Daily write-up - Nov 29th

They race this afternoon at Newbury, Newcastle, Towcester and Bangor in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

The Hennessy Gold cup is the feature at Newbury; whilst Newcastle and Fairyhouse both host cards of merit.

For the life of me however, I can’t see the point of the Towcester or Bangor meetings. Small fields, low grade horse, desperate conditions… Needless to say, I didn’t spend long on either card.

I’ve ended up with 6 tips on the day: 3 early and 3 late.

It goes without saying that we could badly do with a winner – but I have no intention of either forcing things, or adopting a different approach.

I’ll continue to look for tips in the same way I always have: either horses that have caught my eye – or races where I think I can spot some value.

We’re in the middle of a poor run - but this is a long game…

The mentions that I issue on a daily basis should give you some re-assurance that I’m still reading things fine – I’ve just not picked out the right horses for tips.

Time pressure and market forces are two big reasons for that – but I can’t allow them to be excuses – that’s the world we live in.

Anyway, hopefully today will bring better. If not, there is always tomorrow - and the day after that, and the day after that…

You get the picture

On to the logic behind the days tips – and some thoughts on a couple of other races.

Newbury

12:50

This is a bit of a strange race, in so much as I think there are good reason for opposing just about every runner..!

Turn Over Sivola has top weight, is quite exposed and won’t appreciate the ground: Seventh Sky is out of form and not well handicapped; The Clock Leary and Tara Road are both dropping back in trip – and are up significantly in the weights for last time out wins; Keltus is a poor jumper and won’t like the ground; and Jumps Road is an enigma !

In fairness, he is an enigma who could be suited by todays test better than most – but I still can’t bring myself to tip him…

Instead, I’ve opened for the Philip Hobbs trained Royal Regatta.

Now don’t get me wrong, he’s got issues to overcome if he is going to win today – but I suspect he is the best horse in the race and as a consequence, I’m hoping his class will see him through.

Reading between the lines, Royal Regatta is a horse that Philip Hobbs has always rated – he has certainly raced him in a way that suggests he has a high opinion of him.

2 easy novice hurdle wins (the first from the now 140 rated Spirit of Shankley) were followed up by a run in a decent novice hurdle at Cheltenham’s new years day meeting.

Royal Regatta didn’t seem to particularly appreciate the soft ground that day (so that has to be a worry today) but a fifth place, beaten 12 lengths behind Aubusson, doesn’t read too badly.

He had 2 more runs last season: when down the field in the Martin Pipe race at the Cheltenham festival; and then when pulled up in another hurdle race at the Cheltenham April meeting.

He returned to action in a hot class 2 hurdle race, at Kempton at the beginning of this month.

Royal Regatta was sent off favourite that day – bearing in mind his two poor runs at the end of least season, that suggest he is well thought of.

He cruised into contention round the final bend that day – but didn’t quite get home and ultimately finished third to the very promising Brother Brian.

Non-the-less, that was a performance full of merit and suggests he can do some damage off his current rating.

He gets to run in a class 2 race today (so drops a grade), whereas Tara Road for example, is going up from a class 4 race last time out.

Obviously horses are improving/regressing all the time, so race class is only an indicator – but it does help put performance in perspective.

In summary then, despite conditions not being completely in his favour, I am hopeful that Royal Regatta can demonstrate his class and see off a field who have all also got question makes of some sort, against them…

0.5pt win Royal Regatta 11/2

1:20

This is an open looking race, in which a chance can be given to quite a few – and simply, I felt that Noble Legend was a few points too big at the 11/1 this morning.

The case for him is quite simple: he is a horse back on his last winning mark; who’s had 2 runs to get him fully fit – and who will be running over a trip and on ground that he should be quite happy with.

In short, he has ticks in all the main boxes.

In fairness, he faces a number of useful opponents, so the call on him, was all about ‘value’.

