Review of the day

Moments after God’s Own had bolted up in the feature Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, I sent my wife a text, informing her that for the third successive day, the first tip of the day had won !

Her reply was simple: ‘why don’t you just tip one horse a day then ?!’

Genius !

Ofcourse , the pre-race portents hadn’t looked good.

A drift from a mid morning 7/1 – to an SP of 8/1 (12.5 on BF), suggested that the horse maybe needed the run – but he clearly didn’t.

In fact, I would actually suggest that he drift on God’s Own price suggested nothing…

Unbelievably, Cue Card was backed into 13/8 fav at the off (from 10/3 this morning) – despite being likely to need the run and racing over a trip at least half a mile too short.

Simple economics state that if one horse is backed like that, then the rest of the field are going to drift.

And that is one reason why market movements are so difficult to read…

I was actually sent a note by one of my subscribers on Sunday evening, suggesting a theory for plunge horses such as Cue Card (or in that particular case, Doctor Ric).

The subscriber (I’ll call him Rob – because that’s his name !) suggested that what was happening was that a horse was backed by someone (maybe connection inspired – maybe tipster inspired). That caused a movement in the market – which the ‘traders’ picked up on – and the whole thing just snowballed, as nobody wanted to miss out on what was clearly a sure fire winner !

Well, if his theory is right (and it sounded pretty plausible to me), the sheep got lucky on Sunday – but they weren’t so fortunate today.

Anyway, suffice to say that God’s Own won very comfortably from Balder Succes (I did say they were closely linked on form), with Cue Card as his chums, a long way back…
The new boys certainly gave the old guard a thorough thrashing.

The other tip of the day to run, was Ballybough Andy.

As with God’s Own, he was very weak in the betting (SP 12/1: BSP 18) – and whilst this time it might have been more down to the horse itself (and not the strength of the favourite), I’m not so sure it was particularly prophetic…

I thought Ballybough Andy ran a perfectly respectable race. He finished fourth – and simply wasn’t good enough to beat 3 of his rivals.

That was always a possibility – he was a value call (who subsequently became even greater value !).

I could almost as easily have put up the winner, Dream Deal. He was a 7/1 shot this morning – and drifted to 10/1 at the off, but that didn’t stop him coming home in front…

So, on Sunday, the two tips were both hammered in the betting and produced a winner and a pulled up; today the two tips drifted like barges and produced a winner and a fourth place.

Food for thought, if nothing else…

The mentions at Exeter didn’t do too well..

Hinterland apparently broke a blood vessel in the Halden Gold cup – but he had raced too freely and wasn’t going to be winning, regardless.

Carrig Mor was probably the best horse in the novice chase – but he made some shocking blunders and ultimately paid the price. There looks to be a danger with him, that he is not going to fulfil his potential.

Flaming Charm ran a reasonable race in the handicap chase – but probably needs to drop a few pounds; Whilst Back to Midnight did settle better in the last – but still hadn’t got a lot left at the end of the race. I was disappointed with him…

However, that was nothing compared to how disappointed I was with the 2 horses I was keen on at Fairyhouse.

Colla Pier went off a very well backed 7/2 shot – and actually went odds on in running jumping the fourth last hurdle ! At that point she was going like a train – and that was still the case approaching the second last (by which time she was 1.22 in running).
However she then went out like a light – and ultimately came home a very weary looking sixth.

The suggestion was that something wasn’t quite right – maybe the first time tongue tie, was a clue.

Foritsa was equally disappointing – but I think there was a valid reason.

Incredibly, he was backed into 9/4 fav at the off (shades of Cue Card !) – and seemed to be travelling nicely enough with 4 to go.

But again, he just didn’t get home.

However I think the reason for him struggling to get home, is a little more obvious.

He’d not run for over 200 days – and comes from a relatively small yard (who probably struggle to get him race fit at home).

Ofcourse, that doesn’t explain why he was so well backed – but Rob’s theory does…

It’s a fascinating game, isn’t it ?!?!

TVB.