Daily write-up - Nov 22nd

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon in the UK – and Gowran Park in Ireland.

What a day !

I had built up last weekend as the start of the NH season proper – but unfortunately, it proved a bit of an anti-climax (and that’s ignoring my internet issues !)

The racing staged jointly today, by Ascot and Haydock, is as good as you’ll see all season.

I scanned the cards at Huntingdon and Gowran (where I noticed Don Polli was making his chasing debut) – but I really didn’t feel any need to venture beyond the big two tracks.

Rain yesterday evening was once again not really desirable – but at least it was predictable.

The issue, as always, is just how soft will the ground be…?

We were able to judge its state yesterday, as they raced at both tracks.

Apparently there was further rain after racing at both Ascot and Haydock – so there can be little doubt that it will be on the heavy side.

I’ve factored that into my thoughts (hopefully not over-factored !) and it has certainly enabled me to whittle down a few of the fields.

Needless to say, this is a big day, tipping wise.

It’s not often I tip in 5 races on a day – but having spent the week bemoaning a lack of opportunities, when they present themselves, I’ve got to be prepared to take them.

Let’s hope one or two of them can drop into place this afternoon and get things moving in the right direction again…

Here’s my thoughts:

Ascot

1:00

I do like the shape of this race, with just the 6 runners…

I think you can make a case of sorts for most of them – which is part of the reason why I was drawn to the 2 outsiders in the field.

The other part of the reason is because they carry the lowest weights – and over 3 miles, in soft ground, I feel that has to be an advantage.

Astigos was the one that I was initially interested in…

A Venetia Williams trained French import, who took his time to acclimatise last season, he ran very well when second to Top Wood at Haydock in February.

That run saw his mark rise from 117 to 121 – but a couple of slightly disappointing subsequent runs have seen it ease back to 119.
The horse has a definite preference for winter ground – and Venetia will exploit his mark sooner or later…

My initial feeling was that she might exploit it today – but based on his last time out run, he simply can’t beat Son of Suzie.

The pair met on their seasonal and chasing debuts in a very decent handicap chase at Carlisle, at the start of this month.

Son of Suzie ran a cracker to finish runner up that day, with Astigos 12 lengths back in fifth place. On just 2lb better terms, according to the book, there is no way Astigos can reverse that form.

Furthermore, Son of Suzie made 2 or 3 notable jumping errors – so if anything, the distance between the pair flattered Astigos.

More than that, Paddy Brennan has jumped on board today, thereby neglecting a couple of decent rides at Haydock.

In short the case for Son of Suzie to beat Astigos looks water–tight !

However, it’s Venetia we are talking about here – not some mere mortal of a trainer.

To say I would be kicking myself if Astigos turned round the form, would be an understatement ! I felt I simply had to save on him…

Ofcourse there are 4 other horses the race, all of whom have a chance  of sorts.

However, I’m hoping Big Hands Harry will need the run; Bullet Street will find the ground too soft; Polisky is a bit exposed (and a notorious soft finisher) and Minella on Line is a bit high in the handicap (and a bit short in the market !).

Son of Suzie to beat Astigos then !

0.5pt win Son of Suzie 6/1

0.125pt win Astigos 10/1

2:05

I think the ground at both Ascot and Haydock today is going to be a great leveller.

Some horses simply won’t act in – and those that do, will be able to out perform general expectations.

This is a race, where I think a couple of the more fancied runners might struggle to produce their best – Wishful Thinking and Rajdhani Express.

Now both of these horses have won on heavy ground – so it’s not simply a case of saying they won’t go on it – but they would both prefer quicker ground and have been kept away from soft ground in the past.

In short, they come with significant ground based risks…

Al Ferof should have no issue with the ground – but he has to give weight to all of his rivals – and this run is designed to bring him on for bigger targets later in the season (primarily the King George).

I don’t thiink Bury Parade or Fox Appeal will have much issue with the ground either – but those two are rated 10lb inferior to our old friend Somersby…

He did us a big favour when wining the Halden Gold Cup on his seasonal debut 12 months ago – and continued to perform with credit through the season.

In fact, if it hadn’t been for Sire de Grugy, he would have been the best 2 mile chaser around last season  - and 2 miles is a distance short of his optimum.

Today’s trip of 2m3f is about his optimum - and he loves Ascot. Two big ticks there then…

And whilst he appeared to disappoint on his seasonal debut, we don’t know what the agenda was that day.

He could very well have needed the run – maybe today was always the plan (realistically, he’s not going to have many more big days in the sun).

