Daily write-up - Nov 21st

There are NH meetings taking place this afternoon, at Ascot, Haydock and Ffos Las.

The Ascot and Haydock cards are pre-cursers for the big meetings at the respective tracks, which will take place tomorrow.

Both have interesting races – and a number of decent runners – but with short priced favourites in virtually every race, finding betting angles is tricky…

Still, I am renowned for my creativity (!) – and I’ve found a way of tackling a couple of the races, in which I feel the favourites could be vulnerable.

I feel happier with that approach rather than putting us on favourites that represent little value – or outsiders that are theoretically value, but are unlikely to win.

Here is the rationale behind the bets – plus a few other thoughts on the day…

Haydock

1:20

I can fully understand why Turban is a short-priced favourite for this race.

He is, by some margin, the highest rated horse in the race (though that rating is questionable) – and probably more importantly, he is a rare British raider for Willie Mullins (plus Ruby Walsh’s only ride of the day).

There is little doubt he is going to be well backed – probably over-backed – and whilst that won’t stop him from winning, it does potentially create a bit of value if you want to oppose him.

What I struggle to understand however, is why Mwaleshi isn’t second favourite for the race…

On official ratings, there is little between the other 3 runners, however Third Intention is making his seasonal debut and likely to find todays trip on the short side –  and  Mwaleshi beat Valco De Touzaine, fair and square, over this very course and distance last December.

Furthermore, Mwaleshi  is 2lb better off at the weight’s despite handing out a 5 length beating that day – and whilst Valco is now a bit more mature (he was 4 at the time), I would expect the placings to be upheld.

Mwaleshi made an eye catching reappearance at Wetherby at the end of  October, after 10 months off the track.

He loomed up round the home turn that day, but either failed to get home – or needed the run.
Either way, I would expect him to be much sharper today – and well suited by the race test.

He is only a small horse, and Haydocks sharp track and soft fences, are always likely to play to his strengths.

Ofcourse, even with everything in his favour, he might still not be able to beat Turban.

That one was hugely impressive when sauntering away with a competitive handicap chase at Fairyhouse in January – but a couple of subsequent failures, raised some question marks.

That said, I wouldn’t expect Willie Mullins to be bringing him over here for a day out – and acknowledge he is the one to beat.

All the same, I think Mwaleshi represents a bit of value to beat him, at a general 8/1 – and if Turban is as good as is generally thought, then a forecast saver on him to beat Mwaleshi, should reduce the chances of  us losing on the race.

0.375pt win Mwaleshi 8/1

0.125pt S/F Turban to beat Mwaleshi

The opening event on the Haydock card is probably the best shaped race for betting, all day…

However, that’s for a reason – it looks very trappy !

I’ll offer 2 against the field, in the shape of Milan Bound and Closing Ceremony.

They are potential improvers – but unfortunately, the market is wise to them both and neither represent much in the way of value.

I was sorely tempted to take a risk on Stephanie Frances in the novice hurdle at 1:55.

She won a good bumper at the Punchestown festival a couple of seasons ago, before transferring to Dan Skelton.

She was disappointing last season – but was hugely impressive when wining a fair event at Worcester last time out.

She really could be anything - however, that is true for a few in this race and ultimately, I figured there was just too much guesswork involved to be tipping her.

Shame really, as instinctively, I do quite fancy her.

I don’t fancy Grand Vision as much, but I do think he has a fair chance in the novice chase at 2:30.

A high class novice hurdler a few seasons back, he came back form injury last season and showed some good form in handicaps.

He makes his debut over fences today - and if he is spot on, I think he has the natural ability to go very close.

However, we are guessing on his fitness (though I suspect the market will tell) and he has got to face a couple of fair sorts.

Certainly one to keep an eye on, if today isn’t the day…

Ascot

3:50

Anyone who follows jump racing, shouldn’t need an introduction to Starluck..

A hugely talented hurdler, who has been on the go since he was 3, regularly competing in top class hurdle races.

He is a horse with a very high cruising speed – but who tends to lack a bit in the finish.

Consequently, he has always been better suited to flat tracks (like Ascot), than to undulating ones (like Cheltenham).

