Daily write-up - Nov 4th

The Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, is the days feature race – and it is supported by a very decent card (for a mid week).
There is also a meeting at Fairyhouse, where the racing isn’t of the same quality, but there are a couple of interesting runners…

First things first: you all need to be aware that I’m having some issues with the distribution list that I use for my emails…

I upgraded my PC to windows 7 last April (to give me the maximum amount of time between seasons, for things to settle down and any issues to be resolved).

Part of the reason I have my pre-season, its to make sure that all my processes are working smoothly by the time the actual season starts – but unfortunately, I’m still hitting some problems…

They are with the distribution list that I use for issuing the tips.

Occasionally – and seemingly randomly – it ignores a few people when I send out a note.

It happened on the very first day of the pre-season – and it has happened 5 or 6 times since (that I’m aware of).

This morning, for example, the advance notification wasn’t sent to 7 people, when I issued it at 8:00.

I’ve no idea why – and I was fortunate to spot that some of you were missing (which enabled me to send it out again at 8:25).

I’m quite computer savvy (relatively speaking) – and I now do have a theory on the problem (though I’ve only come up with the theory this morning).

I will try to find some time to check it out – but even if I’m am right, I won’t be able to stop the problem from happening – I will just be aware that it can.

As a consequence, can you all please be diligent with regard to the receipt of mails.

As you know, I’m pretty consistent with my communication.
You should receive output every day (unless you’ve been told otherwise).

I will start with an advance notification; followed by tips; write-up; advice summary and review.

That’s how it will be, every day that I tip – and you will get a ‘no tip’ message if I’m not tipping.

If you haven’t received any of those mails, within half an hour of when you expect to, please let me know.

I would rather be sent unnecessary chaser messages, than miss out on sending an email to some one.

Anyway, enough of that – and on to the racing !

I’ve ended up issuing 2 tips today: 1 early and 1 late.

I noticed the price of the early one dropped a few points within half an hour of me issuing.

Whether it was me that caused that is impossible to say. The price had already reduced by a point in a couple of places when I sent out the tip – my feeling is that I just added fuel to a fire that had already been ignited.

Obviously, I’ll keep a close eye on these early ones – and I would suggest that those of you who are following at BSP – and filtering bets based on price shortening, use an early price of 8/1 (which I think is the biggest the horse should have been in the first place).

On to the rationale for todays tips, then – and some thoughts on a few other races…

Exeter

2:15

The big race of the day.

I think it can be viewed as battle between the old guard (Cue Card, Somersby and Pepite Rose) and the new boys (Balder Succes, Hinterland and Gods Own) – and I’m with the new boys, all the way…

So far as the old guard are concerned, all look handicapped close to their best – and Cue Card, in particular, is likely to be using this as a stepping stone for bigger targets down the line (namely the Betfair chase and the King George).

That won’t necessarily b the case for Somersby and Pepite Rose – but the former will have his work cut out to follow up last years victory from a mark 9lb higher; whilst the latter is running off a career high mark.

Of the 3, Pepite rose is actually the one I would fear most (partially because of the Venetia factor !) – but she is very exposed (this will be her 20^th chase race) and her form does seem to have levelled out…

Of the new boys, then on flat track, over the bare 2 miles, I would be all over Hinterland.
However, Exeter is a relatively stiff track – and there is a further 2 furlongs for him to cover this afternoon.

I have absolutely no doubt that Paul Nicholls will have him spot on (as he had Ulck De Lin on Saturday) – and if the pace is not strong and Sam TD gets him to settle, he could well win. However, on balance, I can’t quite bring myself to tip him at 7/2.

There is very little between the other 2 ‘new boys’, Balder Succes and Gods Own.

They met twice at the back end of last season – and the score was 1-1.

Balder Success was triumphant over 2m4f at Kempton, when giving Gods Own 7lb; whilst Gods Own took his revenge over 2 miles at Punchestown, off level weights.

Clearly that doesn’t compute from a form book perspective (unless the distance was a factor -  Gods Own is improving at a rate of knots ) – and whilst the Punchestown run may flatter Gods Own a little, even the Kempton run suggests there is very little between them.

Certainly not sufficient for Gods Own to be twice the price of Balder Succes…

Gods Own is only 6 years old, and with just 4 runs over fences he clearly has plenty of scope for improvement.

He also comes from the Tom George yard, whom I rate very highly (and who went agonisingly closed in this race with Module, 12 months ago).

I fear Hinterland (if the race is run to suit) – and I might have been tempted to save on him at 4/1+ - but as it is, I’ll go with the value call and Gods Own

0.5pt win Gods Own 7/1 L (13/2 Gen)

3:45

Ballybough Andy is a slightly speculative selection in this race – only his fourth run over hurdles…

Ofcourse he needed the first 3 to get a handicap mark – and it was in the last one of those, at Worcester, where he caught my eye…

It was just a maiden hurdle, so very difficult to get a proper handle on - and the Rebecca Curtis trained winner, blew the field apart – but I thought that Ballybough Andy ran a very nice race, with a view to the future..

