Daily write-up - Nov 27th

The first day of Newburys 3 day Hennessy meeting, is the high-light of todays racing – with supporting cards at Taunton and Uttoxeter - plus Thurles in Ireland…

I would, ordinarily, expect a glut of potential opportunities on a day like today – but simply, they are not there…

The meetings at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter are dominated by small fields – and it’s the complete opposite at Thurles, with huge fields, but very short priced favourites.

I’m sure the desperate ground has had a negative impact on the field sizes in the UK – particularly at Newbury – but whatever the reason, it’s very difficult to find any suitable races to bet in…

I monitored 2 or 3 horses which I thought were possible tips – but their prices were tight last night – and they have got even tighter this morning.

No tips on the day, then – but a few mentions.

Here are my thoughts on the Newbury card  - plus a couple of races at Thurles (I’ve got nothing worth saying about the meetings at Taunton or Uttoxeter)…

Newbury

It’s difficult not to feel a little disappointed with todays Newbury card…

The first and last races have cut up badly – whilst there are only 3 runners in the feature novice chase…

In theory, the 4 handicaps on the card have sufficient runners in them, to be potential betting mediums – but in reality, there is so much guesswork involved, it would turn betting into a bit of a lottery…

In the 1:00 race, I am most interested in Woodford County.

He will love the ground – and I suspect still has improvement in him to progress beyond his current mark.

I actually considered him both as a tip – and as a Top Pick – but there is no margin in the current quote of 2/1 and I can’t see him drifting much either…

In truth, 2/1 is about where I would have priced him. I think he’s the most likely winner of the race  - but it’s impossible to say categorically that any of the other 4 in the race, can’t win.
If his price drifts a little (to say 3/1), he would be worth an interest – but otherwise, it will just be a watching brief…

The novice handicap at 1:30 looks even more difficult to unravel.

Loch Ba off a lower handicap mark than he runs off over fences is theoretically interesting – but only theoretically !

Flying Bandit also looks quite interesting, after a couple of promising runs. However a price of 4/1, takes no chances.

In short, I can’t see any angle into the race.

There are only 3 runners in the Worcester novice chase at 2:00 – and as My Silver Cloud is completely outclassed, to all intents and purposes this is effectively a match.

Despite being the less fancied of the two, Carraig Mor is the one I would be most interested in.
I’ve always been a huge fan of his and 3 miles on heavy ground should bring out the best in him.

Conditions won’t suit Southfield Theatre anywhere near as much – in fact, if it really is heavy, I could see him being withdrawn.

It’s not a betting medium – this morning, anyway. However it gets to post time, and the ground is indeed heavy – and Southfields Theatre is allowed to run, I will get quite tempted by Carraig Mor at anything bigger than 2/1…

If I had tipped today, it would have been in the 2:45 race – and it would have been Liberty One…

He opened up at 9/1 last night – and I would have been prepared to take a risk at that price.

However, he was 7/1 before the evening was over –and 6/1 this morning.

There is simply too much guess work involved – and too many potentially dangerous opponents in the race, to make him a bet at that price.

There are reasons for thinking he is attractively handicapped on a mark of 126.

As an ex PTPer, he is likely to make a better chaser than he did hurdler – and he wasn’t bad in that discipline.

He will have no issues with todays ground – and I do like the booking of Noel Fehily.

In short, he has ticks in a lot of boxes – however…

It’s impossible to get a handle on a number of his rivals.

Ned Stark won well at Huntingdon on his chasing debut and should be better for that run; whilst Caesar Milan could be much better than his initial mark of 133.

Both Gentleman Jon and Ashes House have a good deal of potential – and I couldn’t confidently dismiss the other 3 runners (though they do look more exposed).

Like I say, I would have taken a chance on Liberty One at a price because I think he sets a fair standard.

However, he faces a number of potentially useful rivals and as such can’t be anything more than a mention at the current 5/1….

The Gerry Fielden hurdle isn’t quite the race it use to be (in the days before the big bookmaker sponsored champion hurdle trials) – but it’s still a race of some prestige.

I therefore find it quite disturbing to see that the first 4 in the betting for the race, can muster only one previous run in the UK between them (Wicklow Brave ran in last years supreme novice hurdle).

The first and second favourites, L’ami Surge and Le Mercury, have raced exclusively in France – and are making their UK debuts today, for new stables.

Daneking and Wicklow Brave represent the County Carlow stable of Willie Mullins.

Now I have no issue with diversity – but it’s just about impossible to work out the relative merits of the respective form lines and therefore betting in the race is a non-starter (unless you happen to ‘know’ something).

A quick scan through the historical form of L’ami Surge shows that he finished runner up to Le Rocher at Auteuil a year ago.

That piece of form suggests he might have got in light today off a mark of 132. Whether that’s backed up by his other form though, I have no idea !

Thurles

There are 7 races on the Thurles card and at the moment, the favourites in 5 of them are priced up at: 1/7, 4/6, 1/2, 1/2 and even money !

To say the racing is uncompetitive, is a bit of an under-statement…

That said, there are some decent horses on show - non more so than Un De Sceaux, who makes his chasing debut in the beginners chase that opens the card.

He is one of the most exciting recruits to the chasing ranks that we’ve seen in a long time (I’m going back to Sprinter Sacre !) – and I would expect him to provide a spectacular sight at his fences.

There are actually some potentially decent sorts taking him on - but if he jumps round, he will win.

It’s as simple as that…

In terms of betting opportunities, I did have hopes that there might be one in the handicap chase at 12:50…

On the Shannon was in the process of running a huge race when he capsized at the second last at Thurles last time out.
He was upsides the eventual runner-up that day, Federici – and that one re-opposes today.

Now in all probability Frederici would have finished in front of  On the Shannon, even if he had remained upright – and as On the Shannon is only 1lb better off at the weights today, there is little reason to think the form will be over turned.

However, I suspect that On The Shannon is the more progressive of the 2 – and Frederici has been installed a 2/1 favourite..

On the Shannon was initially a 20/1 last night – and we were in business at that price.
However, he’s 10/1 this morning – and as an EW price, that’s nowhere near as attractive.

He has got a chance of winning – but even ignoring Frederici, there are 16 others in the race and a similar number of fences.

It’s a shame, because I would certainly have had a go at 20/1 – but at 10/1, against a horse he really shouldn’t beat, he can only be a mention.

Here’s hoping you have a great day if you do get involved.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 1:00 Woodford County (P )

Newbury 2:10 Carraig Mor (P )

Newbury 2:45 Liberty One (P )
Thurles 12:50 On the Shannon (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None