Daily write-up - Nov 8th

There is NH racing today at Wincanton, Sandown and Kelso in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland…

If there is one thing I dread on a Friday evening, it’s rain…

Saturdays tend to be difficult enough – without uncertainty over the ground.

And there really is uncertainty over the ground today:

The weather looks to be dry at Sandown – but they’ve had a lot of rain over the past 24 hours and the ground is current described as anywhere between good (parts of the chase course) and heavy (parts of the hurdles course) – well that just about covers everything !

The truth of the matter is, we won’t know what it is actually riding like until racing is underway.

Similarly at Wincanton, the ground is currently described as good – but it is apparently lashing down with rain, and that is set to stay for most of the day.

It’s anyone’s guess what it will be like by race time…

So where does that leave us ? In a bit of a quandary…

There was one horse I wanted to be on today (Loch Ba) and he is relatively impervious to the state of the ground (the issue with him was just the collapsing price !); the other one I wanted on side, irrespective of the ground, was Bally Legend. I simply think he represents a bit of value…

The others are speculative picks – and staked accordingly…

Whether they will come off, time alone will tell – but I felt them worth small risk.

Here’s the rationale for everything…

Sandown

3:40

When I looked through the declarations yesterday afternoon, there was one horse who really caught my eye – Loch Ba.

As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of his.

He was the first ever successful TVB tip (when he hacked up at Kempton) – and I think he is the horse I’ve tipped most over the life time of TVB.

Unfortunately, he has only won the once for us – but he has run some really big races in defeat…

He ran some really big races in defeat last term: a second to Midnight Appeal on his debut (off a mark of 133); a second to Night Alliance at Haydock (off a mark of 132); a fourth to Shotgun Paddy (off 132) and a third to Rigadon de Beauchene (off 130) – and that was from just 6 outings during the campaign…

With such a level of consistency – how does he get to run off 124 today ?
I have honestly no idea – but that ‘s what the handicapper has decided he warrants…

Horses like him are usually dropped by the odd pound, every other run – so it really does seem strange…

Anyway, suffice to say, it makes Loch Ba look a very well handicapped horse.

He has actually won off a mark 1lb higher than he runs off today (when defeating subsequent Welsh National winner, Mountainous, at Ascot).

Loch Ba has a proven record fresh – and Sandowns right hand track should suit him fine. The ground will not be an issue – and as he’s 8 years old, he should just about be at his prime.

As I’ve said before this week, he has ticks in virtually every box…

In all honesty, I don’t see any negatives with him – and it will be a big surprise if he doesn’t run his race.

The issue this time, is purely with the opposition.
There is a chance that he will run his race – and it won’t be good enough, because he will bmp into an improver…

Unfortunately, identifying the improver is very difficult, as I couldn’t categorically rule out any of the field (including Tullamore Dew – though at 12 he clearly isn’t an improver – just possibly handicapped to be dangerous).

Ultimately, it comes down to odds and probability (as it invariably does).

Loch Ba sets a good standard – and we are getting odds of 4/1 about something being able to surpass it.
It’s quite possible that something will – but at the odds, I’m prepared to take that risk…

0.5pt win Loch Ba 4/1

2:30

In a way, the argument for tipping Bally Legend, is very similar to the argument for tipping Loch Ba..

He is a rock solid horse, almost guaranteed to run his race, who is taking on a number of rivals with potential.

He is not quite as well handicapped as Loch Ba – and he has to face twice as many rivals – which is why we are getting 4 times the price on him.

Bally Legend actually looked an exposed horse before he won the grade 3 Betbright (former Racing Post) chase, at Kempton last season.

He won that race off a mark of 138 and whilst it was felt at the time, that the step up in trip to 3 miles brought about the improvement – I’m not entirely convinced that was the case…

His mark was adjusted up to 144 after that that victory – but a couple of subsequent average runs have seen it eased back to 141. The booking of apprentice James Davies, takes 3lb off his back today, and therefore sees him effectively running off the same mark as when successful at Kempton…

He had a nice blow over hurdles at Fontwell last month – and that should see him cherry ripe for today.

