Daily write-up - Nov 7th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Musselburgh, Fontwell and Hexham…

As you are aware, it was my tentative plan to take today off, following a very stressful day yesterday.

My early evening alerts confirmed there was nothing due to run that I was particularly looking out for – but being the consummate professional I am, I still thought I would spent half an hour, looking through the fields for the days big races (assuming there were any big races !).

And against all my expectations, that time was rewarded – my how it was rewarded..

Generally speaking, people judge tips in terms of their profit or loss – which is understandable.

However, I much prefer to judge them before the event…

And judged before the event, Broughton is likely to be one of the best tips I put up this season.
Ofcourse, this doesn’t mean he will win – it doesn’t even guarantee that he won’t run like Armedandbeautiful ran yesterday.

But as far as I’m concerned, that is irrelevant.

He is as good a tip as you’ll see from most services for a long term (obviously I wouldn’t include TVB in that, as I aim to set standards, not aspire to them  ).

Here is the reason why…

Musselburgh

3:00

My entry point to this race, was the Donald McCain trained Dispour.

He won a fair handicap hurdle at the end of last season – and looked interesting off a mark just 4lb higher today (particular with a season opening run at Chepstow under his belt).
I then looked a little closer at this form…

Last December, he ran fourth in the grade 2 summit hurdle at Doncaster.

He was beaten 17 lengths that day – but in the context of this race, that is acceptable form.

However, if you look at the result of that race, you will see that the runner up – beaten a head – was Broughton…

Admittedly he was in receipt of 4lb from Dispour – but as he was making his hurdling debut that day, there can be little doubt which is the superior animal.

Ofcourse, that is what handicaps are all about – and I fully expected to see Broughton having to give Dispour a stone or more – but no – he actually receives 5lb from him. That’s a pound more than he received when he hammered him by 17 lengths on his hurdling debut !

I’ve got to be honest, you don’t see form lines like that very often – and so it really caught my attention…

As a result, I looked further in to the form of Broughton – and things got even more interesting…

On his second hurdles outing, he ran over todays course and distance, and hacked all over Clarcam.

Again, he was receiving weight (5lb) – but a comfortable 5 length victory, suggest that he could be rated a few pound superior to that horse.

Clarcam is currently rated 140 – and Broughton runs off a mark of 130 today…

Broughtons next race was in the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

He was sent off a 13/2 shot for that grade 1 event – and despite getting wound up pre-race, he was still going very nicely coming down the hill.

The leaders quickened away from him up the straight, but there was little disgrace in his eight place finish in a championship event, on only his third run over hurdles.

His fourth and final run of last season was at Aintree – but I suspect he had gone over the top by then and that run can be ignored.

He was then put away to grass for the summer – and reappeared, again at Aintree in a good class handicap at their October meeting.
The betting that day suggested he needed the run (he opened on course at 8/1 – but drifted to 12/1 at the off) – and that was how he ran.

Moving quite nicely to the second last – but them seemed to blow up.

Comments from his trainer in a recent stable interview support the theory for his last 2 ‘disappointing’ runs:

‘When he ran at Aintree last month he travelled well through the race until two out, and it turned out he needed it. These older Flat-horses can get quite big through the summer. He was very good when he won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial at Musselburgh, but he then went to Cheltenham and Aintree and disappointed me both times. He'd had a hard summer on the Flat followed by a juvenile campaign and I think he was crying out for a holiday. I didn't listen to him because Cheltenham was just around the corner. This year I hope we'll find that he is a nice two-mile hurdler.’

So we come on to today…

-He is running over a course and distance where he has already been successful.

-He will have no issue if rains gets in to the ground – or if it stays good.

-He is trained by a man more than capable of winning this kind of race

-And he is ridden by the excellent Sam Twiston Davies.

I honestly believe that he could be competitive off a mark a stone higher than he is running off today.
So, why isn’t he a maximum bet, I can hear you asking…

Well, he could be – but I have 3 slight doubts in my mind:

Firstly, I don’t really get the application of blinkers; secondly, there is a chance that last years juvenile hurdlers were rubbish (his form is purely with them – and he takes on older horses today); and thirdly, he might be unlucky and bump into one (Buy back Bob worries me most)…

All this said, I do think he has an exceptional chance – and I also think that 11/2 was an exceptional price (I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off around the 5/2 mark).

As you can probably tell, I might be a tad disappointed if he doesn’t come home in front this afternoon…

0.75pt win Broughton 11/2

I’m not going to bother offering opinions on any of the days other races – I’m only really interested in one of them.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

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Musselburgh 3:00 Broughton 0.75pt win 11/2

 

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