Sunday 30 November 2014

Review of the day

Just at the moment, I feel like a striker who can’t find the back of the net…
It doesn’t seem to matter what I do – or what I try – the goals are proving elusive…

In fairness, my approach play remains sound – as does my team-work – but for whatever reason, I’ve lost that clinical edge in front of goal…

That was certainly the case today, with the days two tips running disappointingly…

First up it was Last Shot.
As I said this morning, this was very much a ‘value’ call (despite having already been backed !).
Getting 4/1 in a 5 horse race, about the horse you think most likely to win, is always going to be a good call.
And by the off, the market was agreeing, with Last Shot sent off the 9/4 favourite (which is about the price I would have had him at).

I even thought we’d been given a big break, when the horse I feared most in the race, Oyster Shot, refused to start.

Yet despite that, Last Shot never really looked like he was going to win.
He tracked Arkaim throughout the race – but that one always appeared to be going a bit better – and whilst a blunder and interference at the third last fence didn’t help, I don’t think it made any difference to the outcome.

In theory, I could have been interested in Arkaim at the 8/1 SP (bearing in mind I viewed it as quite a close 5 horse race) – but he was a 4/1 shot early and 11/2 when I issued. I couldn’t see any margin in those prices…

Lord Landen was a completely different kettle of fish, at Kempton.
He was always likely to either star or blow-out – and sadly, it was the latter.
Worse than that, it was apparent that after a couple of fences he wasn’t going to feature.

He was reluctant to start, didn’t jump with any fluency and was soon way behind the leaders…

Whether it was the ground; him not being good enough – or his connections sulking because they didn’t get a price – I’ve no idea…

In his defence, this wasn’t his form – and there was always a danger of the race not being run to suit. However he was beaten so early, it’s difficult not to wonder about the reason (particularly as he was supported so strongly early – but drifted a little near the off).

The winner, Tenor Nivernais, was the second of 3 winners on the day for Venetia Williams.
She only saddle 6 runners – one was a 50/1 shot in the novice hurdle, one was Last Shot – and the final one was Citizenship…

I put him up as a mention, and how he didn’t manage to win, I’ve no idea…
3 lengths up jumping the last, he certainly traded below 1.1 in-running – but was run down in the shadows of the post.
He’d drifted out to 20/1 as well – so it was an agonising defeat (for me, at least !).

Most of the days other mentions ran well – though non managed to win….

At Ludlow, Superior Fire finished third in the novice hurdle  – and Fishing Bridge a running on fifth, in the novice handicap chase. He made numerous mistakes on the way round – and if he can brush up his jumping, a similar chase can come his way.
Hand on Bach also ran well – but couldn’t muster the pace to challenge up the straight, plugging on for fourth place.

At Kempton, the Henderson hot pots in the first two races, were duly turned over.
One more Tune hadn’t been asked a question when unshipping his jockey in the handicap hurdle – whilst L’Unique finished third in a farce of a mares race…
I watched a similar race at Chepstow back in October, when non of the jockeys wanted to take the lead and eventually Harry Skelton stole the race.
Well it was the same situation here, with Daryl Jacobs taking 15 lengths at the start and the others never able to reel him back.
It was good jockeyship from Jacobs – but extremely poor from his rivals.
Finally, Germany Calling set out to make all in the last – but was collared by the Henderson duo between the last two, and they fought out he finish between them…

The NH racing tomorrow at Lingfield and Sedgefield looks poor.
I’ll double check in the morning, and confirm but I suspect that it will be a ‘no tip’ day…

TVB. 

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