Daily write-up - Nov 18th

There are 3 NH meetings today:  at Doncaster and Fakenham in the UK – and Wexford in Ireland.

To be honest, most of the days racing is uninspiring stuff…

The meeting at Fakenham is as poor as you’ll see – and the one at Wexford isn’t much better.

In truth, the Doncaster meeting is hardly exceptional – however there are a couple of decent chases – and I’m managed to find a horse in each of them…

The recent wet spell threatens to be an issue – but Doncaster invariably produce ground that rides quicker than elsewhere, so I tend to be inclined to look a little bit harder there.

Let’s hope my efforts are rewarded this afternoon !

Doncaster

1:50

I’ve got to be honest, if the novice hurdle that closed the card at Leicester yesterday hadn’t been run, we wouldn’t be on Rhapando today…

That race was won by Fingers Crossed, and in doing so, he broke a 57 runner losing streak for the stable of Paul Webber, that stretched back to the start of this year.

Now obviously, one swallow doesn’t make a summer – but all the same, the victory of Fingers Crossed did demonstrate that Webber is still capable of training a winner !

In truth, ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ stables are never simply about the number of winners (which is how they are measured), and Webber has had a few run with credit recently, so I’m not basing a stable return to form on a single horse – but all the same, it’s nice to get a winner.

Certainly if we ignore the stable form, then I think Rhapando is a very interesting contender for this race…

He has only run 4 times over hurdles – 6 times in total – and he’s shown promise on virtually every run.

Most notably, his debut run over hurdles at Kempton, when he finished fourth behind Vaniteux and Vibrato Voltat (leading to the second last); and at Doncaster, when he occupied the same position behind Un Ace (beaten less than 10 lengths).
All 3 of those horses are now rated 140+ - so Rhapando clearly has some scope off a mark of just 112 today.

He started the season on a mark 2lb higher, when running in a very decent novice handicap hurdle at Ascot.

He was held up that day and didn’t show a great deal – but as a consequence, he got a few pounds off his rating and a bit of sharpness.

I hope his is ridden more forcefully today - his best runs have all been when he’s been on the pace.

And whilst the has never jumped a fence in public, it looks for all the world as if that’s exactly what he wants.

As you might expect with it being a novice race, it is difficult to get a proper handle on all of his rivals.

The Paul Nicholls trained Vide Cave looks potentially interesting. He went off like a scalded cat, when last seen at Newton Abbot in May. He didn’t get home that day – but if he is amenable to restraint today, he could potentially be dangerous.

Urcalin is another one I could fear – if the re-applied cheek pieces wake him up.

Whilst money for the Mick Easterby trained Saint and Sinners, on a Yorkshire track, has to be a concerned. He has the form to go very close today – even if he doesn’t have the scope of a few of the others.

The nature of the contest means it’s impossible to be dogmatic. However, I’ve already seen plenty in Rhapando to feel confident he has the potential to be much better than his current rating of 112 over fences.
Hopefully that will be enough to see him home in front this afternoon…

0.5pt win Rhapando 15/2

2:50

He may only have run twice under rules – but if you’ve watched his previous runs, it’s impossible not to be taken by Crazy Jack…

He made his racecourse debut in a maiden chase at Towcester in May over a trip of 2 miles. Now even though Towcester is a very stiff track, 2 miles was always likely to be on the short side for a horse with winning PTP form over 3 miles in his native Ireland.

And so it proved, with his jockey, David Bass, after him for pretty much every yard of the trip.

But the horse kept gamely finding for pressure, and ultimately won quite cosily.

It was a similar story when he returned over hurdles at Exeter, late last month.

Again he was under pressure from a fair way out – but again, he kept on finding for that pressure.

This time, he was out speeded on the run-in – but he lost little in defeat, finishing second to a potentially decent sort.

If I have an issue with Crazy Jack, it’s that he might be harshly handicapped…

The problem is (and this would also have been a problem for the official handicapper), it’s nearly impossible to rate the form he has achieved so far.

His Maiden chase win at Towcester was probably worth a mark of around 110: his novice hurdle run at Exeter is very difficult to rate because nothing in the race had a rating…

I think his connections can consider themselves a touch unlucky to have been given an opening mark of 123 – but I bet he ultimately ends up rated a fair bit higher than that…

I suppose the danger is that his connections might ‘sulk’ today – let him run a poor race, which will likely result in his handicap mark dropping 6 or 7lb – and then strike. That’s a risk we’ll have to take (but the betting should prepare us, if that is the case).

If they do opt to run him on his merits today (and I would hope - and think - they will), then the step up in trip to 2m4f will be massively in his favour (I actually think he will peak at 3miles+).

Generally speaking, his rivals are far more exposed…
Shadows Lengthen was a very good winner last time out – but is up 8lb for that win and won’t appreciate todays softer ground; whilst I would expect Baile Anrai to come on for todays run.

The one that interested me most, was the Alan King trained Uriah Heap.

He’s young enough to still be progressing – and should find todays trip and ground, perfect.

However, he was a bit fortunate to win last time out at Ludlow (his main rival made a couple of late blunder that cost him the race) and he was raised 5lb for that effort.

That might just have scuppered his chances today…

Because of his profile, Crazy Jack has to be a bit risky today, as there is a chance that he’s not up to this class.

However, if he is, then I think his attitude will make him very difficult to beat – as he really is a horse who just keeps on giving !

0.5pt win Crazy Jack 15/2

There’s very little else of interest – either on the rest of the Doncaster card –or at Fakenham and Wexford.

Still, if Rhapando and Crazy Jack do the business, I don’t suppose we’ll be caring too much about that !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Doncaster 1:50 Rhapando 15/2

Doncaster 2:50 Crazy Jack 9/2

 

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