Daily write-up - Nov 20th

They race over the jumps today, at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Chepstow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

I’ve got to be honest, it’s getting harder and harder to tip, early morning, in these low grade mid-week races…

There are three issues:

Firstly, the markets are extremely tight. The bookmakers now price up most races the evening before – and with quite a tight book (very little over-round). They then accept small bets on the horses they have over-priced – and use this ‘intelligence’ to adjust their books.

Consequently, by the morning, they have a much more accurate book – and have re-instated a 10% over-round. In reality this is closer to 20% as a number of the best prices are often only available with some of the less reputable bookmakers.

I tend to operate with an edge of between 20 and 30% - so this practise alone, all but eliminates my edge…

Secondly, the prices are still so sensitive in the morning, that if I do tip a horse, it will quickly collapse, meaning that a good number of you aren’t be able to get on at the advised price.

This will either mean you have to take under the odds (again, reducing my edge) – or miss the tip.

Thirdly, so often in these low grade races, connections have decided in advance whether or not their horse is a ‘player’ in the race.

This worked to our advantage on day 2 of the season, with Doctor Ric – but I think it counted against us on Tuesday, with Crazy Jack.

Without this knowledge, we are effectively playing with a marked deck of cards – and us not understanding the markings.

Like I say, very difficult.

Worse still, I don’t think there are any easy answers…

If I could tip on first show – that would work – but very few of you would get on – and those that did would find their accounts getting closed extremely quickly.

I could tip late – and I do that, to an extent, with the late tips. The issue however, is that we are generally getting on drifters – and that is a dangerous game to play.

The third option is not to tip – and that is one I can see myself doing more and more often…

I’ll still produce the write-ups – and mention the horses I have been interested in – and why I’ve not tipped them.

But ultimately, I think each of you will need to monitor the market and decide whether or not to get involved, on a case by case basis…

Anyway, enough of the ‘doom and gloom’ – and on to the thoughts for today (which you can choose either to act on – or dismiss – as you see fit !).

Market Rasen

If I’d been able to tip yesterday evening, I would have been prepared to put up quite a few at Market Rasen.

Unfortunately, by this morning, most of the prices have gone – so we are just left with a number of mentions…

In the novice handicap chase at 1:00, I was interested in Srtraidnahana and Shantou Magic. They ran against each other at Carlisle at the beginning of the month, when Srtraidnahana finished third and Shantou Magic fell, when still in contention at the fifth last fence.

They meeting on identical terms today and it’s not an easy call…
Shantou Magic was favourite for the Carlisle race and hadn’t been asked a serious question when he fell. However Straidnahana lost little in defeat that day.
The market doesn’t help a great deal either – but I just feel that Srtraidnahana is the more likely to run to form today. Shantou Magic has top weight and connections will want him to get round safely.

I could have been interested in Srtraidnahana at around 9/2. However, Viva Steve is a solid enough favourite – and the other 3 in the race can’t be completely dismissed.

There is little margin in a price of 7/2.

For some unfathomable reason, Richmond was priced up at 11/4 on the early shows last night, in the 1:30 race.

There are only 4 runners in the race – and for all I love him, Dashing George is unlikely to be winning this afternoon.

I honestly felt Richmond should have been favourite – and low and behold, come this morning, he was !

The trouble is, I reckon the price of 7/4 that is now available, is just about right (I would make him a 6/4 shot).

And whilst I think he will win, I’m not overly keen on taking 7/4 about a horse that’s been off the track for almost a year and has to jump round 14 fences.

At an opening 4/1, Home Run was the one that interested me in the 2:05 race – but at 5/2, the value has once again, vanished…

In fairness, there are a few risks associated with him, whatever the price – so he was very much a ‘value’ pick.

The trouble is, I think the market looks about right now – so it’s no longer a race I could be interested in.

Dunlough Bay completes the set of horse that I was interested in last night – but am no longer this morning.

He is undoubtedly handicapped to win a race such as this – and the application of blinkers and reversion to hurdles are both probably positive moves.

He was 7/2 last night – which was tight, but just about acceptable. This morning, he is 5/2, which leaves no margin for error.

