Review of the day

I guess non of you would have been to be too surprised by the way things panned out this afternoon…

On a day that seemed to typify the month – and the last week in particular – I managed to take a short list of 3 horses and tip 2 seconds, whilst electing not to put up a winner.

It’s almost as if a greater power is trying to make the point that content of the write-ups is more valuable than the actual tips !

I don’t want to pre-empt the monthly report, but I honestly think that my reading of the races in March, has been stronger than at any other point in the season – however a combination of poor luck and poor judgement has prevented it from being a month to remember.

To illustrate the point, when Ballybough Pat came home second this afternoon, he became the 8^th tip this month to occupy that position (from 22 tips).
When you consider that I have also tipped 3 winners during the month, that really does represent phenomenally consistent tipping…

Anyway, there will be more on that in a couple of days – this review is just about how todays tip/mentions ran.

The first tip into action was No Buts.

He was very well backed, going off 7/2 second favourite – and when the favourite, Horizontal Speed, fell at the second fence, the race looked to be his for the taking.

However, his jumping lacked its normal fluency.

He too made a mistake at the second – and numerous more as the race progressed.

It says much for his ability that he managed to stay within striking distance of Seventh Sky for as long as he did – but ultimately the errors took their toll and he could only come home a well beaten second.

Just ten minutes later, Ballybough Pat managed to fill exactly the same position at Chepstow – but he went far closer to victory.

Turning into the home straight he had most of the field beaten – but he just couldn’t shake off Candide.

Ballybough Pat still seemed the most likely winner, as Candides jumping was nowhere near as slick.

However, when he ranged up along side Ballybough Pat approaching the final fence I feared the worst – and sure enough Candide took full advantage of the 15lb he was receiving from the runner up, and managed to hold him at bay, up the run in.

It was another tough one to take – and we’ve had a few of those this month…

With regard to the mentions, then the main one of the day, was Rhapando…

I put him up last week in a weaker race than todays, and I think we can now feel a little hard done by.

He was withdrawn from that contest and was only available at half the price for todays race.
I knew that wouldn’t stop him winning - but it did make him marginal value.

Needless to say, he laughed in the face of value and came home a comfortable winner…

He was the only winning mention on the day: Verano never really featured in the opener at Warwick; whilst Smart Story was pulled up after racing prominently in the handicap chase at the same venue.

Thecorrupter made little show at Kempton – but did better than Right Story, who jinked and unshipped his rider as the tape went up (having been hammered in the betting to 11/2 from 16/1 earlier).

Finally, good old Luddsdenene ran exactly the race I expected at Chepstow.

He was 12 on BF at the off, having been 20 earlier on – but managed to touch 3 in running up the home straight, before folding into a ball.

If the horse could breath properly, he would be a champion – but he can’t and when he comes under pressure he stops.
Good job all the layers haven’t picked up on that fact just yet 

Tomorrow is the last day of the season (excluding Aintree) and having had a quick look at the declarations, I suspect it will be a quiet day.

That said, I’ll spend this evening, in the same way that I have spent most evening over the past 5 months, trying to find a winner.

I’ll advise on whether I manage to find anything suitable, at the normal time tomorrow morning.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 30th

There are 3 meeting this afternoon, at Warwick, Kempton and Chepstow.

The penultimate day of the TVB season…

And there is some pretty good racing – certainly for a Monday.

Finding a tip or two, was relatively easy to do – though I won’t bore you with the difficulties surrounding actually issuing them !

Suffice to say that the price of No Buts crashed – though as I said this morning, it was already tumbling – and I’m aware that it was tipped by another tipster shortly after I’d sent it out…

The price of Ballybough Pat dropped a couple of points as well – but I think that is to be expected.

I will always believe there is at least a 20% margin in the price of any tips I issue – so you should use that as your guide when deciding whether a price is acceptable…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Warwick

3:25

The market for this race is made by Horizontal Speed, who was fourth in the novice handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham festival.

He ran really well that day and his final placing doesn’t flatter him – however, I suspect he had an exceptionally hard race and as we saw yesterday with Zareb, there is every chance that a hard race at the festival will leave its mark…

No Buts also ran at the festival – but he never really featured in the 2m4f handicap chase run on day 3.

That was a very rough race – and No Buts was given quite a hard ride from the third last – but couldn’t make sufficient ground on the leaders to mount a challenge.

I am slightly concerned that the race may have left a mark – however, he was only under pressure for half about half a mile, so hopefully he will have got away with it.

If he has, then I think he has a very good chance of going close today.

He is well handicapped off mark of 137 – just 7lb higher than when running away with a decent race at Newbury earlier in the season.