My two slight concerns are the ground and an ‘interesting’ jockey booking…

There is no reason to think he wont go on the ground – and I would have less of an issue with it for him, than I would for Wishfull Thinking and Rajdhani Express – but ideally I would have it no worse than soft. Equally, I have no major issue with Andrew Thornton – I think he’s a tremendous guy – but he’s not the most polished of jockeys. I just hope that he and the horse are able to gel…

All this said, I honestly think that Somersby is a very good bet.

I can see significant flaws in all of his rivals – and an argument why today is his big day.

I’ll stick to the half point bet on him – but I’m very tempted to top up to 0.75. Let’s hope I regret the decision to stake him conservatively ;)

0.5pt win Somersby 8/1

3:15

Whilst superficially, this looks a fiercely competitive race – I’m reckon it can be whittled down to 2 main contenders - and 2 or 3 ‘possibles’…

I think the 2 to focus are on, are Bellenos and Brick Red (who has been tipped by Pricewise).

As I said when I issued the tip last night, Bellenos has ticks in just about every box…

A proven Ascot performer, who will love the rain soften ground, he was well fancied for a similar race here on his seasonal debut at the start of the month.

However, an early bad blunder put him on the back foot that day and whilst he briefly threatened to get involved, rounding the home turn, he wasn’t able to muster enough of a finish.
He’s been dropped a pound for that run – and will meet the winner of that race, Ulck De Lin, on 9lb better terms. I think that will be sufficient to reverse the form.

Of much more danger, is the Venetia Williams trained Brick Red.

He and Bellenos met over this course and distance at the back end of last season.

Bellenos was the superior by two and a half lengths that day – but Brick Red is 3lb better off today. Both will prefer todays softer grounds – and there really should be very little between them.

If the prices were big enouhg, I would probably save on Brick Red – but at around 5/1 the pair, you have to make a choice.

I’m actually hopeful that Bellenos might drift a little in price and go off slightly bigger.

That won’t worry me a jot – as I have absolute confidence in both the horse and the team behind him. He will be doing his level best today, I have no doubt about that.

Of the others in the race, then I could give half a chance to Lancetto and Oscar Hill (and similarly, to Ulck de Lin) – however I would want to oppose both Parsnip Pete and Grey Gold, at the current prices.
Both are decent horses – but last time out wins give them a lot to do in circumstances that are unlikely to be ideal.

0.5pt win Bellenos 9/2

Earlier on the card, it will be great to see Faugheen having his first run out of novice company in the Coral hurdle.

He is unopposable – but not a betting proposition either.

Hopefully he will dispatch his rivals with the minimum of fuss and move on to better things later in the season...

Haydock

1:15

Despite there being a field of 12, it will be a little surprising if the winner of this race doesn’t come from the first 4 in the betting.

Most of the others are likely to either need the run – or will be working on handicap marks/confidence…

Of the 4 main protagonists, then I think this might be a case of, a bit much, a bit soon, for On Tour; whilst a slog over 2m4f in the mud, doesn’t strike me as ideal for Dawalan – which leaves Heath Hunter and Marito Du Bearlais.

I suspect that Heath Hunter is capable of winning a race such as today, off his current mark – but if he was really fancied for todays contest, I would expect the market to tell us.

The market has certainly been quite positive about Marito Du Bearlias – and I can understand why.

He won a very competitive race at the Cheltenham open meeting last Friday - and gets to run off a mark just 5lb higher today.

He looked like a progressive horse last time out – and I don’t think a 5lb rise in the weights (which takes his mark to a mere 125) will stop him from following up.

What might stop him, is two tough races in 8 days – but I think it’s worth the risk to find out.

Looking outside the obvious, then I could see bottom weight, Emral Silk running a fair race.

He can be backed at 20/1+ - and should give you a decent run for your money at that price.

0.5pt win Marito Du Berlais 4/1

3:00

As with the Amlin chase at Ascot, I can see the ground being a great leveller in this contest.

If it is as soft as I expect, then I simply can’t see Menorah, The Giant Bolster or Medermit winning.
More than that, heavy ground is going to do no favours to either Cue Card or Dynaste.

If back to his King George best, on heavy ground, Silviniaco Conti will win this – but after his run at Wetherby, that has to be a doubt…

As a consequence, I think there are 3 in the race to concentrate on: Taquin De Seuil, Double Ross and Harry Topper.

I have no issue with Taquin – apart from his price. He is now 9/2 second favourite – and that is very short about a horse who still has to prove he is up to the grade.

