Daily write-up - Nov 14th

The first day of Cheltenhams Open meeting – the NH season is now properly underway 

Following 7mm of over night rain, the going at the track is generally described as soft (a bit quicker on the cross country course).

It’s likely to be quite hard work, so you want something on your side with the stamina to get home – and fit enough for a battle.

The downside of high profile racing, is that everyone is pouring over the form – and it’s very difficult to find an edge in the early markets.

The bookmakers are betting with an over-round of about 10% - and with the racing so competitive, in many cases it will be better just to take SP (or BSP).

Ofcourse, the first issue is finding a winner – and that really isn’t easy today (or at least, it’s not easy to find a winner that everyone else hasn’t found!).

I’ve issued tips in 3 of the races.

One of them was sent last night, in the hope that it would improve your chances of getting a price.

There are some down sides to me doing that however, so I’ll keep an open mind about repeating.

Anyway, without further ado, here are my thoughts on the afternoons action…

1:15

I was optimistic when I first saw the runners for this race, that I would be able to diligently work through the field and find the winner – but alas, I was wrong !
Actually, that’s a bit unfair – however my conclusions on the race simply mirror those of the odds compilers, so finding an edge is a bit tricky…

In short, I narrowed it down to 5: Broadway Buffalo, Handy Andy, Charingworth, Benbens and Ballyoliver – the first 5 in the betting !

Broadway Buffalo is probably the most interesting, as he is the least exposed.

A novice over fences, with only 3 runs to his name, his is well handicapped compared to his hurdles mark – though there is a chance his inexperience could catch him out.

Ballyoliver comes her on the back of a good win at Carlisle, 12 days ago.

However, the 7lb penalty he incurred for that victory, puts him on a career high mark today.

Handy Andy, Charingworth and Benbens are all closely matched on a couple of lines of form.

In such cases it is often possible to predict improvement/regression of one of the horses – but that’s not really the case here…

All 3 should be suited by todays conditions – and all 3 are likely to improve a little for their latest run.

When this happens, I tend to look to the market, to help me make a choice – but with all 5 priced between 4/1 and 13/2, it’s not helping much either…

In short, it is all a bit too tight to make a call.

If any one of the 5 mentioned, were to drift to double figures (on the exchanges, maybe), I would potentially be interested.

Head on the block, I would side with Benbens – but I could easily be wrong…

1:50

A scary looking race !

That said, quite a lot of the field are exposed handicappers – and whilst one of them might win the race by default (as was the case 12 months ago), I would always prefer to look for something with the potential to improve past them…

There are 5 or 6 horses that fit that bill – and I’ve put us on two of them…

The first is the ex French Monetaire, who makes his debut for David Pipe today.

Obviously it’s not easy to get a handle on his form – particularly as his best run in France was when he finished second in the French Grand National !

However, that race is run over just short of 3miles – and most of his best form in France is at distances slightly in excess of todays 2 miles.

With the ground likely to be riding slow, a bit of stamina should be a good thing (provided he can keep tabs in the early stages !).

Certainly, a handicap mark of 125 looks very workable – so even if he’s not up to wining today, I suspect he will at some point soon…

The other one I’ve got on side, is Rio De Sivola.

He is only 5 years old – and has only run over fences 3 times in this country – but there is still a suggestion that he might be well handicapped off a mark of 124.

Certainly his form with both Roc D’Apsis and Bellenos, suggest he could be 4 or 5lbs well in today – and that is ignoring the huge scope for improvement that he clearly has…

The downsides are, his lack of experience (though he likes to race prominently, which should help counter that) and the fact he’s been off the course since January.

Again, there is a chance that today won’t be the day for him – but at 20/1, I thought he was worth a small risk.
The others in the field that catch my eye, are the JP McManus pair, Festive Affair and Bold Henry; plus Next Sensation and Last Shot (who is 33/1 – and possibly worth a tiny saver).

Whilst the money for Astracad is very interesting – as the horse is sufficiently well handicapped to win a race such as this, if everything falls right.

0.25pt win Monetaire 10/1

0.25pt win Rio De Sivola 20/1

2:25

This is a really interesting looking novice chase – and I’m happy to narrow it down to 3…

He may be the highest rated in the race, but with a record of 0 wins form 8 chase attempts, I have to take on the favourite Colour Sergeant.

I also have to take on Splash of Ginge – who is held by Dell’ Arca on a couple of pieces of form from last season – and also has to give 8lb to most of todays rivals.
The 2 outsiders in the race don’t look quite good enough, so that leaves 3: Dell’Arca, Champagne West and Urban Hymn.

All 3 are potentially high class novice chasers, who almost certainly posses sufficient ability to win a race such as todays.