There have been excuses for his 2 below par runs since then (the second of which was the festival run) – and so I’m hoping everything will click into place this afternoon.

One factor which I am hoping will be key, is the return of Tom Scudamore in the saddle – he has been missing on his last two runs but has been on board when the horse has run its best races (two wins and two seconds).

The horse has run well round Warwick twice before, so there should be no issue with the track. He will also have ground conditions to suit, so I am optimistic of a very big show.

Aside from the favourite, then it is some of the longer priced horses that I would be most fearful of…

Drumshambo is now a very well handicapped horse – and the application of first blinkers and a return to 2m4f could see him running a very big race.

If Venetia was in better form I would certainly be very concerned about him – regardless, I can see him running a big race.

The other two of interest are Ciceron and Benefit Cut. Both have a lot of question marks over them - but I both also have the ability to run big races this afternoon…

0.5pt win No Buts 7/1

Our old friend Merano runs in the opening event on the card – and I can see him running a big race.

We were on him last time out when he won at Uttoxeter and off a mark just 6lb higher there is no reason why he won’t run another big race this afternoon.

That said, I think this is a deeper race than the one he contested last time. I managed to resist the 11/2 early – so the 3/1 on offer now holds very limited appeal…

In the 2:55 race, Smart Story catches my eye…

He has absolutely no form to recommend him, so he could never be a bet. However, this is a very poor race and I think it is interesting that he gets to run for the first time over fences under rules, in a handicap.

He finished second on his only run in a PTP – and if he has even a modicum of ability, todays race is there for the taking…

Chepstow

3:35

Ballybough Pat is a horse that you should all be familiar with by now, as I’ve already tipped him twice this season.

The first occasion was when he made his seasonal debut over hurdle in the Lanzarote at Kempton - and then when he made his chasing debut in a small race at Leicester.

He didn’t win on either of those occasions – but he ran with credit both times.

As a consequence, he was well backed on his third outing of the season, in a decent handicap chase at Sandown.
However he disappointed that day and was eventually pulled up after making a number of mistakes.

He was also pulled up on his most recent outing – but he ran with much more credit that day.

That was at Taunton, over an extreme trip of 3m5f and after travelling well for most of the race, Ballybough Pat just didn’t get home…

He is dropped back to 3 miles today – and the handicapper has dropped him 6lb.

As a consequence, he is able to sneak into todays 0-120 race with top weight.

I am hoping that the drop in class will enable him to get back on the winning track…

In fairness, it does look quite an open race and I could give a chance to most of the runners.

The other one that catches my eye is the Venetia trained Spirit D’Amor – but it seems quite significant that Aidan Coleman rides Ballybough Pat in preference to him.

At the end of the day, this comes down to prices and perceived value – and at 12/1 I think it worth taking a small risk that Ballybough Pat can bounce back to form.

0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 12/1

The other horse of interest running at Chepstow this afternoon, is Luddsdenene…
He has his second outing for Alex Dunne in the finale – and his first for her over fences…

He is not well handicapped – and he is better over hurdles than over fences.
Against that, he is quite a big price – and will doubtless travel through the race.

If you are that way inclined, you could probably back him  pre-race and lay off for a profit in-running.

Though I some how doubt that a win only bet on him will collect…

Kempton

The third horse that I considered tipping this morning was Rhapando, who runs in the handicap chase at 4:20…

I tipped him at Southwell last week, but he was withdrawn from the race mid morning.

We got 13/2 about him that day in a race that looked weaker than todays.

He opened up last night at 6/1 – but you would have struggled to get 4/1 this morning  (he is 7/2 now).

I think he is quite capable of wining a race like todays, but he comes with risks - not least of which is the form of his stable.

At a price, I would have risked him – but he just doesn’t feel like a strong 7/2 shot to me…

His stale companion, Thecorrupter, is of some interest in the preceding race on the card.

He has even more question marks hanging over him than Rhapando – but at least you can get a price on him.

In fairness, that is due in part to him taking on some potentially decent opposition.

All the same, he might be worth a small EW interest at he 14/1 generally on offer…

Finally, I think that Right Step looks over priced in the handicap hurdle at 4:55.

He won well on his penultimate outing before apparently finding the ground too quick last time out.
He has run well over todays course and distance previously and isn’t too badly handicapped.