I think he sets a fair standard for the others to aim at…

Most interesting of those, is Barrakilla, a half brother to the top class chaser China Rock (who, interesting, had a strong preference for good ground).

Others warranting a mention, include our old friends Tatenen and Freckle Face.
Both did us proud last year – and could easily run well today.

That said, you would expect Tatenen to improve for todays run; whilst Freckle Face is up massively in class, compared to last season.

No Buts and Toby Lerone also both look potentially interesting – whilst Carrickboy is handicapped to win – but is shockingly unpredictable.

However, I’d be happy enough to take on Foundation Man (Jonjo can’t buy a winner at the moment); Sound Investment (looks high enough in the handicap) and Roudoudou Ville (more likely to pull up than win).

0.25pt EW Bally Legend 16/1

3:05

Rhamnus catches my eye in this – and despite the obvious risk, I want to take a chance on him, at a price…

Given the number of novice hurdles that are run, I am always interested in a horse that makes its debut in a graded event…

Rhamnus made his hurdling debut in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Aintree meeting last spring.

The fact he finished last is immaterial – his connections felt he warranted a place in the line-up and that tells you something about him…

He had one more run last season, when third in a decent end of season novice hurdle at Wincanton – and then retuned last month, very a similar run in a maiden hurdle at Stratford.

The handicapper has given him an opening mark of 113 – which looks fair enough.

Todays ground is a bit of an unknown. He has actually won in the soft at Sandown – but that was over 5 furlongs when he was a 2 year old and so is likely to have little bearing on today !

That said, it did at least demonstrate he can go with give underfoot (his breeding suggests he can) – so the real issue is whether he can keep going for 2 miles in those conditions.

And I have to say, I have no idea – though he finished well enough over 2 miles last time out, to suggest he will.

At the end of the day, this is a risky one. But, I think he has potential to be better than his mark.

In a race were nothing stands out, at a general 16/1, I think he is worth a small risk.

0.25pt win Rhamnus 20/1 SJ (18/1 B365, 16/1 Gen)

Wincanton

2:40

The uncertainty over the weather – and hence the ground – has pretty much spoilt the Wincanton card for me…

In truth, this race was going to take a bit of sorting regardless – but add in the situation with the weather and it almost becomes a pin job.

You could therefore never tip one with confidence – but taking a few outsiders against the field, is a more justifiable approach…

The first one I want on board, is Bennys Mist.

He won twice over this course, in heavy ground, last January. Admittedly those wins were over half a mile less that he races over today – but he has wins over 3 miles from earlier in his career – so I don’t think the trip should be an issue.

He had a pipe opener at Cheltenham last month which should have brought him on – and 16/1 looks a fair enough price. In fact, if serious rain does materialise, expect him to be sent off significantly shorter in the betting…

The other two I want on side, to minimal stakes, are According to Trev and Alfie Spinner.

The former threatened to be a useful horse when trained last seasons by Nigel Twiston Davies. However, that didn’t quite happen and he was transferred to David Bridgewater over the summer.

He made his debut for Bridgewater at Exeter last month hand ran really well to finish second that day, to Court By Surprise.

With that run under his belt and with a decent 7lb claimer replacing Tom Scudamore in the saddle, I think he is quite capable of running a very big race.

Alfie Spinner ran second in this very race last season – and is closely handicapped with the favourite for todays race, Standing Ovation.

Standing Ovation won’t want any rain today – but Alfie Spinner will have few issues if it turns soft…

The biggest issue with Alfie, is that’s not a prolific winner. However, there can be little doubting that he has sufficient talent – and is sufficiently well handicapped – to win a race like this, if things drop right.

He’s risky for sure - but has been staked accordingly…

Others worthy of a mention, are Standing Ovation (thought rain will severely compromise his chances); Golden Chieftain (ran very promisingly on his seasonal debut – and is well handicapped): Opening Batsman (potentially very well handicapped) and The Young Master (extremely progressive and an eye catching jockey booking).

