Daily write-up - Nov 1st

Day 1 of the 2014-15 TVB season sees 3 good quality NH cards at Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal – plus a fair card at Ayr…

In an ideal world, I don’t suppose I would have opened my season on the cauldron of a Saturday ! – but that’s the way that things have fallen…

Still, nobody is forcing me to start off all guns blazing – and it will be more a case of dipping a toe into the water…

Tips in 4 races – 3 early plus 1 late – all to relatively small stakes, make for a quiet start to the season, but I feel happy enough with that.

As I’ve been saying during the pre-season, the fitness of some horses at this time of year, is pure guesswork – so where there is a bit of guessing involved, it makes sense to tread cautiously.

In addition to my rationale for the tips, I’ve also given my thoughts on the days big races.

I’ll start off at Ascot…

Ascot

2:40

If this race was being run a month from now, I would probably view it very differently: I’m a huge fan of Next Sensation and really expect him to go places this season: whilst on softer ground, and with a run under their belts, the likes of Bellenos, Manyriverstocross and Stone Light, would all be potentially much more interesting.

But it’s not – it is being run today – and as a consequence, I think one horse stands out…

Ulck De Lin is quite exposed, considering he is only 6 years old.

He actually burst on the scene a couple of years ago, when taking a competitive handicap at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting by a comfortable 3 lengths.

At that point, the world looked his oyster – but that’s not how it has turned out…
He managed to follow up his Newbury win with a win over todays course and distance. However that victory saw his handicap mark rise to 146 – and it’s all been downhill since that point…

A variety of trips – and aids – have been tried, but the end result has been the same…

Consequently, his handicap mark has slipped back to just 1lb higher than the mark from which he was successful at Newbury.

More than that, there were distinct signs, on his last outing at Plumpton in April, that he was returning to form.

True, he was a beaten favourite in a 5 horse race that day - but the horse that beat him is now rated 23lb higher than he was when they met – so Ulck De Lin would have had his work cut out beating him that day.

Although he doesn’t have a particularly spectacular record when fresh, I suspect that Paul Nicholls will have him cherry ripe today.

It wouldn’t surprise me if he has had his wind ‘tweaked’ over the summer – and the booking of the extremely useful 7lb claimer, Sean Bowen, really catches the eye.

Like I Say, in a months time, I probably wouldn't want to be on him against the rivals he faces – but today is a different matter…

0.5pt win Ulck De Lin 8/1

3:35

This is a real humdinger of a chase, packed full of potentially interesting horses – and I’ve taken 2 against the field: Ardkilly Witness and Gevrey Chambertin.

Ardkilly Witness is trained by Dr. Richard Newland: a man who runs a relatively small yard – but is building himself a big reputation.

Ofcourse, training the winner of the Grand National helps in that department – but in truth, he was a burgeoning force even before the victory of Pineau De Re at Aintree…

In Ardkilly Witness, he has another horse capable of landing some big prizes in staying chases.

The horse made his rules debut over fences (he has lots of experience in PTPs in Ireland) just 12 months ago, when he finished a highly respectable second to subsequent RSA chase winner, Smad Place, at Exeter.

After a couple more runs in novice chases, he switched to open handicap company and put in a couple of very respectable runs in relatively hot company.

So much so, that he was sent off favourite for the end of season B365 gold cup at Sandown.

He disappointed that day, but there must be a chance that his long season had caught up with him.

He returned to action this season at the Cheltenham October meeting, where he finished a highly creditable fourth in a very competitive handicap hurdle.

That race was over 2m5f – and he was noted staying on strongly at the end of the contest.

That should have blown away the cobwebs – and back over fences and with an extra 3 furlongs to cover today, I would expect to see a much improved showing.

I suspect that Dr Newland has had this race in mind for him for quite a while (he prepared Royale Knight in a similar fashion for a successful assault on a decent prize at Sedgefield earlier this week).

My only real concern is the ground, as he probably wants it a bit softer than it is.

However, he has got form on decent ground, so hopefully he will get away with it.

Gevrey Chambertin is another who would probably prefer slightly softer ground – but again, there are reasons for thinking he will get away with it today.

Successful off a mark of 143 over hurdles, he is certainly not short of speed – as he demonstrated over hurdles on a number of occasions.