I would consider Bertie Boru as his most dangerous rival. He finished a long way ahead of Noble Legend when both made their seasonal debuts at Stratford at the end of October – and 7lb shouldn’t be enough for the form to be reverse. However, my hope is that Noble Legend has progressed more for the run – and that he will be better suited by todays test.

Midnight Appeal is another who would be very dangerous – assuming he has got over a gruelling race in the mud, just last Saturday (and I wouldn’t want to bet on that being the case).

Dushrembrant is a fascinating challenger over from Ireland – though my guess is that he runs primarily because stable mate Carrigmoorna Rock runs in the opener – and connections wanted to share travel costs.

Whilst Bobcatbilly could be dangerous is returning to form – and Listen Boy similarly, if building on his last time out win.

In short, not a race you can be confident about – but a race in which, I felt Noble Legend was a value call at the price available.

0.5pt win Noble Legend 11/1

3:00

I was going to pass on the Hennessy – but simply, I think there is a horse in the race who could be at least 10lb ahead of his handicap mark – and will be perfectly suited by today’s conditions.

That horse is The Druid Nephew…

In truth, we already know he has 6lb in hand of his mark – because that was how much he was put up for finishing second to Sam Winner at the Paddy Power meeting, a fortnight ago.

The Druids Nephew ran a great race that day – and was simply outstayed by a horse with seemingly endless stamina reserves.

He drops back a couple of furlongs today – and on Newburys flat track, I don’t envisage any issues with him getting home.
He’s not short of pace either: he’s won over 2m4f and was sent off favourite for the novice handicap chase over that distance at the Cheltenham festival, 18 months ago.

At that time, he was trained by Andy Turnell – but a move to the stable of Neil Mullholland seems to have brought about significant improvement.

And that is why The Druids Nephew has the potential to still be very well handicapped today.

Needless to say, dangers abound: Smad Place, Many Clouds an Fingal Bay to name but  3: whilst at bigger prices, I could be tempted by Monbeg Dude Annacotty, Merry King and Midnight Prayer.

All that said, I don’t think the first 3 mentioned are good enough to have 10lb+ in hand of their mark – and I don’t think the last 4 are as talented as The Druid Nephew.

The final piece of the jigsaw, is the man on top.
Davy Russell is on track for just the one ride today – and I’m sure you can all remember what I’ve been saying about Davy recently

0.5pt win The Druids Nephew 10/1

3:35

On the Friday of the Paddy Power meeting (the day my internet went !), I tipped a couple of horses in the big 2 mile handicap hurdle: Monetaire and Rio De Sivola.

Incredibly, both made shocking blunders at the very first fence: and whilst Monetaire went on the clout just about every other fence, before finishing third - Rio De Sivola was brought down at the second fence..

They meet again today – and because of that run, Monetaire is 3lb worse off with Rio De Sivola.

He is also favourite for todays race, because, he was considered unlucky not to have won last time (if poor jumping can be considered unlucky).

In fairness, if Monetaire has come on for the Cheltenham run (and he is entitled to do so) – and he jumps the fences cleanly (there must be a doubt), then he is the most likely winner of todays race – but at 5/2 that doesn’t make him a great betting proposition.

Rio De Sivola is a more attractive betting proposition because that run can be ignored – and he should be much better suited to the smaller field he faces today.

He’s not a horse I can be confident about – but I do think he has potential to be much better than his current rating of 126.

He’s only raced 4 times over fences in this country – and he defeat by Bellenos at Ascot last season, reads well in the context of this race.

There are other dangers in todays race: Next Sensation would need to recapture last season form to have a chance -  though he should be able to boss todays field, which will help him; whilst Anquetta may not find the ground to his liking – but if he does cope with it, he will go very close.

Rio De Sivola is a speculative one – but that is compensated for by the price and I think he is worth a small play in the circumstances.