Victory for any of the 4 above named would come as a big surprise - but equally, nor would victory for any of the 3 we have on side –and they are all at bigger prices !!

0.25pt win Bennys Mist 16/1

0.125pt win According to Trev 16/1 Gen

0.125pt win Alfie Spinner 16/1 Gen

3:15

On quick ground, I would have been all over forgotten Voice in this – but with the distinct possibility of the ground becoming soft (or worse), he’s impossible to tip.

A group class performer on the flat – I thought he was given a very sensitive re-introduction to hurdles, by Barry Gerraghty at Kempton (behind The New One).

He also finished behind Hint of Mint that day – but I would have expected those placing to be reversed today.
However, decent ground is very important to him. So much so, that if it does significantly deteriorate, I would expect him to be withdrawn.

In his absence, Irving is clearly the one to beat – but with so many of the Nichols horses need their first run, he’s not one to take a skinny price on.
In the ground is soft, then Bertimont might be worth a risk at a fair price.

Harry Skelton stole a handicap hurdle on him at Chepstow last month – but I felt he was still quite impressive.

In truth, he’s impossible to get a handle on – but definitely has both ability and scope.
The other one I might have been interested in, is Fergal.

I get the feeling he has a big handicap in him – but again he has a preference for decent ground.

I could still see him running a good race though – and he’s the sort who could easily trade low in running (he tends to race up with – or just behind the pace).

2:05

Another race which was hard before the weather uncertainty – and impossible after it…

I think the market has the right ones at its head, with Blue Buttons, Tagrita and Polly Peacham the most interesting – and cases of sort possible to make for Mrs Peachy and Lily Waugh.

That said, I don’t think a shock is impossible either – so clearly a race to steer clear of !

Head on the block, I would opt for Blue Buttons – but then again, she’s favourite, so no prizes for originality..

Kelso

2:50

This feels more like a mid-week tip that a weekend one – but I’m hoping that if the weather does mess us up down south, Rockawango will be able to save the day up north…

When I looked at this race last night, I narrowed it down to 2: Swift Arrow and Rockawango.

Both have quirks – Swift Arrow doesn’t really like to pass horses – and Rockawango tends to find the fences get in his way – but in terms of ability/handicap mark and fitness, they looked by far the most likely winners of the race.

At early prices of 7/2 Swift Arrow: 13/2 Rockawango, it was therefore a relatively easy decision as to which one we wanted to be on (a bit like God’s Own and Balder Succes earlier in the week).

In terms of the case for Rockawango then, he’s always been a horse with significantly ability – but a record of 3 falls from 8 chases shows where his achilles heal is..

That said, I get the feeling that first time out over fences may well be the best time to catch him (before he’s hit a few and got scared of them !).

Certainly that was the case last season, when he bolted up at Carlisle following a pipe opener on the flat.

This time round, he’s been more active on the flat – but has been running pretty well.

There will therefore be no issue with his fitness - or indeed the form he is in. He’s also handicapped to win (as he is running off a mark 1lb lower than on his debut last season).

The issue really is the fences – plus possibly the opposition.

Still, you never get everything in this game – it s a question of deciding what matters most and being happy with the price.

Hopefully what matter most here is fitness and ability – though I won’t be counting my money until he has jumped the last – even if he’s 10 lengths clear at the time !

0.25pt win Rockawango 13/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Sandown 3:40 Loch Ba 0.5pt win 4/1

Sandown 2:30 Bally Legend 0.25pt EW 16/1

Wincanton 2:40 Bennys Mist 0.25pt win 16/1

Hexham 2:50 Rockawango 0.25pt win 13/2

 

Late

 

Sandown 3:05 Rhamnus 0.25pt win 20/1

Wincanton 2:40 Accroding to Trev 0.125pt win 16/1

Wincanton 2:40 Alfie Spinner 0.125pt win 16/1

 

Mentions

 

Wincanton 2:05 Blue Buttons (P )

Wincanton 3:15 Forgotten Voice (C )

Wincanton 3:15 Fergall (C )

 

Top Picks

 

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