Daily write-up - Nov 6th

There are 4 mediocre (at best !) cards today: at Musselburgh, Fakenham and Towcester in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

You would think that the most difficult thing about being a tipster (or NH racing advisor, as I like to call myself  ) is finding winners – but that’s not how it feels at the moment…

I mentioned the other day about the issues I’d been having with the email distribution list that I use - well, the gremlins struck again this morning.

I was just about to send out the ‘advance notification’, when I noticed it was only going to get sent to half of you.

This is the same problem that has occurred half a dozen times before – and I’ve got round it by deleting the distribution list; re-adding it – and then repopulating it.

I tried to do the same thing this morning – but instead I managed to delete all of you from my address book !
Nightmare !!

I now need to re-add you all to my address book, which is going to be a labour intensive, time wasting task.

I’ll look to do it after I’ve sent out this write-up (I’m typing your names in manually for this !) – and I’ll try out the new distribution list when I issue the Review of the day, later.

Therefore, if you don’t receive a copy of the Review of the day, let me know !

This is important – as it means you will no longer be on the distribution list - and consequently won’t receive any communication from me…

The other issue I am having, is finding horses that I can act actually tip, in these low grade, mid week races..

It’s not that I can’t find horses that I think will win (or are good bets) – it’s just how I ensure that you’ve all got half a chance of getting on them, at a reasonable price…

The early markets are so sensitive, I just can’t tip into them (too few of you will get on).

Consequently, I’m going to be left sifting through the dregs – trying to find a bit of ‘value’ – or we will have to take ‘under the odds’ on the horses I really fancy.

It’s a dilemma for sure - and whilst it’s not a new one, it’s clearly one that is getting worse.

My current plan is simply to make a judgement call on a case by case basis. I’ve got the early window and the late window to use. I’ll experiment a bit and try to get a feel for what works best.

Like I say, not ideal – and not what a tipster (or racing advisor !) wants to be worrying about…

That should be the racing itself – and on that score, my initial feelings were right – it’s pretty poor stuff today.

There maybe 4 cards, but there is precious little to get excited about.

That said, I have managed to find a tip – and not the one I expected to be tipping this morning !

Here is a summary of my thoughts…

Musselburgh

3:30

After a very promising seasonal debut at Exeter, I think that Armedandbeautiful is one to be interested in here…

That run was also her chasing debut – but she ran with real promise...

Strictly at the weights, she had no right to get as close as she did to the first 2 home – but that’s not why I was taken with the run.

For a horse making her debut over fences, she jumped impeccably.

It was therefore somewhat ironic, that her only mistake of the race at the last (she pitched on landing) possibly cost her victory.

Maybe that will prove to be a blessing in disguise, as the official handicapper obviously took the view that the run flattered her – as he left her mark unchanged.

She should have no issues with todays quick ground – and whilst I’m not entirely convinced that the track will be ideal, the fact her trainer is prepared to send her on a round trip of over 600 miles to contest the race, has persuaded me otherwise !

There is not a lot of mileage in a best price of 7/2 – but the opposition looks decidedly moderate.

She already has form in the book good enough to just about win – and with plenty of scope for improvement, I felt I she was worth taking a chance on.

0.5pt win Armedandbeautiful 7/2 VC (10/3 T,BF,PP,SJ,BSp,BS)

In the handicap chase at 3:00, Drumlister makes its debut for Diane Sayer..

It’s difficult to equate the horse’s Irish form to UK form – but it has run a few reasonable races.

It also appears likely to be better suited to the quicker ground that it will get today.

It is a speculative one – but I suspect it might be a fair price and so could be worth a small risk.

Fakenham

The first race on the card (12:50) is one of the more interesting ones of the day – and I was very tempted by Stags Leap…

A former decent horse on the flat (when with Richard Hannon), he’s been in decline for a few years.

He went through the sales last January – and was moved to the stable of Phil Kirby.

Clearly he’s had a few issues, as he didn’t make his debut for Kirby until September.

That was on the flat- in a relatively poor staying event – but in finishing fourth that day, he did enough to show that a race such as today’s is well within his compass.

He is certainly attractively enough handicapped (off a mark of just 84 today) – and is the only horse that Kirby sends down today, from his North Yorkshire base, to the Norfolk track.

I’ve got 3 major issues with him: firstly, the possibility that he might ‘bounce’ on his second run back after a long absence (though I would be prepared to take that risk); secondly the opposition – this is the kind of race that lends itself to a coup – and the support behind Sea Rocket, is eye catching; and thirdly, the price.

9/2 is just about OK – but not with those other two doubts…

I feel he is better than a mention – but I can’t tip him – and I don’t think he’s a Top Pick.

A confusing one then !

I thought that Brass Monkey looked the one to beat in the 1:20 race – with Nick Skelton an eye-catching booking for Neil King.

However, the market has cottoned on to him and there is no value in a price of 9/4, with the horse making its seasonal debut (and therefore questionable fitness).

The presence of Barry Gerraghty at the Norfolk track, is a real surprise.

He doesn’t come over to the UK much during the mid week – and certainly not to ride at a card as poor as this one.

I can only assume that Broxbourne (or Nicolas Chauvin) are very well regarded at home.
Both are worth watching this afternoon, with an eye to the future.

Towcester

The handicap hurdle at 2:40 is probably the best race of the day – but the bookies have latched on to the obvious one in it, Orbys Man.

From the upwardly mobile yard of Charlie Longsdon, he ran well enough to finish fourth in a decent novice hurdle at Wetherby, last time out - and his opening handicap mark of 116 looks fair.

I think he will take the beating – and would expect his price to contract further, to support that…

I could make half a case for Bill the Lad in the handicap chase at 3:40..

Certainly his defeat of Freckle Face (amongst others) last December, reads well in the context of this race – and he gets to run off mark just 5lb higher today.

His fitness has to be taken on trust – but if he is ready to do himself justice, he should go close…

In the closing bumper, the booking of AP McCoy for a Marcus Tregoning trained newcomer, doesn’t just catch the eye – it nearly pokes it out !

It is also McCoys only ride of the day – and will almost certainly be over-backed.
There are 4 or 5 creditable alternatives – with Amour D’or the one I would choose to  support  (Lizzy Kelly is fair value for her 7lb claim – but unlike AP is likely to cause a price drift !) 

Thurles

I’ve saved the best till last – not !

Another poor card, where I can only get excited (relatively speaking) about 2 runners..

In the 1:25 race, Frederici is the one that catches my eye.
He was a reasonable hurdler and I suspect he will make up into a chaser of similar standing. However, there is little (in fact no !) margin in a best price of 7/2.

The other one of interest, is Sultana Belle in the 2:25.

She should be better for her seasonal debut at Fairyhouse last month – and will appreciate the step up to 2m4f today.

I could see her running a fair race - and 12/1 is a fair price – but she can’t be anything more than a mention.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Musselburgh 3:30 Armedandbeautiful 0.5pt win 7/2

 

 

Mentions

 

Musselburgh 2:30 Drumlista (S )

Towcester 2:40 Orbys Man (P )

Towcester 3:40 Bill the Lad (C )

Towcester 4:10 Amour D’Or (S )

Fakenham 12:50 Stags Leap (O )

Fakenham 2:20 Brass Monkey (P )

Thurles 1:25 Federici (P )

Thurles 2:25 Sultana Belle (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Musselburgh 3:30 Armedandbeautiful