Daily write-up - Nov 24th

They race this afternoon at Kempton and Ludlow…

One thing’s for sure, we won’t get many better Monday cards than the two we’ve got today – I’ve no idea where they came from, but I’m not complaining !

As is so often the case, my ‘day off’ yesterday, provided plenty of food for thought…

Firstly, it clearly shouldn’t have been a day off, as I managed to nail the Troytown ! (first and third) – but I was feeling drained from Saturday and it was a huge field.

Hindsight always helps in these situations…

Secondly, I felt the day helped me better get my head round how I should handle the extreme market moves that take place at these smaller meetings…

I mentioned a couple of horses yesterday, which I fancied – but which had been subject to heavy market support: Union Jack D’Ycy and Xaarcet.

Well the support for both of them just continued;

Union Jack went from 11/4 the night before: to 7/4 in the morning: and 5/6 at the off (admittedly with a non-runner).

Xaarcet went from 11/2 the night before: to 3/1 in the morning: and 5/4 at the off.

That is simply crazy !

There is no way you could back either of those horses at those kind of prices (Union Jack won – but Xaarcet was beaten).

However, what it does do, is present opportunities later in the morning.

I mentioned Big Society and Lord Protector as potential drifters yesterday.

Well, Big Society went out to 8/1 yesterday morning – before being backed into 11/4 at the off: whilst Lord Protector went out to 11/2 in the morning – but had an SP of 7/2.
As it happened, both horses lost – but both ran well enough to be considered slightly ‘unlucky’.

My conclusion was that I have to assess the race – and then simply look to see if there is sufficient value to warrant a tip at either of the times I open the tipping window ie. 8:30 – and late morning.

If there is, I tip, if there isn’t I don’t

It’s as simple as that !

Thirdly, I received a couple of pleasing emails…

The first was from an existing subscriber, Dave. Dave doesn’t follow all of my tips (in fact, he follows very few !) – he’s a form student in his own right.
However, he does pay attention to the horses I pick up on…

Dave recalled that I was keen on Union Jack D’Ycy last time it ran (at Uttoxeter). When he saw on Saturday evening, that it was running yesterday – he checked out the race – and whilst he didn’t manage to secure 11/4, he was able to back it at 9/4.

That price wasn’t an option when I was able to tip – but Dave was still able to use the service to help him back a winner.

Similarly, I got an email from a guy called Liam, last night.

Liam was with the service last year, but was unable to re-subscribe this year because of work commitments (he now spends a lot of time away from home).

He lives in Ireland and was watching the racing from Navan yesterday afternoon.
He recalled that I had been a big fan of Pencilhimin last season, so when he saw the horse running, he took an interest – and was well rewarded, when it won at 20/1…

The moral of these stories – and as I’ve said hundreds of times before – to get the best out of the TVB service, try not to use it in a purely prescriptive fashion.

Anyway, enough of the anecdotes from yesterday – and on to todays prescriptive tips !

Once again, it was not easy getting them out in a manner that gave you all a reasonable chance of getting on.

I was keen on both horses – but knew that they were likely to be hammered in the market (simply, they were bound to be picked up by anyone capable of reading form).

I made an objective judgement on fair prices for them both: 5/2 for Lost Shot: 5/1 for Lord Landen – and was prepared to tip them simply because those prices were still available.

Hopefully you all managed to secure at least those odds – and hopefully they will prove to be good investments.

Here’s the reasons why I believe they will be…

Kempton

2:45

Simply, anyone who studies form should have been all over Lord Landen in this race…

Last time out, he ran in a race at Cheltenham, which is proving to be not just hot – but positively molten !

It was a relatively innocuous amateur riders race on the first day of the October meeting, which at the time, didn’t look anything special.

But the form of the first 3 home in that race, just couldn’t be any stronger…

The winner, was The Young Master – he subsequently followed up in the Badger Al chase at Wincanton and is now rated 23lb higher than he was that day.

The second horse was Charingworth. He won a tight contest at the Paddy Power meeting on his next outing and is now rated 10lb higher than he was that day.

Whilst the third horse home, Balbriggen, won the Troytown chase yesterday - for which he will likely get a stone rise in the handicap.

It was over 50 lengths back from the third horse to the fourth horse – which maybe should have given an indication that the form could possibly be strong…

Lord Landen wasn’t the fourth horse that day – but he would have been, had he stood up.

Instead, he took a tired fall at the second last fence.
However, that was perfectly understandable, because the trip of 3m1f was probably further than he is capable of running.

Furthermore, he was ridden quite aggressively that day, taking up the running at half way and pressing on strongly.
In fact, he looked to have most of the field in trouble approaching the home turn, - but  then weakened when passed.

He drops back to 2m4f today – which should be perfect (he won two races over that distance, last season).

