Daily write-up - Nov 9th

There are 4 NH meetings today: in the UK at Market Rasen and Ffos Las – and over in Ireland at Navan and Limerick…

4 meetings there may be – but there is very little to work with…

The meetings at Market Rasen and Ffos Las are low grade and uncompetitive. It’s a similar story at Limerick – and whilst Navan offers some much better quality action, betting opportunities are thin on the ground.

That said, I did manage to find one small tip.

Here is the rationale for it – and my other (limited) thoughts on the day…

Limerick

2:45

Just the one race of interest at Limerick this afternoon – and just the one horse as well…

Pippa Rose ran quite an eye-catching race on her seasonal debut at Down Royal, last Friday…

Always close to the pace, she put down a challenge approaching the last, but just couldn’t find enough to get past the leaders.

She eventually weakened back into fifth place – but in the circumstances, it was still a commendable performance.

Pippa Rose had actually been off the track for 15 months prior to that run – so you really would expect her to come on for it.

And whilst it is true that her form prior to her last run, was hardly spectacular - the opposition she faces today looks decidedly moderate.

The slight drop back in trip looks to be a positive move – as does the booking of 3lb claimer Kevin Sexton.

Whilst she couldn’t be described as the most solid tip I’ve ever put up – I think she represents a decent risk at 12/1

0.25pt win Pippa Rose 12/1

Market Rasen

There are 2 races of some interest at the Lincolnshire venue this afternoon…

The handicap chase at 1:45 is amusing, in so much as I can give you good reason why non of the runners will win !

They are all either badly handicapped: out of form; or from stables enduring terrible spells…

Having turned it around for a while, I did think the winner had fallen out, in the shape of Blackwell Synergy.

He ran a really good race last time out, when finishing runner up at Kempton in a more competitive race than todays.
However, his trainer, JohnUpson, has gone almost 4 years and sent out 120 runners, since his last winner…

He’s unlikely to have much better chance of braking that run than he does today – but despite that, I can’t big myself to tip him at 9/2..

The following race on the card is the other one of interest…

There has been a lot of talk about how slow a start to the season Paul Nicholls has made.
Well, he had 5 winners yesterday afternoon (split between Sandown and Wincanton) and probably would have had a sixth, if Irving hadn’t fallen at the last in the Elite hurdle.

If that’s a slow start, the others had better watch out when he gets into his stride !
He takes Black River to Market Rasen today – and I wouldn’t be surprised if the horse bolted up…

It’s impossible to be adamant about his form, but a  6 length drubbing of subsequent supreme novice hurdle winner Vatour, on his last run in France, does read rather well !

He was sent off a 5/4 shot on his UK debut and was still going fine, when he took a nasty fall at Newbury.

Nicholls switched him back to hurdles for his only 2 other runs last season – and he was disappointing on both.

I think we’ll see a different horse this season  - and at 9/4 last night, he would have been a 1pt win bet.

He’s 6/4 this morning – which is still tempting, as I could see him going off odds on.

I expect him to prove different class to todays rivals…

Ffos Las

Just the one race of interest at the Welsh venue – the handicap hurdle at 2:35…

I was actually half tempted to tip in the race – but I just don’t feel strongly enough about it to take the plunge…

If I had tipped, the horse I would have gone with, is Henri Parry Morgan.

He’s been of the tack for 15 months before making a pleasing return, over todays course and distance, when finishing third to Audacious Plan, 12 days ago.

He stayed on nicely that day and if the run has brought him on as I would expect, he should go close today…

That said, the race does have quite an open feel to it.
Molly’s A Diva is a worthy favourite; and Cyrien Star is Henry Dalys only runner of the day; I could also give chances to Ashford Wood and He’s the Daddy…

I think Henri Parry Morgan represents a bit of value at 9/1 – and I could certainly see him placing – but I would just be a little fearful that one or two might prove a touch too good for him.

Navan

I’m a big fan of the County Meath track – and it certainly puts on a decent card this afternoon…

The troubles is, whilst there will be a lot of horses running that I will like to see - there aren’t many that I’ll be wanting to bet on…

The Fortria chase is the high light of the card – and I kind of think I should be able to solve it…

Classically, Bailey Green should be the selection – in receipt of weight from a couple of horses who can’t match his level of form.
However, he was very disappointing last time – and it’s been a little while since he has shown his best. He might bounce back to form today (I hope he does – I’ve always  been a fan) – but he can’t be a betting proposition…

I can’t bring myself to select either of Twinlight or Days Hotel either…

They have to give weight to the field – and are plenty short enough in the betting…

With Arnaud and Special Tiara both wanting quick ground (and I’m guessing it’s not going to be that), it might be worth taking a small risk on course specialist Irish Thistle, to cause a shock.

He had a run on the flat last month, to blow away the cobwebs – and whilst he has a bit to find on official ratings, its probably just about doable.

At 20/1, he might be worth a small speculative play.

The one race on the card that does lend itself to a bet, is the handicap hurdle at 1:50…

Regular readers might remember that I’m a big fan of Luddsdenene. The horse has breathing issues – but a huge amount of natural ability.
Gordon Elliot has managed to squeeze a couple of wins out of him recently – but I think he might have bitten off more than he can chew today…

Always likely to be better giving weight to inferior animals – he could be competing against horses of similar ability today, who don’t have his physical problems.

He will travel through the race – as he always does – but at the business end, I would expect him to back out…

Good as Gold, is handicapped to go close.

She ran in plenty of handicaps similar to todays, last season – and invariably acquitted herself with credit.

She’s had a recent run at Fairyhouse, which should have put an edge on her – and the booking of Barry Gerraghty, who is riding close to his minimum weight, really catches the eye…

At 12/1+, she might be worth a small play…

Finally, there is a tremendous novice chasse at 3:30, where Gilgamboa takes on Blood Cotil (plus a few others for good measure !)

Whilst Gilgamboa might ultimately become the better over fences, I think Blood Cotil is the one to beat today…

He was electric over his fences at Cork in January – until he fell…

I would expect him to have been well schooled over the summer – and I would expect him to be sharper than Gilgamboa today.

A bit like Black River at Market Rasen, I’d make him a Top Pick – however, I do think there is a chance to price could be silly and I don’t want to be recommending a bet on anything at odds on…

  

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Limerick 2:45 Pippa Rose 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Mentions

 

Ffos  Las 2:35 Henri Parry Morgan (O )

Market Rasen 2:15 Black River (P )

Navan 1:50 Good as Gold (O )

Navan 2:25 Irish Thistle (S )

Navan 3:30 Blood Cotil (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None