Daily write-up - Nov 30th

They race this afternoon at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

As is so often the case on a Sunday, the best racing – and by some margin – is being staged in Ireland.

The Fairyhouse card features 3 grade 1 events – though in truth, 2 of them have slightly disappointing fields. 

Certainly the late defection of leading lady, Annie Power, has robbed the card of it’s main attraction. Hopefully the late injury she picked up, proves to be nothing serious.

In fairness, the cards at both Leicester and Carlisle are both of some interest – though once again, betting into the very weak markets early, is fraught with danger.

I’ve ended up with two tips on the day – and a few interesting mentions.

Here are my thoughts…

Fairyhouse

2:05

The field for the Hatton Grace hurdle is pretty disappointing – though at least it has the excuse that its main player, Annie Power, was a late defector.

With a first prize of 50,000 euro, I suspect a few more trainers (including those in the UK) had not run shy of taking on the super mare..

Willie Mullins still has the favourite for the race in the shape of Zaidpour – but he hardly sets a demanding standard at grade 1 level.

Little King Robin might be able to get away from him – but she’s had a lot of hard recent races and they will catch up with her very soon.

The trip, the ground and the fact it’s his seasonal debut, all make Jetson an unlikely winner – which leaves the second season novices, Lieutenant Colonel and King of the Picts as the ones to concentrate on.

There probably isn’t a lot between the 2 of them (which is what official ratings suggest), so how one is 4/1 and the other is 66/1, is beyond me…

King of the Picts has admittedly finished well behind Little King Robin on his 2 runs this season – but he was likely to need the first of those and he was never really put into the race behind Hurricane Fly and Jezki, last time out.

Todays slightly quicker ground should suit him better –and the step up to 2m4f is an interesting move.

Certainly there will be worse plays than a small EW bet on him at a huge price.

0.125pt EW King of the Picts 66/1

2:35

Following a dozen unsuccessful runs over hurdles, Painted Lady seemed to have established herself as a fairly limited animal.

Her final run over hurdles in October, saw her finishing fourth in a handicap off a mark of 107. That run was consistent with a number of her earlier runs in maiden hurdles and suggested that was roughly the extent of her ability.

It was therefore a little surprising, when she completely took apart a mare beginners chase, over todays course at distance, on her first attempt over the larger obstacles, on her very next run…

Occasionally these things happen – a horse will improve dramatically for a change of discipline, simply because they are very good at jumping fences.

And that seemed to be the case with Painted Lady.

She attempted follow up that win in a better contest at Cork, just a week later. Again she jumped beautifully – until she hit the fifth last fence.

Whether it was that mistake, the quality of the opposition (which was much better than she meets today) or the fact she was having her fourth race in under a month, I don’t know – but for whatever reason, she was quickly beaten and eased right off…

Nearly 6 weeks have now passed since that last run – so Painted Lady will arrive today a relatively fresh horse. She is also back tackling her own sex – and animals of lesser ability than she met last time.

I think this all boils down to whether she can repeat the level of form she showed when wining on her chasing debut.

Unfortunately that’s not guaranteed because she is a mare with a hint of temperament – and she probably needs to get things her own way !

Still, if she can repeat that form, then against the opposition she meets today, I think she should go very close indeed.

Fingers crossed that’s how things work out !!

0.5pt win Painted Lady 14/1

Earlier on the card, there is a lot of guesswork involved in trying to figure out the Royal Bond novice hurdle.

Willie Mullins saddles the first and second favourite - Allez Colombiers and Nicholas Canyon - but they can only muster one previous run over hurdles between them !

Ofcourse, the fact that Mullins has chosen them to represent him in this grade 1 event speaks volumes in itself – but you won’t get rich backing either one.

As an alternative, I might be tempted by the Dermot Weld trained Tandem.
He was as talented as Nicholas Canyon on the level – and also has a couple of hurdle runs under his belt.

The Drinmore novice chase at 2:05, is by far and away the most interesting of the 3 grade 1s on the card.

The 3 horses at the head of the market: The Tullow Tank, Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold, have all got huge potential – and it will be a little surprising if the winner comes from outside of them.

That said, it’s a novice chase, so anything is possible !
Whilst he probably isn’t good enough to win, the might be some value in backing Blacklough to be placed…

He was a progressive handicap hurdler last season, with an official rating of 135.

He performed to that rating in a number of big handicaps – and the suggestion was always that he would make a better chaser than hurdler.

Successful on his chasing debut at Listowel, he then took an early fall on his next outing in a grade 3 event at Tipperary.

The fourth favourite for todays race, Cause of Causes, is an exposed 145 rated chaser – I would expect Blacklough to be able to reach that level.

Cause of Causes is 12/1 to win todays race, Blacklough is a similar price to be placed.

I rest my case !

The other race I wanted to get involved in on the Fairyhouse card, was the long distance chase at 3:10.