He does face some potentially decent rivals - but his price of 16/1 again offers EW possibilities…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Warwick 3:25 No Buts 0.5pt win 7/1

Chepstow 3:35 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Warwick 2:20 Merano (O )

Warwick 2:55 Smart Story (S )

Chepstow 5:15 Luddsdenene (C )

Kempton 3:50 Thecorrupter (O )

Kempton 4:20 Rhapando (P )

Kempton 4:55 Right Step (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Daily write-up - Mar 29th

There are a couple of NH meetings this afternoon at Ascot and Limerick…

The Ascot card is very good indeed – however, the possibility of significant rain means that the going would have to be guessed and that just seems like a pointless risk to take…

Before I get on to my thoughts on the afternoon, just a few quick words of thanks to all of you who contacted me yesterday…

I was wrong in my statement that only 1 of you backed Mr Burbidge on Friday – it would appear that around 10 of you covered your bet on Le Fin Bois with him (one of you was even smart enough to do the forecast ).

Furthermore, I was also pleased to receive such a resounding vote of confidence for the write-ups in general…

I fully understand that you are all busy guys – and I don’t expect you all to read and act on every word, every day.

However, I would like to think that most of you do read/skim read the write-ups whenever you can – and your betting activity is duly influenced by them.

I know this isn’t the case for everyone – but my feeling is that it is the case for more than half of you – and I’m happy enough working with an audience of that size.

Ultimately, it is an individuals choice as to whether they take advantage of everything the service offers.

If people just want to follow the tips, then it is their choice/loss.

Provided the appetite to receive them exists amongst the majority, I will continue to produce them – and hopefully you will continue to profit from them…

On to today then…

Without the rain, I would have been very keen on Creevytennant in the handicap chase at 4:10.

He last ran in leg 2 of the veterans series at Exeter and the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well.

He will be relatively fresh today – and should get an uncontested lead.

On good ground I would be very keen on him.

However, he barely stays 3 miles – and he doesn’t like soft ground.

If you combine the two, I can see a scenario where he weakens up the home straight…

If the ground does get very soft, then Relax would have a very good chance; whilst without the rain, I would have been most fearful of Wayward Prince (assuming he can go close to repeating his last time out Doncaster form).

In the novice chase at 2:30, rain would likely swing the balance in favour of Puffin Billy ahead of Thomas Crapper.

The latter prefers a decent surface, whilst the former want it soft.

The race does look likely to go to one of the two of them…

The juvenile hurdle at 3:05 is very tricky to unravel.

If you could take the form at face value, then I think Zarib would be the one to beat.

He ran really well in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival – but there is a chance that the run took a lot out of him.

He is closely matched with Unanimite on that form – and that one has first time blinkers applied today, which could make a difference.

The other one I think is of interest, is Sternrubin.
He is clearly quite quirky – but I suspect he has a lot of talent and will benefit from competing in a strong race.

I think there is a chance that he might get overlooked in the betting – and he could be worth an interest if getting to a price of 8/1 or bigger.

The other one that caught my eye was Prairie Town.

I really wanted to be able to make a case for him at a price, but I couldn’t quite do it.

That said, I would still be wary of him…

Turn Over Sivola should really be the one in the novice handicap chase at 3:40 – but he’s another one who would prefer quick ground.

The same is true of Un Ace – which is a shame as those two looked the best handicapped horses in the race.

I’m a big fan of both Top Gamble and Royal Regatta – and I like the fact that both of them missed Cheltenham.

However, they have both shot up the handicap this season – and you do wonder how much more improvement they have got in them.

Finally, I could have been tempted to take a chance on What a Warrior over hurdles in the 4:45 race – but again, he prefers quick ground.

If the rain stays away, then he would be worth a small interest on a track that he likes and with a very capable claimer in the saddle…

There’s not much equine talent to get excited about at Limerick – but the presence of Joseph O’Brien riding his fathers Egyptian Warrior in the novice hurdle at 3:30, could be very significant.
Young Joseph has always struggled with his weight and maybe this is the first of many rides over jumps for him.

Who knows, in time he might turn out to be the next AP !! (though I kind of doubt it !)

Good luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Review of the day

There was no joy this afternoon for either of the tips – and, aside from the price crash on Road to Freedom, not a lot to report either…

He was 16/1 generally when I issued the tip this morning – but was backed down to as low as 6/1 before the off.

His SP was 7/1, which I think was a closer reflection of his chance in the race – and he was still in with a bit of a chance, when he unshipped his rider at the third last fence.

I was right about the race taking very little winning – and it was left to last seasons winner, Little Jimmy, to follow up, beating a horse who was 16lb out of the handicap.

Poor stuff indeed…

It was a similar story with the days other tip, What a Good Night.

He ran a fair race, but was beaten after the third from home.

I was actually quite disappointed with him, as I could see no reason why he wouldn’t run his race (and I don’t really think he did).