He was very decent over the smaller obstacles and the expectation was always that he would be just as good (if not better) over fences. However, things just haven’t clicked, so far…

He was sent off a short priced favourite for the Grade 2 Reynoldstown novice chase over this course and distance in February – but raced too freely and was pulled up.

He next run over fences was in the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival – but he was too inexperienced to do himself justice in that ultra competitive heat.

He retuned to the fray in a 3 runner novice chase at Bangor at the start of last month – and whilst he did win, he was far from convincing.

Based on that run, he would have little chance today – but based on his hurdles form, he will take some beating…

I suspect he will either flop completely – or go very close – which makes him an ideal saver for the very solid Arkilly Witness.

Of the others in the race, then I respect the chances of both Roalco Des Farges and What A warrior. Both were impressive winners last time out – but as a result, run off much higher marks today and in a more competitive event.

The novice Le Bec, clearly has a lot of scope – but the same is true of Gevrey – and he has to give him 10lb (and possibly fitness).
Merry King should run his race – but wasn’t quite good enough last season – and would probably prefer more give in the ground.

The ground might also prove to be a bit lively for Black Thunder, Midnight Appeal, Katenko and Restless Harry. Whilst it is very difficult to get a proper handle on Irish raider Pass the Hat – and the bookmakers are hardly taking a chance with him !

In summary, I am happy with a main bet on Ardkilly – and a saver on Gevrey.

0.5pt win Ardkilly Witness 9/1

0.25pt win Gevrey Chambertin 12/1

The 3 novice events that kick off the Ascot card all look interesting with an eye to the future, but not really betting material.

I would offer you Changeofluck in the first, on it’s debut for Lawney Hill: and Cocktails at Dawn in the novice chase at 1:45 – but both based on relatively flimsy evidence.

I spent a bit of time looking at the handicap hurdle at 3:00 – but nothing much fell out.

If forced, I would opt for Mountain King to build on a relatively promising seasonal debut at Cheltenham.

Finally, Wilberdragon looks interesting making it’s debut for Charlie Longsdon, in the bumper that closes the card.

Wetherby

3:50

Earls Quarter caught my eye, last time out at Wetherby (OK, I’ll be honest, I backed him !)

He wasn’t exactly unlucky – just unlucky the way the race panned out.

Held up at the back, in a race where there is little pace, is rarely a good move – and so it proved that day.
Worse still, Earls Quarter was unlucky to bump into 3 potentially very decent (for the grade) rivals.

The winner of that race was Goodwood Mirage – a 95 rated flat horse, who looks like he might be fulfilling his potential over hurdles this season: whilst the runner-up, Lightening Rod, bolted up at Wetherby yesterday; and the third Tidal Way, is a well handicapped horse of Charlie Longsdons…

Admittedly Earls Quarter couldn’t get within 4 lengths of those 3 that day (which makes suggesting he was unlucky a little fanciful !) – but he still finished a couple of lengths clear of the rest of the field – headed by favourite Secrete Storm.

That one reopposes again today – and on 2lb better terms and with a run under his belt, should go well.

However, I felt that the way the race unfolded was more of an issue to Earls Quarter - and he is also nearly twice the price of Secrete Storm.

Obviously this is not just a 2 horse race – and the likes of Shadarpor, Shimla Dawn and Chase the Wind all have to be respected (and Matthew Riley closely watched !) – but I’m optimistic that I might have hit on a very strong early season form line with Earls Quarter and Secrete Storm – and I do love those J

0.5pt win Earls Quarter 7/1

The high light of the Wetherby card, is the Charlie Hall chase, due off at 3:15.

If he is fit (and the suggestion is that he is), then Silviniaco Conti will take the world of beating…

Arguably the best 3 mile chaser in training last season, he sets a very high standard on a flat track that suits him so well.

That said, he does face some interesting rivals, so will need to be close to his best…

Taquin De Seuil is a potentially top class animal – but I’m not sure that 3 miles on relatively quick ground, is what he wants (in fact, I’m a little surprised he is running).

The ground won’t be ideal for Double Ross either – though it should at least go some way to offsetting his stamina doubts.

The rival best suited by todays track/trip combination, is probably Menorah.

He took a while to find his form last season - but was a good winner at Sandown’s end of season meeting.
A lot will depend on how far forward he is this time round…

Of the Others, The Giant Bolster has a theoretically excellent chance on his run in last seasons Gold Cup – but Cheltenham is his track; whilst Medermitt seems a horse in decline.