What I find more bizarre, is that if you fancy Taquin, you simply have to fancy Double Ross…

The two have met on their last 3 outings (ignoring Double Ross’s run at Aintree) and whilst Taquin has come out on top on each occasion, there has been perilously little in it.

The first meeting was at Cheltenham last March, when Taquin won the JLT novice chase, with Double Ross 2 lengths back in third.

Next time was at Newton Abbot in October, when Taquin finished a disappointing third and Double Ross was brought down – and the final occasion was at Wetherby at the start of the month when they filled the placings behind Menorah, in the Charlie Hall chase.

There was a short head between them that day – and Double Ross is a pound better off at the weights today.

He also gets Sam Twiston Davies back in the saddle, to replace Adam Wedge (who’s a fair jockey – but doesn’t know the horse as well).

I have absolutely no issue with the ground for Double Ross – the issue is simply whether he will get home over the 3m1f trip.

I admit that’s a concern – but I think he was ridden too aggressively at Wetherby and yet still almost managed to get home.

Like I say, there is very little between Double Ross and Taquin yet the former is five times the price (in fact you can get the same price on Double Ross placing as you can on Taquin winning !).

The other one I wan on side in the race, is Harry Topper…

Now, I’ve got to be honest, he’s not a horse I particularly like – but there can be no doubting he’s got an engine and I think everything is in place for him to run a massive race today.

He absolutely must have heavy ground and a flat track (so he can get into a rhythm) – plus the softer the fences, the better…

Basically, he will get all those things today, the question is simply whether he is good enough to take advantage.

I could easily see Cue Card taking him out of his comfort zone and him getting tailed off. However, if he manages to cling to the field, I suspect nothing will be finishing with more purpose up the home straight.

He’s a gamble for sure – and one that could make me look silly – but you have to be prepared to take the odd risk in this game !

0.25pt EW Double Ross 25/1

0.25pt win Harry Topper 12/1

Elsewhere on the Haydock card, it will be good to see The New One tested by a fair field in the Betfair hurdle.

Ofcourse he would have been tested much more, if Faugheen had run in this race rather than down at Ascot – but I guess we’ll have to wait for that showdown.

You would expect The New One to win – but very heavy ground won’t be ideal, as it will suit his 2 main rivals, Melodic Rendezvous and Zamdy Man.

Hopefully he will be up to the task, all the same…

Despite the price, I was pretty keen on Soudain in the distance chase at 12:45.

I guess I should be even more keen on his chances at Huntington (2:45 race) – but he’s a 3/1 shot there, which tempers enthusiasm.

In his absence at Haydock, I think No Duffer s the one to beat.

5/1 is a fair enough price – but on a day when we already have plenty of bets – I don’t need to go chasing in such a competitive race.

I could see 3 or 4, all capable of making him go – so he can be a mention instead !

It’s a similar story in the final race on the card, where I was tempted by Midnight Appeal.

I think he’s the one to beat – but 6/1 is tight enough in a race where half a dozen can be given a decent chance.

Certainly, Masters Hill could be a class above – whilst Venetia will get another win out of Renard at some point his season.

Just another mention then…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

It was remiss of me not to pass comment on the 2:25 race at Haydock – apologies...

 

Simply, I decided early, that this race was the kind of minefield, you would need to be either slightly mad – or deluded to want to play in ! (and I hope I’m neither !).

 

There are so many possible plots, subplots and different scenarios, I figured it would be a waste, to spend much time on it...

 

If forced, I would play it with a straight bat, and select Sybarite EW. He should be well suited by the conditions and is on an upward curve.

I couldn’t have the favourite, Volnay De Thaix, off 12 stone, in this ground – even though he is theoretically well treated.

If he wins this race, it will probably ruin him for the season – and possibly his career.

Katkeau would have to be of interest – provided he doesn't ‘bounce’; whilst Upswing and Shimla Dawn strike me as two other likely types...

I think it is a race where the market just before the off, will tell you much of what you need to know.

If you must have a bet in the race, I suggest you let it guide you...

 

TVB.

 

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 1:00 Son of Suzie 6/1 (saver Astigos 10/1)

Ascot 2:05 Somersby 8/1

Ascot 3:15 Bellenos 9/2

Haydock 1:15 Morito Du Bearlais 4/1

Haydock 3:00 Harry Topper 12/1

Haydock 3:00 Double Ross 25/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Haydock 12:46 No Duffer (O )

Haydock 2:25 Sybarite (O )

Haydock 3:35 Midnight Appeal (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None