I still make him the most likely winner – but there are others in the race (most notably Brass Monkey) who could become interesting, if their price drifted sufficiently…

Of the 4 mentioned above, then Richmond is the one I fancy most, followed by Dunlough Bay.
The price corrections of both is frustrating – but understandable - and it probably won’t stop either from winning.

Chepstow

Over at Chepstow, we have a different situation….

There are two races of interest – and the two horses I’m interested in are both drifting.

In the 1:10 race, I think Sunshine Buddy is potentially interesting…

She won last time out, over todays course and distance and got a 7lh rise for that win.
However, the booking of Mikey Ennis will off-set that rise.

The issue is that I feel she benefited from the way the race was run last time out. There was a lot of pace on – and it fell apart late, with her picking up the pieces.

Also it was her first run for nearly a year, so you couldn’t be sure which way she will have gone since.

On the flip side, this looks a pretty poor race – and at 11/2 she is now definitely an attractive price.

She can be a mention today – and I’ll use her as an example for similar cases in the future…

In the 1:40 race, Gunna be a Devil, is another one who now looks a bit over-priced…

He’s a fragile sort and has been off the track for 200+ days. However, he’s won on the back of similar absences in the past – and so I suspect if connections want, he could be straight enough today.
The problem is, there are a number of ‘possible’ horses in the race.

Tarabella is very well handicapped - but might not be so good over fences and has a long absence to overcome; Smiles of Miles has more potential than most of the field – and is blinkered for the first time – though his record to date, makes him opposable.

In fact, a case of sorts could be made for pretty much every runner in the field – so whilst I quite like the chance of Gunna be a Devil, it would always be difficult to be adamant about them.

Wincanton

I was quite keen to take on The Brock Again in the handicap  hurdle at 2:25 – but he has now been declared a non runner.

I actually think this race is ripe for a shock outcome – as non of those at the top of the market look solid.

Certainly there appears to be very little support for the ex French Voix D’eau on his debut for Harry Fry.

If he was fancied by connections, I could see him going off very short – but that appears not to be the case.

By a process of elimination, Hadazan seems to be the one to beat – but he hardly sets a demanding standard.
Maybe seasonal debutante Hold the Bucks can create a shock from 6lb out of the weights. Certainly at 20/1 in a place, it is tempted to take a risk in a race that looks wide open.

Benefique Royale is the one that interested me in the 3:00 race.

She was backed last night – but seems to be drifting this morning.
She is well enough handicapped – but presumably that caused the support yesterday.

In the circumstances - and in what looks a tight enough race, I am happy to just watch her run.

The final one I want to mention on the Wincanton card, is Follow the Tracks.

He runs in the last race on the card – and has absolutely no form and has been of the tack for over a year.

Why then, I ask myself, is 7lb claimer Mikey Ennis making the journey from Chepstow (where he rides Sunshine Buddy in the 1:10), to ride her…

Unfortunately, I have no idea - but if she starts getting backed , I’ll be tempted to follow the cash !

Thurles

Just the one race of interest at Thurles  - the handicap hurdle at 3:05.

The horse I watt to keep an eye on in this race, is Saddlers luck, who has his second run for Jim Culloty.

His first was at Navan a couple of weeks ago – but he was not ridden with any intention of winning (or even placing).

I guess it might be the same today – but he’s handicapped to go close – and the booking of Ger Fox (who unbelievably gets 4lb from a number of  jockeys, much inferior to him) catches the eye.

He’s a front runner – so a pre-race back and in-running lay, will probably give you a free bet, if connections are still working on his handicap mark…

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do get involved !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Market Rasen 1:00 Straidnahana (P )

Market Rasen 1:30 Richmond (P )

Market Rasen 2:05 Home Run (P )

Market Rasen 2:40 Dunlough Bay (P )

Chepstow 1:10 Sunshine Buddy (C )

Chepstow 1:40 Gunna be a Devil (O )

Wincanton 2:25 Hold the Bucks (S )

Wincanton 3:00 Benefique Royale (O )

Wincanton 4:00 Follow the Tracks (S )

Thurles 3:05 Saddlers Luck (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None