The race was won by Midnight Lira – and I could see plenty of reasons why she wouldn’t run her race, but she did !

She got the better of Edmund Kean (who would have been an irritating winner) – and Forgotten Gold.

My initial plan was to put the latter up EW – but as you know, I’m not a big fan of EW betting…

That seems to be the way things have been going, lately…

There was not a lot to report with the mentions, either.
Street Entertainer ran no sort of the a race in the opener, which again, was not what I expected.

The race was won at a huge price, by Oyster Shell (40/1).

We were on him on his penultimate run, when I took a chance on him at a big price in a similar race over fences.

He could only finish second that day – but was a gutsy winner today.

Over at Uttoxeter, Manbalandall ran a lifeless race. I don’t think he’ll be winning this season. Whilst I also wouldn’t be feeling overly optimistic about the chances of Flemenstar every recapturing his former greatness.

Although he travelled well enough, his jumping lacked fluency and he was beaten as soon as he was put under pressure.

With the clocks going forward tonight, we should be in for an early start tomorrow.

And whilst there is a very good meeting at Ascot, that seems a little unnecessary.

I’ll therefore resist sending anything out before 9:00.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 28th

There are just 3 NH meeting this afternoon: at Stratford and Uttoxeter in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

It’s the first day of the flat turf season; the clocks go forward tomorrow, the daffodils are in full bloom - my work for the season is all but done…

Just 4 days of the TVB season remain – excluding Aintree – and they are all likely to be quite low key…

Based on the feedback I got from yesterday, it would appear that only one person with the service, backed Mr Burbidge as a saver to Le Fin Bois…

I’ve got to be honest and say that I find that surprising – and a little disappointing…

I felt that I made it as clear as I could have done, that he would have been a tip, if the price had been available – but the bookmakers weren’t playing ball and pushing the price out (there was a lot of money available to back at 9+ on BF).

I guess what it does, is make me question whether it is worth me putting in the hours to produce the write-ups…

I honestly think that the time I spend on those could be used to make the tipping more effective: either more profitable as it is now – or less profitable, but more accessible (ie. profitable at SP).

The way I operate now, the actual tip issuing is a relatively minor part of the service.

I have the windows where I check prices and issue – but that is it.
The rest of my efforts go into the write-up, trying to guide you guys towards profitable angles.

I feel that is best use of my time, because, as you all know, issuing prescriptive tips nowadays, is getting harder and harder (the prices crash – and you all get your accounts closed).

However, if the write-ups are generally being ignored, then there is clearly little point in me producing them…

I need to give some thought to what I do with the service for next season, but my feeling is that something needs to change.
I’ll cover the area more fully in the end of season report – and maybe also issue another questionnaire to gauge your views.

Anyway, on to today – the final Saturday of the season…

I’ve got to be honest, finding a tip wasn’t easy – but I managed to find a couple (and one of them seems quite popular !).

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Stratford

3:00

This looks quite a poor race and I felt it worth taking a small risk on an unexposed horse, at a price…

The market is made by On the Case, Lambs Cross and last years winner, Little Jimmy.

However, non of them are world beaters – and only On The Case could really be described as ‘progressive’, so the standard isn’t high…

Even so, I‘ve no idea whether Road to Freedom will be up to the job – but he is a totally unexposed chaser, with plenty of scope for improvement, so I think it is worth taking a chance on him.

He has only run under rules 6 times in his life, with his best performance coming when runner up in a novice hurdle at Towcester last May.

He’s a big scopey sort, so it was no surprise to see him immediately put over fences this season – and he made his debut in a hot race at Newbury, won by O Maonlai.

Unfortunately, he fell in that race – and it was far too early to say how he might have fared if he hadn’t.

Having said that, I liked the way he was moving – and jumping - until his departure…

His only subsequent run was at Uttoxeter – and that wasn’t anywhere near as good.

However, the ground that day was pretty desperate – and I think he just didn’t handle it (his good novice hurdle run at Towcester was on much better ground).

I’m hoping that today, back on decent ground – and against opposition that sits somewhere between limited and desperate, Road to Freedom will be able to show what he is capable of.

0.25pt win Road to Freedom 16/1

4:10

It’s almost the end of a long season for a number of horses and I think there are a few that you can put a line through in this particular race…

There are also a few who would require a bit of an act of faith to support – so I am happy enough to narrow it down to 3 or 4…

Maybe not too surprisingly, they all sit at the head of the market – and the one of those with least question marks against him is What a Good Night…

I first noticed him when he bolted up over todays course and distance, at the beginning of last season, when under the care of Nigel Twiston Davies…

He looked a horse destined to go places that day – but that just didn’t happen and the remainder of the season was a big disappointment.

