Daily write-up - Nov 16th

It’s the final day of Cheltenhams Open meeting – and they also race at Fontwell in the UK; and Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

There has been a little more rain overnight at Cheltenham – and the ground is now described as heavy. That is a worry…

It’s also heavy at Fontwell and Cork – winter seems to have descended on us rather quickly this year…

I went through all the Cheltenham races last night – but non of them have got a great shape for betting.

I wouldn’t attempt to solve the first or last races – whilst there are issues with the 4 remaining contests (not helped by the state of the ground).

I’ve settled on two tips from the meeting – and a few mentions.

There were at least a couple of races of interest, at each of the days 3 other meetings. However the markets are very tight and as a result we’ve ended up with just two additional tips.

Here are my thoughts on a busy day…

Cheltenham

1:35

I was half tempted to take a risk on The Govaness in this race – but that’s exactly what it would have been…

She won the mares bumper at this meeting 12 months ago and followed that up by running fourth in a similar contest at Aintree, in the spring.

She made her hurdling debut at Ffos Las in October, and would have won, but for jumping errors.

I’ve no doubt that run will have brought her on – and in receipt of significant weight from all of her rivals, she is tempting at 10/1.

The issue is, it’s impossible to get a proper handle on her form – and indeed that of her main rivals.

Certainly, Emerging Talent, Vyta Du Roc and Commissioned, have all shown significant ability.

I suspect this will come down to who handles the ground best.

The Govaness has a chance- and is well worth a mention – but there is just a bit too much guesswork to make her a tip.

2:10

I think Little Jon will run significantly better than his odds imply in this – and on balance, I figured he was worth a small tip…

Part of the reason why I am keen on him, is because I have issues with most of his rivals…

Court Minstrel is probably the most talented runner in the field – but I’ll be amazed if he goes on the ground (in fact, I’m amazed they are even running him on it); VibratoValtat is a ‘character’ – and whilst there is no denying he has plenty of talent, I will be interested to see how he reacts to the Cheltenham hill in heavy ground; it invariably pays to take on northern horses, like Duke of Navan, when they raid down south; and whilst Dunraven Storm is a fair animal – he’s no world beater and pushing 10…

Little Jon is the lowest rated of the quintet, but he put in a good performance on his chasing debut last month, when giving 5lb to the now 140 rated Solar Impulse.

That suggests that Little Jon ran to a rating of 145 – which would put him right in the mix this afternoon.

Add in the fact that he’s likely to get an uncontested lead on ground that he will handle better than most, and you have an interesting situation.

Certainly I can see him attacking from the off – and battling up the hill.

I’ve no doubt that the likes of Court Minstrel and Vibrato Valtat will cruise in behind him for most of the journey – but whether they will able to get past him, up the hill, is a completely different matter.

Lets hope not !

0.25pt win Little Jon 12/1

2:40

This strikes me as a 2 horse race, between Dodging Bullets and Uxizandre – but as they are 5/2 joint favourites, that statement is not really going to make us rich…

Of the 4 other runners, then Poole Master and Lancetto don’t look up to this class: I’ll always be happy to take on Simply Ned in a race like this; and Module is held by Dodging Bullets on their run at Newbury, back in February…

Choosing between Dodging Bullets and Uxizandra is a little trickier…

Uxizandra is likely to have the run of the race up front – and with his stamina guaranteed (he is dropping back in trip), he could well take some passing.

On the other hand, his best form has been on a quicker surface – and he might be done for toe at the business end of the race, by specialist 2 milers…

Dodging Bullets comes here without a prep run – but that is actually likely to be in his favour as he tends to go best fresh.

I don’t think the heavy ground will be ideal for him either - but as he showed at Newbury, he can get through it.

He has ticks in just about every box – the only question is whether he is good enough.

On official ratings, he is fourth best in the race – but I make him the most likely winner – and a Top Pick.

3:15

This looks like a ferociously competitive race – but all the same, one horse stands out for me: Clondaw Warrior…

It’s not often that you see a Willie Mullins horse at the bottom of the handicap – and whilst this one is, there is a strong argument that it shouldn’t be…!

Clondaw Warrior is handicapped over hurdles, on the form it showed for former trainer, John ‘The Shark’ Hanlon.

