Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

There are 4 meetings today: at Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK – and Cork and Naas in Ireland – and all 4 have some merit…

Carlisle, in particular, put on a really good quality card – and it will certainly be worth keeping an eye on the runners there, with a view to the future.

I note that there has been some rain overnight at all of the tracks – with some more likely during the day.

That news always fills me with trepidation – but hopefully it won’t result in any major going changes…

I’ve ended up issuing just the 2 tips on the day.

As I suggested in the advance notification, there were a number of boderline calls.

A couple of likely tips were dropped to mentions; whilst two mentions were promoted to tips – though one of those was then dropped back to a mention !

Let’s hope I’ve managed to get the calls right !!

Carlisle

2:35

Grove Pride looks a very interesting contender for this race…

He’s always threatened to be much better than a 126 rated chaser – but his career has never really managed to get off the ground.

Despite being 9 years old, he has only had 14 career outings, suggesting that he is not the most physical sound of animals.

However, on numerous occasions he has managed to achieve quite a high level of form.

He has also shown himself capable of performing well after a break – which will be the case today.

Provided the ground rides just on the soft side of good, he shouldn’t have any issue with it – and whilst this will be the furthest distance he has run over, if he fails for a lack of stamina, he will the first Henry Daly inmate to do so !

Talking of Daly, it seems to have gone under the general radar, that he is currently in tremendous form. 9 of his last 14 runners have finished first or second – a number of them at decent prices. Unfortunately for him, only 1 of those 9 actually won – but his horses are clearly in rude health.

It is therefore quite interesting that he sends Grove Pride over 200 miles from his Shropshire base – and is his only runner at the meeting…

In fairness, this is quite a competitive race – and it’s possible to make a case for a number of the other runners.

Of the market leaders, Global Power and Orange Nassau look the pick – whilst of the longer priced runners, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fill the Power and Soudain ran well…

0.5pt win Grove Pride 10/1

Earlier on the Carlisle card, there is a tremendous looking novice chase off at 1:30.

The market is headed by Shantou Magic – and I suspect that is about right.

However, there are plenty of others in the race that warrant keeping a close eye on…

Warden Hill, Astigos, Jossies Orders and maybe most of all – Morning Reggie – are all potentially very exciting chasers for the season ahead.

Watch this race closely !

The handicap hurdle at 3:10 sees one of the horses that was demoted from my list of possible tips…

The horse in question is Hit the Tip, from the stable of Sue Smith.

My issue with him, is that whilst I would expect him to run very well – I just don’t think he has that much in hand of his current handicap mark.

Ofcourse, there is a chance that he will manage to win the race because non of his rivals are ahead of their marks either – but in a £12.5K, class 2 race, that is probably unlikely…

Certainly, top weight, Tap Night, is handicapped to win this, if he is able to bring his ‘A’ game to the table on his return to the smaller obstacles…

The intermediate chase at 3:45 looks a real cracker.

The trip looks on the short side for 3 of the 4 main protagonists, leaving Eduard as the most likely winner (assuming he is fit enough to do himself justice).

Either way, another race where is will pay to keep a close eye on all of the runners.

Finally, Obistar has the real look of a ‘job’ horse in the 2:05…

David Pipe sends him 325 miles to make his handicap debut – and applies cheek pieces for the first time, for good measure.

Needless to say the price will be dire (and could even get worse !) – but I expect him to win.

The first Top Pick of the new season !

Huntingdon

2:20

Now, I promise not to make a habit of tipping horses on gut feel/subtle signs, but equally there will be the odd occasion when I simply can’t ignore them – and I feel I have to follow my instinct.

Doctor Ric is just such a case this afternoon…

In truth, my lead into this race was actually Star Presenter. I think he has form good enough to just about win – but his stable is in woeful form and in truth, he doesn’t set too demanding a standard…

Having decided I couldn’t support him, I had a quick look at the other runners – and I stumbled across Doctor Ric.

He bolted up, just over 12 months ago, off a mark 10lb lower than today – and then showed himself potentially competitive off a mark such as todays, when running third at Fontwell.

But that’s not what makes him interesting…

He has his first run today for Nick Gifford – and is Giffords only runner of the day at Huntingdon.

I’m often interested in horses having their first run for new yards – as there is always the chance that they will be able to eak some improvement out of them.

Hopefully that will be the case with Doctor Ric - because if it is, then he should go close..

But not even that is what makes him really interesting.
What makes him really interesting, is revealed in the race title ‘The Macer Gifford handicap chase’ – Macer Gifford was Nick Giffords uncle.

Nick Giffords father, Josh, died a couple of years back – I get the distinct feeling that a sentimental coup could be in the offing today !

Ofcourse I may be wrong (I was yesterday with City of Dural !) – but we are again getting double figure odds to find out – and I bet I my theories are right more often than one in ten !!

0.25pt win Doctor Ric 12/1

Cork

3:20

12 months ago today, we had our first ‘sickener ‘ of the 2013-14 season, when I put up Unoccupied for the Cork National at 14/1 – and Sword Fish promptly galloped all over him, like a horse with a couple of stone in hand of the handicapper.

Sure enough, Sword Fish was raised 15lb for that win – and still went off 3/1 favourite for his next race.

However, he disappointed that day – and he’s disappointed every time he’s set hoof on the track since. As a consequence, he gets to run off a mark today, just 2lb higher than last year…

Adding insult to injury, Unoccupied is 8lb worse off with him for the thrashing he received last season. Even with Ruby Walsh on top, he’ll have to go some to turn that round – assuming Sword Fish is back anywhere near his best.

And unfortunately that is something that only a select few are likely to know – and I doubt they are telling !

Ofcourse, in all probability everything will become more transparent near the off as the market tells the tale – but that will be too late for us.

In the circumstances, it would probably be prudent to swerve the race – but I actually intended to play it with a straight bat and have small play on Protaras.

He really caught my eye on his penultimate start in the Munster National.

Ridden to get the trip that day, he finished to some effect and was unlucky not to be placed.

On that running there is nothing between him and Tom Horn (who is less than half his price today).

Next time out at Galway, he was dropped back in trip – but that worked against him and whilst he ran on well at the end of the race, he was never really getting there.

Over todays much longer trip, I would have been very interested in him – but for the overnight rain.
Protaras needs the ground quick and 15mm of rain is likely to leave it soft at best.

That should suit Sword Fish admirably – but I can’t tip him whatever.

Just a race to watch now – unfortunately…

The other horse of significant interest on the Cork card, runs in the following handicap hurdle at 3:50…

More Madness is very well handicapped on his chase form; will be fit from a recent spin at Limerick – and has a decent 4lb claimer in the saddle.

I would expect him to run a very big race – but would I expect him to win…?

I’m not so sure about that.

It’s a similar situation to Hit the Top at Carlisle – and unless you are backing EW (and I tend not to because of the inherent risks of the NH game) then seconds and thirds aren’t much good to you.

A pretty strong mention, non the less…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Carlisle 2:35 Grove Pride 0.5pt win 10/1

Huntingdon 2:20 Doctor Ric 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

None

 

 

Mentions

 

Carlisle 1:30 Shantou Magic (P )

Carlisle 1:30 Morning Reggie (S )

Carlisle 3:10 Hit the Top (O )

Carlisle 3:45 Eduard (P )

Cork 3:20 Protaras (C )

Cork 3:50 More Madness (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Carlisle 2:05 Obistar