He was transferred in to the stable of Dan Skelton over the summer and bolted up on his first start for him at Uttoxeter, back in October.

He should have followed up on his next outing at Southwell, but he fell the second last, when well clear. However, he made amends for that mishap when winning a decent event at Wetherby in November.

As he is a horse with a preference for decent ground, he was then put away for the winter months, with a view to a spring campaign.

He made his comeback at Ludlow at the back end of last month, but unfortunately lost his jockey when trying to avoid a faller at the fifth fence.

So, on to today…

Trip, ground and track are perfect – and the horse should be raring to go. In short, he has ticks in every box.

I don’t think it is possible to make such a good case for any of his rivals – though I am a little fearful of one or two…

Forgotten Gold is probably the one who worries me most – particularly with Jamie Bargery on board. He has been a bit disappointing this season – but has dropped significantly in the weights as a result. I could also see him appreciating the quicker ground. A big run would not come as a surprise !

Edmund Keen is a similar sort – though my feeling is that he would prefer slower ground…

I can see the case for In Fairness – but don’t think it is as compelling as that for What  a Good Night; whilst Auvergnat is clearly of some interest on his debut over fences in this country. If he gets to a silly price, he would also be worth a saver.

0.5pt win What a Good Night 9/2

The opener on the card looks an absolute minefield !
There are a number of horses who ‘could be anything’ – specifically, Lanceur, Maxie T and Bombadero.

I could see Oyster Shell outrunning his odds – if he consents to start: whilst he money for  Such a Legend looks very interesting…

I wouldn’t play in the race with any confidence, but if I did have a go, it would be with a straight bat on Street Entertainer. His run at Cheltenham back in November makes him just about the form choice – and in the circumstances, 20/1 is a big price…

Uttoxeter

There is little of interest at Uttoxeter, though our old friend, Manballandall, is worth of a quick mention in the 3:50 race…

We were on him on his penultimate run at Newbury, when he really should have won – but was passed close home.
He also finished second on his next run at Chepstow – but was more comfortably beaten that day…

The worry is that he might have missed his chance – but he probably sets the standard for the race, non the less.

I wouldn’t back him at 9/4 – but I wouldn’t oppose him either…

Navan

The high light of the Navan card is the return to action of Flemenstar, after 16 months on the sidelines…

If he is anywhere near his best, he will win today – it is as simple as that.

I suspect that connections will have left something to work on – with the big spring festivals, particularly Punchestown, on the horizon.

He therefore can’t be betting material – though the 7/2 on offer, is quite tempting !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Stratford 3:00 Road to Freedom 0.25pt win 16/1

Stratford 4:10 What a Good Night 0.5pt win 9/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Stratford 1:50 Street Entertainer (O )

Uttoxeter 3:20 Manballandall (P )

Navan 4:25 Flemenstar (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Review of the day

I’m in a bit of a state of shock after today…!

Just how I managed to lose, I’ve no idea – hopefully those of you who use the write-ups made the day pay, as I should have done ‘officially’…

There was only one tip on the day – and I guess that was the main mistake.

In my defence, it is so difficult issuing tips mid week.

The prices aren’t properly there – and the markets are so weak.

I tipped Le Fin Bois this morning – and I was pretty keen on him.

It didn’t surprise me that he was backed into 4/1 fav at the off – or that he ran a really good race.

It also didn’t overly surprise me that he couldn’t quite get past Mr Burbidge.

He was the one I identified as the main danger this morning – and he got the run of the race, with an uncontested lead.

If the price had been there this morning, I would have tipped him as a saver – but 13/2 was the best available, even though 8/1 was comfortably available on BF.
His SP was 8/1 as well – so there really was no excuse for not getting on.

The trouble is, officially, it just wasn’t possible for me to get that price.

I guess it comes with the territory – and I would be interested to know how many of you backed Mr Burbidge regardless (I go on about this not just being a tipping service, for very good reason !).

So far as the mentions went, then things didn’t get a whole lot better !

The days ‘main’ mention, Greenlaw, managed to get back up to win a thriller at Wetherby: Whilst the other ‘proper’ mention, Avidity, also won at Newcastle (getting the better of Emril Silk, who was my original fancy for the race).

Greenlaw is another who I would have tipped if the price had been properly there – but it wasn’t…

Prince of Pirates also ran a cracker – but just couldn’t muster enough speed to put down an effective challenge. If he can build on todays run, he will be winning races sooner rather than later.