In fairness, his star has been in gradual decline for the past few years – but as a consequence, his handicap mark has fallen and he showed at Cheltenham (of all places !), that he is more than capable of wining a race such as this off a mark, like todays…

True, a further 18 months have elapsed since that win – but it was achieved at a course that doesn’t play to his strength – and from a mark 2lb higher than he races off today.
In short, I think he is competitively handicapped.

More than that, a couple of decent recent runs suggest that he is just about to hit top form.

The re-application of the blinkers that he wore when he won at Cheltenham suggest to me, that connections are going for it today.

And in truth, they have picked a good race to have a crack at.

Worth over £12K – it has attracted a field of just 6 – and the favourite aside, they look a limited bunch.

Of course, the favourite – Sweet Deal - is the potential fly in the ointment.

He has won his last 2 hurdle races – but his rating is a guess on behalf the handicapper – and he is so short in the betting, primarily because of his connections.

As with Turban, if Sweet Deal is as good as is being suggested, we will be playing for second place.

But I do think we’ll have a good chance of winning that race – and if Sweet Deal isn’t that good, I would be optimistic Starluck will be the one to take advantage.

0.375pt win Starluck 8/1

0.125pt S/F Sweet Deal to beat Starluck

I was disappointed that I couldn’t have a crack at either of the handicap chases earlier on the card.

Both are the kind of race that I enjoy trying to solve – but no matter how many times I turned them round, I kept on getting out the same answers…

Niceonefrankie won last years renewal of the 2:40 – and I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t double up this afternoon.

He gets to race off exactly the same mark today – and for a £25K race, the opposition is weak…

He stands out to such an extent I would struggle to offer you an alternative (if he were to fall, for example).

By elimination, you end up with Al Alfa - but that really only hardens the case for Niceonefrankie !

He opened up at 11/4 yesterday – but you can’t beat 2/1 now.

It’s no price to be tipping at – and even though I doubt he will drift, because I think he will win, I’m going to make him a Top Pick !

It’s a similar story with the following race at 3:15, where Ballinvarrig stands out…

He literally has ticks in every box – but is too short a price, to tip.

In fairness, this race is a little more competitive, so I could see a scenario where he gets beaten.
The trouble is, those most likely to beat him, follow him in the market – namely Howard’s Legacy and Ardkilly Witness.

I will be a little surprised if the winner comes from outside those 3.

There is a chance that he (or Howard’s Legacy) might drift to an acceptable price – but as things currently stand (and as they stood this morning), I couldn’t tip either…

The final race of interest on the Ascot card, is the novice chase at 1:30.

Killala Quay looks the one to beat, provided he is straight enough to do himself justice.

Boondooma is the other one that potential interested me – but whilst I can see him running well, I’ll be a little surprised if he is good enough to win.

The money this morning for The Skyfarmer also looks as if it might be significant.
In short, a race to watch rather than play in…

Ffos Las

Davy Russell is over at Ffos Las to ride for Rebecca Curtis - and he’ll get some winners, mark my words…

The question is how many – and which ones..?

My guess is at least 2 – probably 3 – and I think Tara Road will be one of them in the 2:15 race…

He won a decent handicap hurdle at Ascot last time out and gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher this afternoon.

All things being equal, that won’t stop him.

In fairness, He does face some interesting looking rivals – including his stable mate and top weight, Champagne Rian.

There’s been money for that one as well – but I think that’s a red herring.

Davy hasn’t come over for a day out 

He’s another Top Pick.

Finally As De Fer is very tempting in the handicap hurdle at 2:50…

He runs off a mark 5lb lower than his chase mark – and with the benefit of a pipe opener under his belt, he should be ready to do himself justice this afternoon.

Again though, it is quite a tight race – and whilst 4/1 looks a fair price, I can just about resist it.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 3:50 Starluck 8/1 (plus S/F Sweet Deal to beat Starluck)

Haydock 1:20 Mwaleshi 8/1 (plus S/F Turban to beat Mwaleshi)

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Haydock 12:50 Milan Bound (O )

Haydock 12:50 Closing Ceremony (O )

Haydock 1:55 Stephanie Frances (S )

Haydock 2:30 Gran Vision (C )

Ascot 1:30 Killala Quay (P )

Ascot 3:15 Ballinvarrig (P )

Ffos Las 2:50 As De Fer (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Ascot 2:40 Niceonefrankie

Ffos Las 2:15 Tara Road