Wayward Prince isn’t of this class – but will have been targeted at the race and will doubtless run as well as he is capable (though that shouldn’t be good enough to win – or even get that close).

There’s no too much more to get excited about on the Wetherby card…

Two 3 horse races don’t help (the absence of World Hurdle star, More of That, in the West Yorkshire hurdle seems to have left the race at the mercy of his owners, At Fishers Cross) – whilst I haven’t a strong view on the opening novice event.

Solar Impulse looks the one to beat in the novice handicap chase at 1:30 – but the market is wise to that and he’s no betting proposition at even money.
Of more interest is the Tim Easterby trained Dark Dune.
He is making his fencing debut today after a pipe opener in the hurdle race won by Goodwood Mirage.

Priced at 16/1, he might be worth a tiny play…

I also wouldn’t be rushing to take 11/8 on Aurore Destruval in the mares hurdle at 2:05 – though I’m not sure what I would put up against her !
Maybe Bonne Fee can take advantage of her race fitness…

Down Royal

3:40

City of Dural might seem a slightly odd selection here…

A very exposed 12 year old horse, competing in a relative poor handicap chase.

However, you’ll be delighted to hear that I have my reasons for tipping him !

Most of them revolve around his last time out run at Downpatrick – which wasn’t just eye-catching, it was eye-popping !

A totally unfancied 25/1 shot, he was held up way out the back (so much so, he was out of the screen for most of the race !).

However, as the horses up front started to weaken, City of Dural started to improve – cantering past his rivals, one by one…

Unfortunately, his jockey had left him with too much to do – and he could only manage to finish (like a train) into fifth place.

He was beaten around 5 lengths – would have been third in a couple more strides – and would probably have won in another 100 yards.

Interestingly his jockey failed to weigh in after the race (though that could ofcourse be coincidental !).

What makes him of particular interest today, is that he once again running north of the border – but now at the biggest meeting staged in the country all season.

Those of you with decent memories will recall me tipping Monstrell on the first day of the season 2 years ago, with similar logic.

My belief is that today is the day for City of Dural – a final hurrah on his ‘home’ track.

Ofcourse, I could be completely wrong: he might be a rogue – with endless ability that can’t be harnessed – but at odds of 11/1, I’m prepared to take a chance on that.

Don’t miss this one – I think you might regret it if you do J

0.5 pt win City of Dural 11/1

The big race at Down Royal, is the JN Wine Champion chase.

This looks a fascinating contest – but also looks near on impossible to unravel !

Gold Cup runner up On His Own looks a crazy price at 12/1 – but that is probably because Ruby Walsh has deserted him in favour of stable companion Boston Bob.

That probably makes him the one to beat – but I don’t think he has much in hand of his field…

Certainly, the mare Ma Filleule is a very interesting addition to the top table of 3 mile chasers – particularly with her 7lb allowance.

If fully tuned up, she could make them all go.

Also, the fact that Sam Twiston Davies is over to ride Rocky Creek (when presumably he could have gone to Wetherby and ridden Silviniaco) has to make him of interest.

Add into the mix the two Gigginstown runners – First Lieutenant and Road to Riches – and a couple of potential wild cards in Tammys Hill and Realt Mor (the latter likes to go from the front and could be an interesting in running play) – and you have quite a puzzle…

My feeling is that Boston Bob is the most likely winner – but whether 7/2 represent any value is more of a mute point.

Finally, I would expect Don Cossack to get the better of Wonderful Charm in the conditions chase at 3:05 – but a 3 horse field again makes little appeal from a betting perspective.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 2:20 Ulck De Lin 0.5pt win 8/1

Ascot 3:35 Ardkilly Witness 0.5pt win 9/1

Ascot 3:35 Gevrey Chambertin 0.25pt win 12/1

Wetherby 3:50 Earls Quarter 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

DR 3:40 City of Dural 0.5pt win 11/1

 

 

Mentions

 

Ascot 12:40 Changeofluck (O )

Ascot 1:45 Cocktails at Dawn (O )

Ascot 3:00 Mountain King (O )

Ascot 4:05 Wiberdragon (S )

Wetherby 1:30 Dark Dune (S )

Wetheby 3:15 Menorah (C )

DR 2:30 Boston Bob (P )

DR 3:05 Don Cossack (P )

 

Top Picks

 

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