Purple Harry justified strong market support in the last - meaning that Azure Glamour  (who ran no sort of race and was pulled up), was the only poor advice of the day…

Yet somehow, the official P&L reads –0.5pt – I do hope that’s not how it looked for you all…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 27th

There are a couple of NH meetings this afternoon: at Wetherby and Newcastle…

I had little in the way of expectations for the day, so I was pleasantly surprised to see that both are reasonable cards.

If I’d been feeling bold, I could probably have found 3 or 4 tips – but I’m happy to settle on the best one of the bunch…

The ground is again a bit of a concern: the suggestion is that it will be on the quick side – I’m hoping it won’t be too fast - but time alone will tell…

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and a few other thoughts…

Wetherby

3:55

Le Fin Bois caught my eye on his most recent outing, at Taunton.

That was in a class 3 handicap, over 2m4f, in the middle of January.

Le Fin Bois absolutely tanked his way through that race, until either the ground – or the distance – caught him out up the home straight.

He eventually came home 4^th – beaten 20 lengths - but I’m sure he is better than that result implies.

The handicapper took it at face value however, and dropped him 5lb.

That’s a total of 17lb he’s been dropped since he made his UK debut in the Fred Winter hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

Ofcourse, the handicapper may have got his initial mark completely wrong – however his French form looks decent enough – and I suspect it is more a case of Le Fin Bois taking a bit of time to adjust to life in the UK.

He runs off a mark of 120 today, which means he can just sneak into this class 4 race, with top weight.

Dickie Johnson goes to Wetherby for just the one ride: and he is the only horse that Tim Vaughan sends to the course.

Talking of Vaughan, his horses are now running much better, than they were when Le Fin Bois last ran, which I would see as another positive…

In terms of opposition, then this race is actually a little hotter than I would have liked…

I’m not too worried about the likes of Mad for Road and Knight in Purple. They are both exposed – and I would hope that Le Fin Bois can take care of them.

Of more concern, are the unexposed pair of Mr Burbidge and Arthurs Secret.

Both of those have as much potential as Le Fin Bois – though I also think that both have a bit more to prove…

Personally, I’ve saved my stake on Mr Burbidge. You can get 8/1 on BF and at that price, I would probably have 0.25pt on him. However, he’s a best price of 13/2 with the bookmakers…

Hopefully it will prove to be unnecessary insurance, as I hope to see Le Fin Bois settled in behind by Dickie – before pouncing jumping the last !

0.5pt win Le Fin Bois 13/2

In the previous race on the card, I got quite close to tipping Greenlaw…

I would have done at 5/1 – and possibly, if 4/1 had been more generally available.

However, he was that price with only 1 bookmaker, so realistically, you would have been taking 7/2…

I think that’s about right.
I would make him favourite to beat Vasco D’Ycy – and there is little else in the race that really frightens me.

The one exception would be Green Wizard.
His jumping can be hairy, so he’s not for the faint hearted. However a price of 14/1 probably under-estimates his ability, a little…

The other race of interest at Wetherby, is the handicap hurdle at 2:50…

At some point, Prince of Pirates will bounce back to form – and it could be today, in first time blinkers.

He will be running off a mark of 105 – a full 30lb lower than the mark he was successful from over fences 2 years ago.

That is quite a spectacular fall – and whilst his recent performances justify it – if the head gear has the desired effect, he clearly has plenty of scope from his existing mark…

He’s a general 14/1 shot at the moment – but I suspect he will get backed if he is going to bounce back to form…

Newcastle

The handicap hurdle at 4:15 is probably the high light of the Newcastle card – but it’s a tough race to unravel…

I was initially drawn to Emral Silk back going left handed - but I worry about the drop in trip for him…

There is the possibility that Pearl Castle will prove himself different class to his rivals - but there is also the possibility that he will need the run…

I wouldn’t rule out either Robbie or Lightening Rod, at big prices – but if forced to side with one, it would be Avidity.
He disappointed when favourite on his penultimate outing, but bounced back to form when the tongue tie was reapplied last time.

Provided the ground isn’t too quick, I think he will run a big race.

The previous race on the card (3:40) is just as trappy…

A case of sorts could be made for just about every runner.

I would normally side with an outsider in such a situation – and Orsippus looks the most interesting at a price.

However, ignoring price, I would probably go for And the Man.
He bounced back to form on his penultimate run and wasn’t definitely beaten when falling last time out.