When with Hanlon, Clondaw Warrior was rated 52 on the flat – and 115 over hurdles (the UK handicapper has upped the hurdles rating by 6lb – but that’s not unusual).

Clondaw Warrior had his first outing on the flat for Mullins in August – and he hacked up by 8 lengths.

2 months later, on his fifth outing for Mullins, he won the Irish November handicap of a mark of 86. He is now rated 92 on the flat – in short, Mullins has improved the horse by 40lb (and he might still find further improvement in him).

If he were able to perform the same feat over hurdles, the horse would be rated 155 – in short, he would be thrown in today…

Now in fairness, it’s not likely to be that simple.

When with Hanlon, the horse had a higher relative hurdle rating than it did flat rating – so there isn’t quite the same scope for improvement.
That said, it is reasonable to think that the horse should be rated 140+ - and he is getting to run today off a mark of 121…

Simply, if that is the case, few of his opponents can possibly beat him (because few could possibly be 20lb ahead of the handicapper).

The likes of Vaniteux and Baltimore Rock, would need to be borderline Champion hurdle horses – and whilst that is not impossible, it is unlikely.

Consequently, Exitas is probably the most dangerous rival (as he could possibly be a 150 rated horse) – but in all probability, if the ‘maths’ is correct, Clondaw Warrior should win.

However, there is a potential fly in the ointment – the ground…

I have serious concerns about his ability to handle the going. He has shown some form on heavy ground – but I really don’t think it’s his preferred surface.

Ultimately, I figured this simply came down to a bet on whether Clondaw Warrior could cope with the under foot conditions he will face today.

We won’t know whether he can until it is too late – but I figured at 11/2, is was worth a risk to find out.

0.5pt win Clondaw Warrior 11/2

I’ve no strong thoughts on the 2 other races on the Cheltenham card - but if forced to play, I would take a risk on with Derrintogether Bliss at huge odds in the first; and Masterplan, in the last.

Punchestown

3:20

As regular readers will know, I do love my Irish racing – particularly on a Sunday afternoon.

So far this season, I’ve not found too much in Ireland – but I’m optimistic that I might have found a couple this afternoon…

The first of those is Crowded Room.

He was a major eye catcher last time out – in fact, so much so, he even caught the eye of the Irish stewards (so it really must have been blatant !).

Held up out the back, in a fair handicap hurdle at Naas, he finished like the proverbial train, making up ground hand over fist, to be beaten less that 10 lengths at the line…

Now, presumably connections got away with it, because it was his seasonal debut; he was running over a trip at least half a mile short of ideal – and he had an inexperienced 7lb claimer on his back.

Rather amusingly, the stewards apparently warned the apprentice that he needed to be seen to make more of an effort in future (as opposed to actually making more of an effort !!).

Anyway, roll on to today: Crowed Room now has that run under his belt – and is running over a more suitable trip (an additional 6 furlong).

Apprentice Mark Flanagan keeps the ride – but if nothing else, you can almost guarantee it will look as if he is doing his level best to win ;)

And if he is, I think he should go very close.

Crowded Room was unlucky not to win a chase off a mark a stone higher than he runs off today, on his final outing of last season – he is well handicapped.

With trip and ground in his favour, and a jockey on his back with something to prove – I think he has an excellent chance of victory

0.5pt win Crowded Room 5/1

The high-light of the Punchestown card, is the Morgiana hurdle at 2:15.

This looks to effectively be a match between reigning Champion hurdler, Jezki –and Irish hurdling legend, Hurricane Fly.

Little King Robin will put the pace to the race – and provided the jockeys on the big two don’t give her too much rope (she is no slouch), she should set the race up nicely for them.

Clearly Jezki was the better of the two last spring – but first time up this season – I could see the Hurricane exacting his revenge.

He’s edging out towards 2/1 in the betting – and at that kind of price, I would be tempted, in what should really be a match.

The other race of significant interest on the card, is the Florida Pearl novice chase at 1:40.

Cheltenham festival winner, Very Wood is a short priced favourite for this, but I think he might have his work cut out to beat Shanahans Turn.
He was also a useful novice hurdler last season – and looked the more natural of the pair on their fencing debuts.

