both Rubi Light and Realt Mor.

The former ran third to Sizing off level weights, beaten just 2 lengths, a little over 12 months ago.

Reopposing today on 7lb better terms, you would think he would have a very good chance of reversing the form.
However, the wheels came off in spectacular fashion later in the season – and he is now rated just 145.

This is a horse who has been capable of running to a mark in the mid 160s.

If he can be cajoled back into form, he would have a chance today – if he runs with any sort of promise, he will definitely be one to consider next time out…

Similar comments apply to Real Mor.

He was in the process of running a nice race on his seasonal debut at Down Patrick in the JNWine chase, when he took a fall.

Assuming he is over that, todays trip will suit him better – and I could see him running a big race.

Again, if not today, then provided he shows some promise he is very much one for future weeks.

In summary then, probably not a betting race – but definitely a race to watch like a hawk !

There isn’t much else to get excited about on the Clonmel card…

I can’t see an angle into any of the handicaps – and the mare novice chase looks suitably tricky.

A watching brief then…

Taunton

There’s not a lot to get excited about at Taunton either…

In the opener, I was half interested in Unefille De Guye, who was very well backed last time out at Exeter – and showed definite ability.

She kicked for home half a mile out that day and got the rest of the field on the stretch.
However, she didn’t quite get home and you would have to be fearful that the same thing might happen today – particularly as she races over half a mile further.

Presumably she will be ridden with more restraint – and Taunton is a much sharper track – but all the same, there are enough doubts about a price of 7/2…

In the 2:10 race, By the Boardwalk was probably the closest that I got to a tip today…

He was in the process of running a nice race last time out, when he unshipped Jason Maguire at Kempton.

The main issue I have with him, is that I half expected him to fall, before he unseated his rider.

In short, he doesn’t look the safest of conveyances…

If he does get round, I think he will take the beating, as the favourite hardly looks a world beater – and there are question marks against all of his other rivals.

It would be nice to see Kings Apollo get a win under his belt in the 3:40 race.

The horse did me good service over hurdles at this time last season and I’m sure he has the ability to take a race such as todays…

However, there isn’t a lot of juice in his price – and whilst I would be happy enough opposing most of his rivals, Dushy Valley looks quite interesting on his debut for Jeremy Scott.

Just another mention then…

Ludlow

There is a fair handicap chase due off at 2:00 – and I’ll offer you 3 against the field, in Sin Bin, Big Casino and Kingcora.

Sin Bin has had no luck recently – but needs quick ground, so any rain would count against him.

Big Casino was well backed for a decent race at Ffos Las, last time out. He could only finished third that day, but time may show it was still a good run. The booking of 10lb claimer, Jamie Bargey will help offset his top weight.

Kingcora did little on his seasonal debut, but I suspect is capable of being better than his current mark of 119.

If forced, I would probably opt for Kingcora – but not with a great deal of confidence..

Finally, the novice handicap chase at 3:00 looks a bit of a minefield…

Tidal Way and Tashkaldo should go well, but I might be inclined to take a small risk on Vivaccio.

An ex French horse, he showed a bit of promise last season over hurdles, but should be more suited to fences this time round.

His hurdle runs have also resulted in him getting a fair opening mark over the bigger obstacles.

If not today, then I suspect he will exploit that at some point this season.

Here’s hoping you have a good day, if you do decide to get involved today !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

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Mentions

 

Clonmel 2:25 Realt Mor (S )

Taunton 1:10 Unefille De Guye (C )

Taunton 2:10 By the Boardwalk (C )

Taunton 3:40 Kings Apollo (P )

Ludlow 2:00 Kingcora (O )

Ludlow 3:00 Vivaccio (S )

 

Top Picks

 

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