Sunday 30 November 2014

Review of the day

It’s always difficult to know what to write on a day like today – one that promised so much, but delivered nothing…

And yet, I somehow feel that it was mainly a case of things just not quite going our way, rather than some fundamental issue…

Working through the tips, starting with Son of Suzie at Ascot:

My reason for backing him in the race was because I felt he (and Astigos) represented some value in a winnable race – and I was right…
Both were well backed (Son of Suzie into 4/1 from 6/1 – and Astigos into 7/1 from 10/1) and all things being equal, either could quite easily have won.

However, Son of Suzie put in a truly shocking round of jumping – and Astiogos wasn’t a lot better.
Despite that, Astigos was beaten less that a length at the line, as Polisky gave away the race in the shadow of the post, to Big Hands Harry, who himself had veered left at just about every obstacle.

The race was there to be won – it was just a shame that neither of our horses were able to take advantage of that fact.

Next it was Morito Du Berlais, who was backed as if defeat was out of the question at Haydock – in to 9/4 from 4/1 early.
However, he was unlucky to bump into one in the shape of On Tour.
The market wasn’t keen on him, but it didn’t stop him tanking his way through the race. It’s not often you see a horse still pulling for its head approaching the last in a valuable handicap hurdle. I suspect On Tour could be an extremely good horse…

Next it was Somersby – and probably the toughest result of the day to take…
As you no doubt gathered, I was pretty keen on him – but he managed to bump into Al Ferof on a serious going day.
Now, these things happen, but I do feel as if I was a little misled by the comments of Paul Nicholls in his Betfair column, concerning Al Ferof.

This is what he said:
‘I have been training him (Al Ferof) with a view to peaking at Kempton next month, not today, so I have left a fair bit to work on - and he didn't come back in until the second week of September, which is pretty late -  and he does have to give these 4lb, too. And Wishfull Thinking and Somersby are actually rated higher than him, anyway.
Ideally he wants better ground as well, so defeat here against race-fit rivals wouldn't be the end of the world, by any means, as he will definitely need it. But hopefully he can go to Kempton on the back of a good performance.’

Now, I’ve been playing this game long enough to know that you can take most of what trainers put in the public domain with a pinch of salt – but either Nicholls was lying, or Al Ferof is Arkle re-incarnated (and he’s not !).

And funnily enough – despite those comments, the market wasn’t taken in…
3/1 early, Al Ferof was sent off a well backed 5/2 favourite. If he did indeed need the run as much as Nicholls suggested, he must be a certainty for Kempton !

Next it was the Betfair chase, where we had Harry Topper and Double Ross running for us – but again with no joy.
Harry Topper raced prominently but was left behind when the pace quickened and finished tailed off: whilst Double Ross was settled in behind but couldn’t muster a challenge when it mattered.
They were both speculative picks, so I’ve no real issue – though I did expect Double Ross to run better than he did.

The final tip of the day to run was Bellenos and he was another than I was very keen on.
However, being a hold up horse on a day like today seemed to be a bad thing.
His jockey switched him from the inside to the outside early, presumably in search of better ground. And then back to the inside - presumably so he had less distance to travel – but neither tactic made any difference.

Meanwhile, Croco Bay, a seemingly exposed chaser, romped home in a manner that made it look as it he wouldn’t have been out of place in the Amlin chase !

Where that run came from, I have absolutely no idea – yet, amazingly, the market anticipated it, with him backed in from 16/1 this morning, to 8/1 at the off.
My feeling is that the form is dubious to say the least – though the run of Lancetto in second, was quite eye–catching.

So far as the mentions were concerned, then No Duffer ran a reasonable race to finish third; Sybarite was tailed off in the brush hurdle final – and Midnight Appeal managed another third placing in the last at Haydock.

Amusingly (sic), the race was won by According to Trev. We were on him last time out when he took a fall at the very first fence in the Bader Ales chase at Wincanton.

Timing – and a bit of luck – count for quite a lot in this game…

TVB.

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