Daily write-up - Nov 5th

Two NH meetings today, at Chepstow and Warwick…

I do love jump racing at Chepstow…

Obviously, it’s not Cheltenham – but it’s the next best thing IMO.

I will always associate the track with memories of the late, great Plein Pouvoir. I will never forget the day he powered through the mud to record a victory by half the straight, having been backed in from 12/1 to 7/2.

What a horse…

Anyway, to business...

I’ve just got the one tip today (I took my wife’s advice ) – at Chepstow !

I took a risk not issuing early, but the market has held up fine (which is nice).

I was optimistic that would be the case, when I looked at Betfair early and the horse was a bigger price there than it was with the bookies.

But as the past few days have shown, you never know !

In addition to the tip, I’ve also got some thoughts on a few of the other races – plus a Top Pick from Warwick.

Here are todays thoughts…

Chepstow

3:50

I guess that Herecomesthehollow is quite a speculative pick in this – but I’m actually quite keen on him…

That is part down to the horse himself – and part down to the opposition.

The reason it has to be considered speculative, is because he has only run once over fences – and he finished a pretty distant fifth that day.

That was on his seasonal debut at Wincanton, just under 3 weeks ago – but the first thing of interest with him, is how strong he was in the market that day…

He was sent off a well backed 3/1 second favourite – despite the fact he was making his fencing and seasonal debut.
The suggestion is that someone thought he was capable of defying a mark of just 95…

And I can understand why that would be: a big, strong horse, he certainly looks more like a chaser than a hurdler.

As it turned out, he ran OK in the race – but Wincantons quick flat track and good ground, were never likely to play to his strengths.

He made a mistake at the cross fence and was fighting a losing battle from there on in…

The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds for that run – which is nice.
Nigel Twiston Davies has also enlisted the services of a 10lb claimer – which will help further.

However, the reason I think Herecomesthehollow will run better today, is down mainly to the track and the ground.

He’s a NH bred horse: his breeding says he will appreciate a proper test on winter ground – and that is what it looked like to me at Wincanton.

I would be hopeful that Jamie Bargey can get him into a rhythm – and that he just powers away from some pretty limited rivals up the straight (a little bit like Plein Pouvoir once did).
That’s the theory, any how !

0.5pt win Herecomesthehollow 8/1 BF,SB (15/2 Sky, 7/1 Gen)

In the opening novice hurdle, I quite like the look of the Tom George trained Truckers Steel.

He was a beaten favourite in a similar race here, early in October- but looked that day as is the race would bring him on.

There’s a lot of guesswork involved – but at 14/1, he might be worth a tiny interest.

In the 1:10 race, I am drawn to Paskalis, on his debut for Henry Daly.

He is extremely well bred (jumping wise) and whilst he showed nothing in his one bumper run for Emma Lavelle, I might be inclined to give him a second chance, now he is with a new trainer.

His current price is quite tight – but if he were to drift nearer the off, I would be tempted.

Tom George also saddles the form pick, Sir Valentino in the 2:10 – but my eye is drawn to the Robert Walford trained Tribulation…

As dark ones goes, this one is pitch black – but that only adds to the interest !

He performed very nicely on he is racecourse debut (at this track and on heavy) in a novice hurdle event at this meeting last year – before a couple of low key runs (to get a handicap mark).

He is now sent over fences on his handicap debut – which is a very interesting ploy.

Ofcourse, he could easily need the run – but I will be watching him during the race - and the market before hand, very closely indeed…

Warwick

Warwick stage quite an interesting card – but very much one to watch rather than bet on…

However, there is one exception to that statement.

I really do fancy the chances of The Ould Lad in the handicap chase at 1:30.

He’s a horse that I’ve had my eye on for quite a while now – and it strikes me as hugely significant that Paddy Brennan has presumably turned down at least 2 decent rides at Chepstow, so that he can partner this one.

I wouldn’t have wanted much more in the price to make him a tip – but 11/4 is shorter than I like to tip at.
That doesn’t stop him form being a Top Pick tho – so that is what he shall be !

Here’s to a great day ahead – hopefully it will go with a bang 

TVB.

Tips

Early

None

Late

Chepstow 3:50 Herecomesthehollow 0.5pt win 8/1

Mentions

Chepstow 1:10 Truckers Steel (S )

Chepstow 1:40 Paskalis (S )

Chepstow 2:10 Tribulation (S )

Top Picks

Warwick 1:30 The Ould Lad