The trouble is, there were at least 3 horses I was interested in…

The favourite, Embracing Chance, was a very comfortable winner last time out. He hacked all over Frederici that day – and that one came out and won comfortably last Thursday. The 9lb rise that Embracing Change incurred for his win, will probably not stop him today.

However, the improved quality of the opposition might…

The 2 others I was interested in were Jupitor, who won at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting last April; and Vasco De Mee, who ran third in the Troytown chase, last Sunday.

Those races are much hotter than the one Embracing Change won.

Now that’s not to say that Embracing Change can’t follow up today – just that he has more of a job on his hands.

Furthermore, this is not just a 3 horse race. The likes of Seefood, Rogue Angel and Sword Fish could all be given a chance.

In the circumstances then, just a race to watch – though if forced to play, I would opt for Jupitor.. 

Leicester

It didn’t take me long to realise that my slim hope that Stella Notion might go under the radar in the first, wasn’t going to happen !

His hurdle for with Un Ace from last year suggest that he might have 20lb in hand of his current rating – and he also has huge scope for improvement.

Maybe not surprisingly the initial 2/1 was quickly hoovered up – and whilst you couldn’t possibly play on a horse at 5/4 making its seasonal and chasing debut – I couldn’t oppose him either..

The Ould Lad represents the same connections in the 1:45 – and he looks the one to beat. However, I think that top weight Midnight Cataria might represent a bit of value in the race.

She was still travelling nicely on her chasing debut at Worcester when she fell at the third last.

If that’s not had any lasting effect, I think she will run a big race this afternoon.

The 2:15 race looks a 2 horse contest between John Louis and Batavir.

In reality it will probably end up a one horse race – depending on how good Batavir is.

He might be different class – or he might not be. The market will doubtless guide – but as things stand, I would play safe and opt for John Louis.

In the 2:50 race, I think that Lord Fox is potentially the most interesting horse running at the meeting.

He was successful over course and distance last February – which in the context of this race, is quite interesting itself (the entire field can only muster 5 wins between them !) but it’s when you look at the form of that race more closely, you see how interesting it really is…
That day, he beat Me and Ben by a neck - that one is now rated 33lb higher;
12 lengths back in third was Possibly Flora, who is now rated 21lb higher;

a further 27 lengths back in fourth was No Through Road, he is now rated 31lb higher;

in fifth was Smart Catch he is now 11lb higher;

Riddlestown in seventh is 11lb higher...
In short, it was a ridiculously competitive race, for the grade...
Lord Fox himself, is 8lb higher today – however, that in itself, wouldn’t stop him.

Furthermore, he should get an uncontested lead , which could help him enormously.
The main issue is that he has no previous form when returning from a break. That said, he burst a blood vessel back in April – and horses who do that tend to run
their best races fresh...
In short, if connections want to, he can probably hack up.
Ofcourse second guessing their game is a completely different matter - but if the money does come, I'll be following it !!

Carlisle

The Carlisle card kicks off with a really interesting handicap chase at 12:20.
Rockawango is favourite to follow up his recent win at Kelso – and whilst he might be able to do it, I can resist him off a mark 7lb higher and at just 7/2.

That said, I’m not sure what I’d pick to beat him.
There are lots of familiar faces from last season running – so I’ll probably just watch it and see how things pan out…

In the novice chase at 1:55, Ifandbutwhynot is again the one that interests me.

He was favourite on his chasing debut over this course, but weakened out of contention late on.
In fairness, that was a hot race – and dropping him back half a mile in trip, is interesting.

I’ve little doubt he could win a race such as this – the question is whether connections will want to (or whether they would rather work on his handicap mark).

The market may tell us – but it’s the sort of race that the market could also get wrong…

If he doesn’t put his best foot forward, then Yorkist is probably the one who will benefit – though I could also see Lord Wishes running a big race, at a price.

Finally, Alpha Victor is of some interest in the distance chase at 3:00.

He finished second in last seasons Midland Grand National off todays mark – and a nice recent run over today course should have blown away the cobwebs.

It’s going to be a balancing act for connections however.

Apparently he’s being targeted at the Welsh Grand National.

His current handicap mark will probably just about get him in to the race – but only just.

A win today will almost guarantee him his place – but it will get him a few extra pounds and they wouldn’t want him to have too hard a race.

A poor run today might see him miss the cut.
In short, there’s a bit too much second guessing (and I might be over thinking it all anyway !).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Fairyhouse 2:35 Painted Lady 14/1

 

Late

 

Fairyhouse 1:30 King of the Picts 66/1

 

Mentions

 

Fairyhouse 1:00 Tandem (S )

Fairyhouse 2:05 Blacklough (O )

Fairyhouse 3:10 Jupitor (O )

Leicester 12:40 Stella Notion (P )

Leicester 1:45 Midnight Cataria (C )

Leicester 2:15 John Louis (P )

Leicester 2:50 Lord Fox (S )

Carlisle 12:20 Rockawango (P )

Carlisle 1:55 Ifandbutwhynot (C )

Carlisle 3:00 Alpha Victor (C )

Top Picks

 

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