0.25pt win Rio De Sivola 14/1

I can’t see an angle into the handicap hurdle at 1:50…

The right horses seem to be at the head of the market, so it will be a case of waiting to see of one of them drifts, nearer the off…

Based on his unlucky defeat last time, Home Run, should be the one to beat today – but I suspect he isn’t that straight forward.
Exitas was a little disappointing last time – but that was in a much better race and he had been sharply progressive prior to that; whilst Albert Bridge is theoretically well handicapped if he can translate his flat form to hurdles.

All this said, Hammerlsy Lake is probably a worthy favourite - if a little short in the betting.

The Long distance hurdle at 2:25 looks like a match between Cole Harden and More of That.
It will almost certainly come down to how fit More of That is for his seasonal debut –and the market will likely guide on that matter…

Newcastle

2:40

This looks a very open race: 5/1 the field, with the first 7 in the betting separated by just a couple of points.

And that might be how it turns out in practise – but if there is one hose in the race capable of taking it apart, I think it is Indian Castle…

He was trained last season by Donald McCain and after success in a very hot novice handicap at the Cheltenham January meeting, he was sent off a 7/2 fav for the 23 runner Kim Muir chase at the festival itself.

He ran a fair race that day but was beaten when blundering at the final fence.

Over the summer he was transferred to the stable of Ian Williams.

He made his debut in the Paddy Power gold cup – and was sent off at just 8/1 for that race.
That was a despite his trainer saying he needed the run – so evidently someone thinks this is a serious horse.

Again, he ran a reasonable race – but the suggestion was that he wants stepping back up in trip to 3 miles.

That happens today – and he gets the soft ground he likes best. He also gets cheekpieces for the first time – which I see as a positive sign.

He faces some tough opposition today – and I could probably construct a case of sorts for most of the runners at the head of the market.

However, if everything clicks for Indian castle this afternoon, then I would be very hopeful that he could be a fair bit too good for all of his rivals.

0.5 pt win Indian Castle 6/1

Fairyhouse

12:25

It seems a little bizarre for such a valuable race to be taking place before 12:30 – but there you go…

I’m a big fan of Arthur Moore – particularly with regard to handicap chasers – and I think he might have one he can go to war with this season, in the shape of Treat Yourself…

A progressive novice chaser last season, he threatened to fly through the ranks, when trotting home in a reasonable handicap chase at Leopardstown in January.

He won that race off a mark of 115 and was then raised to a mark of 124. Despite that he was sent off 5/2 favourite for a much better class handicap chase at Gowran in March.

He ran OK that day – but just wasn’t quite slick enough to mount an effective challenge.

His final two races last season were at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting and the Punchestown festival.

He cut no ice at either event, but his rating was dropped back to 121 as a result,...

First time out this season, he ran in a decent handicap hurdle at Down Royale.

The race was clearly just a pipe opener – and it was amusing to see how much daylight he gave his hurdles when jumping them.

He was beaten in that race, as soon as the pace quickened - but he was allowed to come home in his own time and I’m sure it had the desired effect of removing the cobwebs.

So today, things are likely to get more serious.
Back into a handicap chase, off a workable mark – and with plenty of valuable experience now behind him, I am hopeful he can start to fulfil his potential.

Ofcourse, this race won’t be easy.

Its large first prize means that there are likely to be a few that have been aimed at it – including last years winner, Sraid Padraig.

However, Treat Yourself sits at the right end of handicap – and has plenty of things in his favour today.
I guess there is a chance that something might be a bit better than him – but I expect him to run a very big race regardless and if he’s not quite up to winning hopefully he will at least be able to grab a place.

0.25pt EW Treat Yourself 16/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

Newbury 12:50 Royal Regatta 11/2

Newbury 1:20 Noble Legend 11/1

Fairyhouse 12:25 Treat Yourself 16/1

 

Late

 

Newbury 3:00 The Druid Nephew 10/1

Newbury 3:35 Rio De Sivola 14/1

Newcastle 2:40 Indian Castle 6/1

 

Mentions

 

None

Top Picks

 

None