I could have been tempted by him at a price – but that price would have needed to be a bit bigger than the 7/2 on offer…

Cork

2:00

My line into this race was via Is Herself About.
She is very well handicapped over hurdles and made a pleasing seasonal debut when finishing second in the Naas race that Crowded Room ran in.

She nearly stole the race that day, taking 10 lengths out of the field at the start – and all but holding on.

There is therefore a chance that the result flatters her a little..

The other thing that concerns me, is that there is another front runner in the race, in the shape of the well fancied Snapchat.

Clearly both horses can’t make the running today, so there is the chance that the race won’t be run to suit either of them (that’s kind of what I’m hoping for  !).

The other well fancied horse in the race, is the Willie Mullins trained Alileo.
He’s been really disappointing so far – and whilst there is a chance that his form will improve now that he makes his handicapping debut, that’s not really Willies Style…

Next in the betting is Specific Gravity – and here’s where it gets interesting..

Initially trained on the flat by Henry Cecil, he managed to get a rating of 100 in that sphere (and run to that level).

He had a spell with Mick De Kock, when he ran in Meydan – again running to a level of around 100.

He moved to his current trainer, Adrian McGunines, in the middle of this year – and after an initial run, managed to finish runner up in a decent Curragh handicap off a mark of 95.

All of this flat form suggest that Specific Gravity should have the ability to run to a mark of 130+ over hurdles.

However, his 3 runs over hurdles haven’t shown a lot – and he’s been allocated a mark of 102. Based purely on his flat form he could have 30lb in hand today…

Ofcourse, that’s not guaranteed – he simply might not be take to hurdles – but I think it is worth a risk.

Certainly the much softer ground he will encounter today should suit him a lot better than the quick ground he was running on when showing little.

I’m pretty sure that the betting will foretell his fortunes whatever, so if you are backing at SP, I would suggest you are guided by the market.

0.5pt win Specific Gravity 6/1

The other race of interest on the Cork card, is the handicap hurdle at 2:35…

There is a possibility that Inis Meain could just prove different class.

Fit form the flat and well suited by mud, it wouldn’t have taken much more in the price to tempt me.

However 4/1 is tight enough in a race that contains quite a few unexposed ones.

A strong mention, non the less…

Fontwell

There are at least two race of interest at the Sussex track.

The first is the Southern National and I was really optimistic that I would be able to find one in this.

However a bit like a few of these chases recently, I was able to find 4 or 5 that I felt had a big chance - and the odds weren’t there to encourage me to side with any one in particular…

The 3 I like most are Boyfromnowhere, Ballypatrick and Gorgehouse Lliege.

However, I could also argue a case for Amigo and Financial Climate.

Worse still, Viking Blond and Adrenalin Flight have bits of form that would make them very dangerous – which just leaves Incentivise (the favourite !) and Seven Woods who I’m not that keen on !

If forced to name the most likely winner, I would go with Boyfromnowhere – but I see minimal margin in a best price of 9/2.

Finally, I was hoping for a slightly better price on Spirit D’Armor in the 2:25 race.

He’s been quite eye catching on 2 runs over hurdles since a long break – and now goes over fences off a reduced handicap mark.

I can see him running a very big race – but I have two issues..

Firstly, I think today’s 2m2f trip will be an absolute minimum for him. He may get away with it in the ground, but it would be a worry.

Secondly, I think top weight (and favourite) Knight of Pleasure, is likely to be a formidable rival…

I might still have taken a chance on Spirit if he had been a couple of points bigger – but at 5/1, I see little margin.

That said, he is still probably the strongest mention of the day.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 2:10 Little Jon 12/1

Cheltenham 3:15 Clondaw Warrior 11/2

Punchestown 3:20 Crowded Room 5/1

Cork 2:00 Specific Gravity 6/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:00 Derrintogether Bliss (S )

Cheltenham 1:35 The Govaness (S )

Cheltenham 3:50 Masterplan (S )

Fontwell 1:50 Boyfromnowhere (P )

Fontwell 2:25 Spirit D’Armor (P )

Punchestown 1:40 Shanahans Turn (P )

Punchestown 2:15 Hurricane Fly (P )

Cork 2:35 Inis Meain (P )

 

Top Picks

 

Cheltenham 2:40 Dodging Bullets