Daily write-up - Nov 26th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon, at Fontwell and Wetherby…

It kind of goes without saying that yesterday was a bit irritating…

As you are all aware, I was keen to tip Strange Bird at Lingfield – but simply, the price didn’t quite reach the point I wanted, whilst the tipping window was open.

I had exactly the same issue with Stags Leap in week 2 – and it is difficult to know what I can do about it…

Unless I feel confident that a horse will win a race (in which case it will be a Top Pick), then I simply have to set a price limit.

If I start getting into tipping at under what I consider a ‘value’ price, then we are on a very slippery slope.

I’d set in my mind that I wanted 8/1 about Strange Bird yesterday.

There was a doubt over whether the trip would be far enough; she was jumping a fence in public for the first time – and she faced a couple of rivals who could have been much better than they had showed to that point.

She was no certainty !

That said, maybe 6/1 was a value price – that’s something I’ve been thinking about…

But whatever, I had set 8/1 in my head – and she didn’t go beyond 6/1 with any significant bookmakers, whilst I was able to tip.

Ofcourse, she opened up at 8/1 on course – and hopefully one or two of you backed her at that price.

But unfortunately, for the official P&L, she wasn’t a tip – and we really could have done with a winner.

Still, these things happen – I’ve just got to move on and try to find the next winner (only hopefully, this time tip it !).

I didn’t initially have high hopes for todays two meetings – but as is so often the case, an hour or two studying the form and I think I’ve found some interesting angles.

I’ve ended up issuing two tips on the day.

I waited on both, simply because the markets are so fragile early on.

I’m not sure how much more robust they are at 11:00 – but it still felt like the ‘right’ thing to do.

Here is the rationale behind the tips…

Wetherby

1:50

This is definitely the best race or the day – and I think there is a distinct possibility it will go to one of the lesser fancied horses…

Tresor De Bontee is the favourite – on the back of his last time out win at Lingfield. But he has a good record when fresh and has gone up 3lb for the win.

He is the benchmark for todays race – but I think it can be surpassed…

The 3 that interest me most in the race, are Vasco D’Ycy, Tiptoeaway and Quicyo.

Vasco D’Ycy is a horse that I’ve been watching for over a year now (I actually tipped him on New Years day).

He moved stables over the summer and made his debut for Jedd O’Keefe at Sedgefield at the end of last month.

That was his first run over fences, but he jumped very well – and travelled extremely sweetly for the first half of the race.

He then got outpaced when the paced quickened, before staying on late.

I guess that run could be interpreted in a number of ways, but my hope was that he needed it.

He was well supported in the market that day, suggesting that connections believe they have a well handicapped mark.

That is something I would concur with and hopefully he can prove the point this afternoon.

I think his 2 main dangers are Tiptoeaway and Quicyo.

Both have operated successfully at a higher level than todays, in the past – but both have had injuries that have kept them off the track for periods.

Today is likely to come down to whether their connections have got them fully tuned – and I suspect, certainly in the case of Tiptoeaway, that the market will guide us on that one.

If either of those horses have been primed for today, Vasco might not have enough class to cope with them – but if they haven’t, I think he is the one  to beat.

0.5pt win Vasco D’Ycy 11/2

Elsewhere on the Wetherby card, I would expect If In Doubt to prove different class to his rivals in the novice chase at 12:50.

Certainly he was different class to them over hurdles – and I whilst he unshipped his jockey early on his chasing debut at Exeter, I feel he can make amends for that today.

Similarly, I think Smiles for Miles will take some stopping under his penalty, in the handicap chase at 3:00.

He was a hugely impressive winner at Chepstow last week, when blinkered for the first time – and I’ll be surprised if a 7lb penalty stops him from following up this afternoon.

Fontwell

2:10

This is an incredibly poor race – and simply, I have to take a chance in it…

I was very taken by Gair Leat last time out, at Worcester in October.

That was only his second run over fences, under rules - but he jumped beautifully,  and travelled just as well…

The eventual winner, No Through Road, came along side him rounding the home turn – and he weakened from that point on.

He was beaten 30 lengths at the line – but No Through Road has since gone on and won 3 more races (and is now rated 30lb higher than he was that day); whilst the runner-up from the race, One for the Boss, also won on next time out.

In short, it was good form for the grade…

And that really is in short supply in this race.

I can understand why Alteranthela is favourite. However, he’s not run for 6 months –and he was pulled up on that day.

He is well weighted on his defeat by Volio Vincente in this race 12 months ago – but they were the only 2 finishers in an exceptionally weak contrest, so the form probably isn’t worth very much.

All the same, you would expect Alteranthela to hold Volio on that run.

Of the other 2 in the field, then there is a strong suggestion that Cypress Grove wants decent ground – not the heavy he will get today; and whilst Promised Wings, could in theory be different class (based on his hurdles form) – he is notoriously unwilling and showed virtually no aptitude for fencing, when he ran over the bigger obstacles at Lingfield earlier in the month.

In summary, Gair Leat seems to have Alteranthela to beat – and the odds on him doing that, shouldn’t be 10/1 !

0.25pt win Gair Leat

The only other race of interest on the Fontwell card, is the novice handicap chase at 1:10.

The one that catches my eye here, is The Rebel Panther. He will be making his fencing debut for new trainer Jamie Snowdon, but I suspect that will show him in better light than hurdles did.

That said, I have some concerns over both today’s ground – and the distance of the race (I think he wants quicker ground – and a shorter trip).

Maybe the two will cancel each other out ! – but I really couldn’t tip based on that hope.
He should be worth watching all the same…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Wetherby 1:50 Vasco D’Ycy 11/2

Fontwell 2:10 Gair Leat 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Wetherby 12:50 If in Doubt (P )

Wetherby 3:00 Smile for Miles (P )

Fontwell 1:10 the Rebel Panther (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None