He was in a group of 4 that pulled away from the field from the last – and whilst he came off worse in the finish, he was only a couple of lengths off second place.

The way he ran on strongly down the straight, suggested that he would benefit from a greater test of stamina – and so it is interesting that he gets to run over an additional half mile, on his handicap debut.

Like I say, there is a fair bit of guesswork involved – and you would probably want to see some market support close to the off (beyond the initial price drop this morning) – but the race doesn’t look like it will take a great deal of winning.

Of the others, then last years winner, Royal Native, is maybe not too surprisingly favourite, off a mark just 3lb higher.

Others worthy of a mention are Georgie Lad and Dream Deal, who are both very unexposed.

Bilidn is also of interest on its debut for a new stale; whilst Bygones Sovereign could be the most dangerous rival of all - if he gets an uncontested lead.

At the end of the day though, I think Ballybough Andy has as good a chance as any – and at 10/1, he looked at least a couple of points too big in the betting.

0.5pt win Ballybough Andy 10/1

Earlier on the Exeter card, there is a fascinating novice chase, due off at 2:45.

Caroles Destrier sets a fair form standard (over fences) – but both Carrig Mor and If in Doubt, have the potential to perform above that level.

I wouldn’t completely rule out the other two runners either, so clearly not a race to be getting involved in financially…

That said, Carrig Mor made a massive impression on me on his hurdling debut 12 months ago, before disappointing during the remainder of the season. He is a PTP winner in Ireland, suggesting fence might be the making of him.

If it is, then I think he will take the beating…

There is an uber competitive handicap chase due off at 3:15, where victory for any one of the 12  runners would come as no great surprise.

That said, 2 do jump out, in the shape of Ziga Boy and Solstice Son.

The reason for this, is that they are far less exposed than the rest of the field – and therefore have more scope to improve past their current marks.

Unfortunately the market is always wise to these sorts – and they sit at the head of the betting.

Of the others, then I would have expected more support for Bobcatbilly – up to 3 miles for the first time – and with AP back on board.

Keep a close eye on him in the betting.
The other one that catches my eye, for almost inexplicable reasons, is Flaming Charmer.
He won second time up last season – but didn’t build on that. He had a shocking passage on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, which can be completely ignored.

His stable of Colin Tizzrd is gradually running into form – and as a 6 year old, he has plenty of scope for improvement.
The trip is an unknown – and the form isn’t in the book – but at 28/1, how many boxes do you want ticks in ?!

Finally at Exeter, keep a close eye on Back to Midnight in the last…

Quite well backed at big odds n his seasonal debut, he never gave himself a chance, by refusing to settle early in the race.

Despite, that, he was still there with every chance, entering the home straight.

If some how, he can be encouraged to settle (and he already wears a hood), the latent ability almost certainly exists for him to win a race such a this.

He’s a bit too risky for a tip – but he makes a nice mention 

Fairyhouse

I get the feeling that it is going to be very difficult for me to tip mid week in Ireland…

I was potentially interested in a couple of horses in the handicap hurdles – but I can’t tip them early (the markets aren’t fully formed) – and by the time I issue the write-up, there is a fair chance the prices will have been crushed (which is the case today).

I will play things by ear - but for today, I’ll make them mentions (and a Top Pick !) and suggest you use your own judgement on whether to back them.

The first one I was interested in, was Colla Pier, who runs in the 1:55 race.

There is nothing particularly clever about him, He ran a nice race last time out at Punchestown (his second after a break) and looked as if he would come on for it again.

He’s been raised 3lb for that run – but I suspect still has improvement in him over hurdles (after just 6 runs).

As is so often the case in these kind of races, its difficult to get a handle on the opposition. However he was 11/2 last night and I might have been prepared to take a risk at that price. 4/1 now, has less appeal…

The other one of interest, is our old friend Foritsa, who runs over hurdles in 2:25 race.

He provided us with a couple of very nice wins last season – and after recoding a third victory later in the season, his handicap mark over fences was raised to 109.

Today, he gets to run over hurdles, off a mark of just 81..

He literally looks thrown in – and as he has shown himself capable of running well fresh, it’s difficult to see what the problem is.

Well, once again, it is the price. 9/2 last night was OK – 7/2 now in a 17 runner race, has limited appeal…

I still think he will win mind – so I’m going to make him a Top Pick.

I’m sure the old boy won’t let us down 

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Exeter 3:45 Ballybough Andy 0.5pt win 10/1

 

Late

 

Exeter 2:15 Gods Own 0.5pt win 7/1

 

 

Mentions

 

Exeter 2:15 Hinterland (C )

Exeter 2:45 Carrig Mor (S )

Exeter 3:15 Flaming Charmer (S )

Exeter 4:15 Back by Midnight (C )

Fairyhouse 1:55 Colla Pier (P )

 

Top Picks

 

Fairyhouse 2:25 Foritsa