Daily write-up - Nov 12th

3 NH meetings today: at Bangor, Exeter and Ayr…

A band of rain moving up the country; prices crashing left, right and centre; significant non-runners…

Just how much uncertainty can a tipster deal with at 8:30 in the morning.

The answer today, was not as much as was around !

As a consequence, I felt I had little option, other than to wait until things had settled down a bit.

Ofcourse the down side with that, is that we might miss a price – but nobody is forcing us to bet – and on days like today, simply observing can often be the best course of action.

That said, all 3 meetings do offer potential opportunities.

Bangor, in particular, puts on a very good card, for a mid week.

There have already been some serious price movements this morning – and I’m sure there will be plenty more before the off…

I’ve settled on the one tip – the one I intended to put up at 8:00.

However, there are also a few relatively strong mentions, which it may also pay to take notice of.

Here are my thoughts…

Bangor

2:00

Part of the reason for me wanting to get involved in this race, was because I felt there was a suspect favourite, in the shape of Operating…

Making it’s debut for Donald McCain, off a mark 14lb higher than it was successful from at Punchestown, on the back of a 6 month break – and with the possibility of unsuitably soft ground, I felt it had to be taken on at an early price of 5/2.

Unfortunately, for whatever reason (he’s been self certified), Operating was declared a non runner this morning, which obviously put a completely different perspective on the race…

However, I think there is still just about enough in the price of Howards Legacy, to get involved…

I have a feeling that the race won’t actually take that much wining and I suspect that Howards Legacy will be revved up for today – whilst there is a possibility that one or two of his rivals won’t be..

The reason I think he will be ready to go today, is because he’s come to hand early, the past two seasons.

Last season, he was pulled up on his debut – but that was after making a shocking blunder at the very first fence at Aintree, so I think that run can be ignored.

On what was effectively his seasonal debut (second time out), he ran a really good race, finishing runner up to Toby Lerone at Lingfield.

That run was off a mark of 129 – 4lb higher than he races off to day…

The season before, Howards Legacy did even better on his seasonal debut, handing out a comprehensive defeat to subsequent Welsh National winner, Mountainous.

Howards Legacy has not shown consistent form during either of the past 2 seasons, but there certainly seems to be a suggestion that the best time to catch him is when he is fresh.

Todays trip and ground should be fine – the only negative I can find is the absence of stable jockey, Aidan Colemen, who is riding at Exeter.
However, I’m not sure that is a particularly big issue (Liam Tredwell rides plenty of winners for Venetia)…

Of the others, then I am most interested in Knock a Hand – however, he wouldn’t appear to have much room for manoeuvre with regards to his handicap mark – and I suspect that todays run might being him on.

Herdsman, on his debut for Brian Ellsion; and What’s Happening, for the stable of Tom George, also look potentially dangerous rivals - though again, it wouldn’t surprise if both benefited from todays run…

0.5pt win Howards Legacy 7/1 BF,L,C

I was sorely tempted by Red Devil Lads, in the novice handicap chase at 1:30…

He was well beaten by Premier Portrait and Withoutdefavourite, at Worcester last time out – and even on the revised terms, would appear to have his work cut out today.

However, I find the booking of Paul Moloney, most interesting…

He’s only ridden 6 times for Rebecca Curtis, previously – but he has 3 rides for her today.

Red Devil Lads strikes me as the kind of horse who will respond better to his kid glove treatment, than for Richard Johnson (who rode him last time out).

I’ll certainly be very interested to see what tactics Moloney chooses to employ on a horse who has led on all his previous runs (he tends to hold up his horses).

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him turn the form round with the two who beat him at Worcester – but even if he does, there are another 2 or 3, who you would have to be fearful of…

Ultimately, I decided there was just too much guesswork/speculation.

At 14/1, I would have taken a small risk – at 10/1, I’ll just watch…

Perfect Candidate is the interesting one in the opener…

Very well backed for a better race than this on his seasonal debut, he ran a shocker.

He’s been dropped back in trip today – but based on his last time out performance, that will make no difference !

Clearly someone think he is handicapped to win – but you’d have to be prepared to completely ignore the Exeter run to support him.

The other thing that concerns me slightly, is that Paddy Brennan has gone to Exeter…

At 4/1, he might have been worth a risk – at 2/1, he isn’t.

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, I was half tempted to take on Kentucky Hyden.
Runner up in last seasons Triumph hurdle, a mark of 146 shouldn’t be beyond him.

However, as I said last week, I’m unsure about the strength of the juvenile form from last year. In addition, I think Kentucky Hyden is better on quick ground – and Barry Gerraghty isn’t at Bangor to ride him.

He may still win, but at 5/4, it won’t be with any of my money on him..

El Macca was a potentially interesting one – but his market weakness is off putting.

Foxclub, should run his race – but isn’t obviously well handicapped.

The one I that interests me most, is Flicka Williams.

He was very progressive last season and started this campaign with a good third place run at Carlisle.

He gets to run off the same mark today – and at 10/1, is just about an EW price.

I’m tempted – but feel there are just too many uncertainties in the race…

Exeter

The novice handicap chase at 2:10 in the most interesting race on the Exeter card…

Bottom weight, Harry’ Farewell is the one that first caught my eye – however he has been backed from 5/1 last night, to 7/2 now.

As there are a number of others of interest in the race, I can quite easily pass at that price…

Chief amongst them for me, is Moorlands Mist.

I was really impressed with him over hurdles last season, when he won a very hot race at Chepstow, that I honestly thought he was going places.

However, it’s been all down hill since then – with him changing stables over the summer.

He’s now had a couple of runs for Colin Tizzard and makes his debut over fences this afternoon.

He may well come on for the experience – and I won’t be backing him – but I will be watching him closely.
If Tizzard can get him back in the groove he could be one to keep an eye on over the next few months.

Pretty much all of the other runners in the race are also of some interest - so it’s clearly not a race to get involved in.

Very much one to watch closely though…

Ivy Gate doesn’t really have the form to warrant an interest in the 1:40 race – but I suspect he will ultimately prove to be better than he has shown so far.

Certainly the booking of Maurice Linenhan for his only ride of the day, catches my eye…

Finally, Paddy Brennan has turned down some decent rides at Bangor, presumably to ride Baby King on his debut for Tom George, in the 2:40 race…

Without him in the race, I could have been quite interested in Leviathan – but I suspect it might be prudent to take notice of the subtle signs.
Whatever, another very interesting race – if only from a watching perspective.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Bangor 2:00 Howards Legacy 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Mentions

 

Bangor 1:00 Perfect Candidate (P )

Bangor 1:30 Red Devil Lads (O )

Bangor 3:00 Flicka Williams (O )

Exeter 1:40 Ivy Gate (S )

Exeter 2:10 Harry’s Farewell (P )

Exeter 2:40 Baby King (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None