And whilst he is 3lb out of the handicap today (which I’m sure is part of the reason why his price was ever as big as it was) he has been dropped 1lb in the handicap and has a decent 3lb claimer on board…

I have two issue with him: firstly he like to front run – and this is a race chock full of pace. His jockey will need to play his cards right if he is to be successful. Secondly, I have real concerns over the soft to heavy going, He has never won on such a surface – though he’s not tried too often either.

If he was the sole front runner and this race was on decent ground, he would be a near certainly (assuming no jumping mishaps) – however that’s not the case.
The question is simply therefore, what price is acceptable for those risks (and they are significant).

In my mind, I wanted at least 5/1. There are some decent horses in opposition, so he can’t afford to be too far off his game.
7/1 this morning was fine – but despite the market support, he is no certainty.

I actually think he is as likely to be pulled up as he is to win – but I think he is more likely to win than the early morning odds implied !

Lets hope things pan out well for him…

0.25pt  win Lord Landen 7/1

A couple of really interesting novice events, open the Kempton card.

I suspect that Nicky Henderson and Barry Gerraghty will be disappointed if they don’t grab both prizes – but neither (the novice chase in particular) is a formality…

I gave a little bit of thought to tipping One More Tune in the handicap hurdle at 1:35.
He caught my eye last time at Cheltenham in a hot novice event – but he is difficult to get a proper handle on…

My feeling is probably not today.

A few more pounds off his mark and he will definitely be of interest, however…

I’m a huge fan of Polly Peachum – and she should take a world of beating in the mares hurdle at 2:10 – but I won’t be backing her…

3 Miles on heavy ground is unknown territory for her. More than that, she has struggled a bit on heavy ground in the past.
Her class might get her through – but L’Unique looks a more interesting proposition today, at the 5/1 on offer…

Finally, I was half tempted by Germany Calling in the handicap hurdle that closes the card – but the presence of a couple of unexposed Nicky Henderson horses puts me off.

I think Germany Calling sets a fair standard – and Charlie Deutsch is well worth his 6lb  - but simply, you can’t be sure of the opposition.

The market will know though – if the Henderson horses are weak, Germany Calling should win…

Ludlow

2:20

It’s tough to make much of a case for the 2 outsiders in this, which effectively makes it a 5 horse race…

If all of the runners had an even chance, that would mean they would all be 4/1 chances.

That’s the price we got on Last Shot (hopefully) – but I think that he and Oyster Shell are the most likely of the 5 to be successful..

In Truth, I find it very difficult to split the pair.

The actually ran against each other in a similar contest over this course and distance last season – and there was still very little between them coming to the third last fence.

However, Last Shot got that wrong and catapulted Aiden Coleman out of the saddle.
His reaction when he hit the ground, was very interesting – it gave the distinct impression he felt he was on the winner !

I would be more circumspect – but either way, he was on a horse that was going to go very close…

Last Shot is a couple of pounds better off with Oyster Shell today – and that will help.

Aside from that, you pay your money, you make your choice.

Oyster Shell was a point shorter in the betting this morning, which is why we are on Last Shot.

If Oyster Shell had drifted to 4/1 during the morning, we would be on him as well.

He’s not, so we aren’t !

Of the others, then Arkaim was flattered by his last time out win: La Bacardy is likely to improve for the run; and Sir Valentino is likely to clout at least  one fence. If he happened not to, he would be a real danger.

Simply them this was all about the maths – and Last Shot was the horse with the best numbers at the time I was able to tip.

0.5pt win Last Shot 4/1

In the novice chase at 1:20, Cirtizenship would be of interest, if he got to a silly price (14/1+) - which he might do on Betfair: whilst I wouldn’t want to be taking a short price on Chicoria in the 1:50 race. Superior Fire could be the one for that particular contest.

In the 2:55 race, Buddy Love was a hugely impressive winner last time out – but effectively races off a 17lb higher mark today (if you include the jockey claim from last time). He might still follow up – but the one that really catches my eye, is Fishing Bridge.

He is too speculative to tip – but I suspect he has a race of this nature in him.

There will be worse 25/1 shots running today, that’s for sure.

Finally, Hand on Bach is of some interesting the handicap hurdle at 3:25

He is certainly well enough handicap to win a race like today – but the price has now shrunk to 4/1 and that is insufficient reward for a horse making it’s seasonal debut against a big field of unexposed sort.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ludlow 2:20 Last Shot 4/1

Kempton 2:45 Lord Landen 7/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Ludlow 1:20 Citizenship (S )

Ludlow 1:50 Superior Fire (S )

Ludlow 2:55 Fishing Bridge (S )

Ludlow 3:25 Hand on Bach (P )

Kempton 1:35 One More Time (S )

Kempton 2:10 L’Unique (O )

Kempton 3:45 Germany Calling  (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None