I therefore think the key is to find the horse best suited to todays conditions…

The trip and ground should be fine for both Dell’Arca and Urban Hymn – though I suspect it will proved to be a bit short for Champagne West.

That said, I think he may be the most talented animal in the field, so he’s not easily dismissed…

The key thing for me, is that Urban Hymn has already run over fences this season  -and the other two haven’t.

That should give him a fitness edge – and an experiences edge – and I’m hoping that will prove crucial.

His run was over 2 miles at Carlisle, where he lost out to Duke of Navan by a head.
However, there was little disgrace in that, as Duke of Navan is a very decent horse, who was probably better suited to the test that day.

The step up to 2m4f with help Urban Hymn enormously.

It’s debatable what his best trip is – but he didn’t quite get home over 3miles at the festival, so I’m inclined to think it is about 2m6f.

That being the case, he should be perfectly suit by todays race, which is likely to be a relative stamina test, at the trip.

Urban Hymn likes to bowl along in his races, which again could be an advantage, particularly if he can get into a nice rhythm.

Simply, I can’t see any negatives with him – it’s just a question of whether he is good enough.

Hopefully, he will be !

0.5pt win Urban Hymn 9/2

3:00

Another really interesting race – and probably the best of the day, in the form of Port Melon…

Unbeaten in two PTPs, Port Melon made his debut under rules in this very race, 12 months ago.

He travelled beautifully through the race – but just wasn’t able to get up the hill as strongly as Creepy and Timesremebered.
All the same, he lost little in defeat – and for a debut run, it was a highly commendable effort.

Port Melon wasn’t seen again, until he was due to run at the festival, in the Albert Bartlett hurdle.

However, a horrible incident on the way to post, saw him jumping into the crowd and seriously injuring jockey Daryl Jacobs.

Not surprisingly, he was withdrawn from that race – but did run once more last season, when down the field at Aintree.

He is therefore running today on the back of just 2 starts under rules – but he has already shown sufficient ability to make him competitive today.

What’s more, Paul Nicholls suggested that there had been a problem with him.

Apparently he suffered from stomach ulcers – but these have now been treated.

Lac Fontana suffered with the same issue last season – and once it had been cured, he took his form to a new level.

I don’t think that Port Melon will need to take his form to a different level to win today – and if he can improve a few pounds I think he will take a deal of beating.

The obvious danger is Blacklion – but I don’t think he sets an insurmountable standard – and he has to concede 7lb to Port Melon.

It’s quite possible that one of the others will improve sufficiently to get involved in the finish – but I they will need to improve…

In short, Port Melon looks a decent bet.

0.5pt win Port Melon 6/1

3:35

Provided the rain hasn’t really got into the ground, then Balthazar King is going to take the world of beating in this…

Three times a winner over the cross country course here and generally best when fresh, he looks to have everything in his favour.

He’s also got a heart as big as himself, so if he gets into a battle, he invariably comes out on top.

He has ticks in pretty much every box – which, I guess, is why he is a best price of 4/6.

In simple terms, you are taking that price about him negotiating 32 fences and the best part of 4 miles, without incident…

Is it a good bet ? I’ve no idea !

Ultimately it is all likely to come down to him getting that required bit of luck – if he does, then he should win.

The challenge is probably to find the one to follow him home – and Sire Collonges would get my vote to do that…

4:05

When I saw the declarations for this race, there was only one horse I wanted to be with: Cup Final…

Accepting that I’d not looked too closely at the other runners, I felt that he was potentially very well handicapped of a mark of 125.

He ran 3 times over hurdles last season – and twice managed to bump into the potentially top class, Irving

Cup Final showed considerable promise on all 3 occasions – and I could easily see him being rated 140+ by the end of the seasons.

Todays trip will suit him fine – and I doubt he’ll struggle with the ground, unless it gets really heavy.

I kept an eye out for the opening show, but was a bit disappointing with the 11/4 that he was put in at.

I figured that 7/2 would be acceptable – but then watched in shock as his price went into free fall !

He got down to even money last night – and whilst he is now out to 7/4 in a place, that still looks very short.

I guess in theory, he might drift out further to an acceptable price (say 3/1) – but even if he did, I wouldn’t want to be on him (as the suggestion would be that he’s not cherry ripe – or not as well handicapped as he appears to be).

I guess that I could have gone searching for an EW alternative – but in a race full of unexposed types, that would be no easy task.

Consequently, it has to be a ‘no bet’ race – but I will be fascinated all the same, to watch both the pre–race market movements, and the race itself.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:50 Monetaire 10/1

Cheltenham 1:50 Rio de Sivola 20/1

Cheltenham 2:25 Urban Hymn 9/2

Cheltenahm 3:00 Port Melon 6/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:15 Benbens (O )

Cheltenham 3:35 Sire Collonges (O )

Cheltenham 4:05 Cup Final (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None