If he can put in a clear round today, then he should go close…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:10, I would tentatively suggest Azure Glamour, on his handicap debut: whilst in the closing event on the card, the booking of Nico De Boinville for Purple Harry, really catches the eye.
That said both horses face huge fields and neither are at the kind of price where I would be tempted to take a risk…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Wetherby 3:55 Le Fin Bois 0.5pt win 13/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Wetherby 2:50 Prince of Pirates (S )

Wetherby 3:20 Greenlaw (P )

Newcastle 3:10 Azure Glamour (S )

Newcastle 3:40 And the Man (O )

Newcastle 4:15 Avidity (O )

Newcastle 5:25 Purple Harry (S )

 

Top Picks

 

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Review of the day

As frustrating days go, today was right up there with the best (worst !) of them…

And the reason for that, was just one thing – the ground !

At Newbury, the forecast good/soft, good in places, was actually riding somewhere between heavy and desperate !

Apparently the course was watered earlier in the week, because it was getting too quick.

The rain last night pushed it over the edge - the other way…!

That was never going to suit either of the tips in the final race – and I was relieved to see connections withdrawn Queen Spud.

Unfortunately, Magic Money was allowed to take her chance – and I thought she moved really well, until push came to shove.

At that point, she stopped going anywhere and was allowed to come home in her own time.

She’ll drop a few pounds for todays run – and on better ground, will leave the form behind.

Unfortunately, it will happen after my season has finished.

The heavy ground at Ffos Las was less of a surprise – though it was surprising just how heavy it was.

As with Magic Money, I thought Minella on Line travelled well to a point – but he’s not a mud lark – and he can now add another ‘P’ to his record.

The ability remains however, and he too will come good sooner rather than later…

As for the mentions, then Katgary was clearly the one that got away…

I had hoped to tip him this morning, but wasn’t happy with a very tight price of 4/1.

Well, he was half that at the off – and despite not being suited by underfoot conditions, he still dotted up.

Frustrating…

Own Na View was another totally unsuited by the ground – only he didn’t get away with it and was pulled up.

I don’t think it was the ground that did for Hellorboston – he just isn’t very good at jumping fences under pressure.

Finally, at Ffos Las, Shattered Dream ran a lifeless race.

Hopefully he will bounce back to some kind of form in the autumn…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 26th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Newbury and Ffos Las in the UK – plus Cork in Ireland.

There’s nothing much of interest running at Cork – but there is plenty of interest at both Newbury and Ffos Las.

Consequently, finding a tip or two was never going to be a problem – as is so often the case however, issuing them effectively is a different matter entirely…

Minella on Line was 20/1 in 4 places at 8:00 this morning – but 16/1 in 3, by 8:30…

What’s best to do ?

I issued at 8:30 – and the 16/1 was gone within 15 mins – with 12/1 the general price available.

However, he’s now back out to 16/1, in a couple of places….

I think it is important that you guys show some discipline when chasing these prices.

Most of the horses I tip will bounce back in price, following the initial surge.

If you miss the early boat, I really would discourage you from chasing.

You can back the horses right up until the off (by which time you will also have the benefit of access to the rationale for the tip).

If Minella on Line is 10/1 at the off, then it’s not much worse than the 12/1 that you probably had to take at 9:00 – and you can feel pretty confident that the horse has a live chance… (the other alternative, is that he drifts back out to 16/1).

Aside from the market moves, then the other thing to note is the overnight rain.
That wasn’t good news for any of the tips – though hopefully they will all be able to deal with it.

As I’ve said many times before, the issue with overnight rain is the uncertainty it brings – neither of the Newbury tips want soft ground (hopefully they won’t get it); whilst I would prefer it not to be desperate as Ffos Las for Minella on Line.

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Newbury

5:20

When I first looked at this race, I was very keen on the chances of Gaye Memories.

She is the only runner at the track for Dan and Harry Skelton – and has clearly been saved for a spring campaign.

It was my intention to tip her - but when I watched the videos of her past performances, I found that I couldn’t…

Simply, I don’t see how she can beat Queen Spud.

She finished well behind that one at Stratford at the back end of last season – and again, when both horses made their seasonal debuts at Ludlow, back in October…

You can make some excuses for Gaye Memories, but I just can’t see why she will turn things round (she was well beaten on both occasions).

I therefore switched my attention to Queen Spud, and I liked what I saw…
She too has clearly been kept back for the better ground – and she is not badly handicapped either.

She showed distinct promise when she ran at Ludlow – and didn’t run badly on her only other outing this season.
She gets in today off bottom weight – and with Dickie riding for Henry Daly.

What is there not to like ?!

I could have had a full half point on her – but there is another one in the field, who’s profile I am very keen on…

Magic Money has an excellent record when fresh – and is another who loves decent ground.

She was a very comfortable winner of a similar event at Uttoxeter on her seasonal debut – and gets to run off a mark just 2lb higher this afternoon.
That is more than offset by the claim of her jockey, Ed Cookson, so she is clearly potentially well handicapped.

She also looks progressive – and I can see no reason why she won’t run well today.

I would hope that Magic Money will make the running today, with Queen Spud sat in behind her.

Hopefully they will have shaken off most of their rivals by the home turn and the two of them can battle in out up the straight. That would be nice, wouldn’t it !!

0.25pt win Queen Spud 17/2

0.25pt win Magic Money 14/1

Earlier on the Newbury card, I would have put us on Katgary for the third time this season, if we could have got a price…

We were on him over fences at Kempton during the Christmas period – and again more recently, at the same venue, over hurdles.

He disappointed a little on both occasions - but I believe the ability is there to take a race like todays.

The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his last run – and he gets first time cheek pieces applied.

I would have tipped him at 5/1 (which I didn’t think was too ambitious) – but the best available this morning, was 4/1.

There are a few unknowns in the race, so I felt we needed a bit of a price – and simply I didn’t think the margin was quite there to warrant getting involved…

A couple of very interesting horses head the market in the handicap chase at 3:40.
Owen Na View and Morning Reggie were both massively impressive winners last week and turn out under penalties today.
Both are ‘well in’ compared to their new handicap marks – and I would expect one of them will take todays contest (assuming their recent exertions haven’t left a mark).

I would favour Owen Na View - who absolutely dotted up, in quite a strong race on Saturday.

However, he has an extra half mile to travel today – and the key to his improved form on Saturday, appeared to be the decent ground.

There is always the possibility that softer ground and a longer trip, will catch him out.

Morning Reggie wants soft ground – but the race he won last week was relatively weak.

That said, he has always looked a potentially decent prospect to me, so I think he is quite capable of taking todays race, if the ground is too soft for Owen Na View.

The handicap chase at 4:45 looks relatively weak – and based on the form book, I would be quite keen on the chances of Hellorboston.

He is well handicapped today compared to his hurdle rating – but I wasn’t too impressed by his jumping when he last ran at Newbury, at the end of last month.

Admittedly that was his first attempt at fences, so if he is slicker today (and he will need to be), he might be able to leave that form behind.

If that does happen, then I think todays race is there for the taking…

Ffos Las

3:50

Considering he has been pulled up on his last 4 outings, I’m a little disappointed by the price of Minella on Line today…

I guess a lot of that is down to his connections (Rebecca Curtis and Paul Townend) – and the fact that he has dropped a few pounds in the weights.

However, whilst both of those things are undoubtedly positives, they aren’t the reasons why I’m tipping Minella on Line today…

I keen on him today because of things I’ve seen in a couple of his runs this season.

The first time he came to my attention, was when he ran in a novice handicap chase at Ascot in November.

Despite jumping left at his fences and making a number of bad mistakes, he still managed to finished within 2 lengths of the winner that day.

That suggested to me that he was a well handicapped horse, off a mark of 135.

However, he was a huge disappointment on his next two races.

They were both over fences and the suggestion was that his ‘bottle’ for jumping a fence had gone…

I was therefore very interested in him when he reverted to hurdles at Warwick in January.

And sure enough, he ran a massive race, looming up at the fourth last, before failing to get home.
That race was over 3m2f on soft ground, and he didn’t quite have the stamina for that test.

His most recent run was again over fences – so I think that can be ignored (as I just don’t think he is prepared to face a fence at this point in his career).

Back over hurdles and off a mark 11lb lower than he ran off at Ascot, I think Minella on Line has a real chance this afternoon.

Obviously the overnight rain is a worry at is will make the race more of a test of stamina.

However, todays trip of 2m6f should suit him perfectly - certainly at Warwick, he was going like the winner at this distance.

If Paul Townend can hold on to him and deliver his challenge up the straight, then I think he is quite capable of seriously outrunning his odds.

0.25pt win Minella on Line 16/1

If Venetia was in better form than I would be quite tempted by Shattered Dreams in the handicap chase at 3:15.

He has run a couple of fair race this season (despite what his form figures say !) – and should relish todays test.
He is also dropping down the handicap like a stone – and I would expect him to be able to win a race of his current mark.

However, Venetias tend to run hot or cold – and they are currently running cold…

Realistically, he’s probably more likely to be one for early next season…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ffos Las 3:50 Minella on Line 0.25pt win 16/1

Newbury 5:20 Queen Spud 0.25pt win 17/2 (pre R4)

Newbury 5:20 Magic Money 0.25pt win 14/1 (pre R4)

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 3:05 Katgary (P )

Newbury 3:40 Owen Na View (C )

Newbury 4:45 Hellorboston (S )

Ffos Las 3:15 Shattered Dreams (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None