Daily write-up- Nov 15th

Day 2 of the Cheltenham open meeting.

They also race at Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK – and Punchestown in Ireland.

What a nightmare !

As I hopefully managed to let you all know last night, my internet connection went down, just as the runners were going to post for the first race yesterday afternoon – and it only returned at 8:45 this morning…

As a consequence, I was effectively ‘blind’ for a period when I should have been watching races and crazily studying form.

It’s ridiculous how much we (I !) rely on the internet – but without it, I was completely lost.

I was able to use my phone to catch up on the results and send you all an email – but as for form studying etc., forget it.

I even had to go outside to send the emails, as the mobile signal in my house was too weak – now there’s commitment for you !

Anyway, as a result, I was so far behind this morning, that tipping effectively became impossible.

I am very routine driven with the form study, and on big days like today, that routine is absolutely key.

I start just after lunchtime the day before (so just about when I lost connection !) and my thoughts are built up, layer on layer, as different pieces of information become available.

I sleep on my thoughts over night – do and quick check in the morning – and then issue the tips.

Obviously that entire routine has been blown apart over the past 24 hours.

There were a few horses I was particularly interested in today (mainly driven by my alerts) – but simply, I’ve not had the time to check them out properly - and the space to reflect on my conclusions.

Consequently, I just don’t think I can tip.

I’ll run through a few races for you. I’ve not got time to do them all – so apologies for that.

Hopefully things will be back to normal tomorrow – when I’ll look to issue tips from 8:30 (a little earlier than normal for a Sunday – as it’s the open meeting).

Here are my brief thoughts on the day…

Cheltenham

1:15

A fascinating novice chase, where I was initially drawn to Creepy…

He put in a flawless round of jumping on his debut over the big obstacles at Chepstow, last month. He also won over hurdles at this meeting 12 months ago.

However, the opposition he met at Chepstow, was much weaker than his rivals today – and he does seem to show his best form on good ground.

At 6/1, he possibly does represents a bit of value – but he’s no good thing..

I’d be happy to take on favourite Kings Palace, at even money.

He’s making his fencing debut today and whilst he was probably just about the best of these over hurdles – and receives weight form them all – I suspect his jumping will have to be pretty slick if he is to prevail.

Sausolito Sunrise is probably the benchmark for the race. There is no reason why he won’t run well, so when looking for the winner, you have to find a horse capable of beating him.

The other one worthy of consideration, is Knock House.
A decent hurdler, he made an impressive chasing debut at Fakenham.

Again, at 8/1, he might represent a bit of value.

Ultimately, it was just a bit too tough to call. I think both Creepy and Knock House have better chances than their odds imply – but Sausalito Sunrise sets a fair standard – and Kings Palace could be anything.

1:50

This really is a race I could have spent hours pouring over – if I’d had hours to spare !

My initial feeling was that Cape Tribulation looked very well handicapped – and over a course he likes and with a prep run on the flat under his belt, he was worth a play.

I wouldn’t go back on that - but the more I looked a the race, the more dangers I found…

Sainte Are, on his debut for Tom George, is another very well handicapped horse – and if Gevrey Chambertin can get his jumping together, he should just about win this.

Those two were the first dangers I found !

Closer inspection however, revealed a whole raft of third level dangers…

There are reasons for thinking that The Package, Chicago Grey, Golden Chieftain, Saffron De Cotte and Master Neo could all run huge races – so that is 8 on the short list, so far…!
When you consider the remaining 6 include the first 2 in the betting (The Druids Nephew and Sam Winner), plus horse debuting for Venetia and another representing the high flying Hobbs/Johnson combination, you see how tricky things are getting.

In Summary, I felt that Restless Harry and Pigeon Isalnd probably wouldn’t win – but I wouldn’t want to lay them, all the same !

Again, it was ultimately just too much to do in the time available.

If I have a bet in the race (and I probably will), it is likely to be on Cape Tribulation, with savers on Sainte Are, Gevrey and Golden Chieftain.

2:30

About 3 weeks ago, I previewed the Paddy Power Gold cup for the ante-post blog…

I spent a lot of time on the race and came to the conclusion that Buywise was the most likely winner (all things being equal).

Well, roll on 3 weeks – and I’m now even more convinced that Buywise is the most likely winner.

3 of the horse I identified as potential serious dangers (Uxizandre, Taquin De Seuil and Double Ross), are missing from the gig. Better still, the 2 potential dangers that remain (Johns Sprit and Present View) won’t be as well suited by the recent rain, as Buywise will…

Ofcourse, a few new dangers have entered the fray, in the shape of Indian Castle Easter Meteor and Shanpallas – but I don’t fear them as much as I feared the likes of Uxizandre.

I guess I have 2 nagging doubts in my mind:

Firstly all the noises Evan Williams made about the horse possibly not running because he wasn’t fully fit. Now, in my heart, I think it was just a smoke screen. Williams is a man who managed to get a horse fit enough to run third in the Grand National on its seasonal debut. There is no better target trainer in the game. I suspect he was just putting himself in a no lose situation (and holding the price up !) – but all the same.

Secondly, the horse can clout the odd fence. He did so at the festival last year - in fact, that’s why he didn’t win. With a bit of luck, the low sun will work in our favour today, as the more obstacles it takes out he better ! (though it will also work in the favour of Oscar Whiskey).

Ultimately however, I think Buywise will take the world of beating.

It’s interesting that Tom Segal has tipped his stablemate, King Massini – and it might be worth saving your stake on him.

However, all things equal, and granted a clear round, there is little doubt in my mind that Buywise is the one to beat this afternoon…

0.5pt win Buywise 7/1

3:00

Whilst I can see the argument for Katkeau, I’m a little perplexed as to why Big Easy can be backed at 7/1…

A very game winner of the Cesarewich on the flat in October, he is back over hurdles today running off the same mark from which he was successful over this course, in the spring of last year.

I know he isn’t a huge fan of soft ground – so maybe that’s what’s putting people off.
I’ve also not had chance to properly check out all of his opponents.

All the same, he would rate quite a strong mention at the current price.

I’ve had no more than a glance at the 3 other races on the Cheltenham card – and nothing caught my eye.

In fact, so far as the first race is concerned, I think it would be best tackled with a lucky pin ! 

Uttoxeter

A couple of races of interest at the Staffordshire track…

It is intriguing that Tony Martin brings Heathfield over for the 1:40 race – particularly as the horse is on my list of eye catches from his last run, at Killarney, back in May…

However, he faces a couple of interesting rivals in the shape of Union Jack D’Ycy and Fredo.

The former is well handicapped and will appreciate the heavy ground: whilst the latter ran well on its seasonal debut at Wetherby.

It’s a shame they are all competing in the same race – and there is also money for Achimota.

At the current odds (9/2), I’d side with Union Jack D’Ycy – but I think it has to be a watching race…

Henry King went very close to winning the 2:50 race last season - and I suspect he can put that right this time.

Always a horse best fresh, a shocking blunder at the last cost him victory 12 months ago. He is only 4lb higher in the weights today and is likely to take a bit of catching.

I’ve not had time to work thought his rivals – but I wouldn’t be overly fearful of favourite Pure Science, so suspect Henry could be a fair bet.

Wetherby

The meeting is apparently in some doubt because of fog, but if it goes ahead, I think there could be one horse worth supporting, in the 12:55 race…

Dark Dune ran at the last Wetherby meeting in a very decent novice handicap chase.

He was still going very nicely when a bad blunder at the final fence in the back straight effectively ended his chances.

He still ran on well at the finish however, suggesting that without the mistake he might have gone close.

Out of handicap company toddy, he takes on a few rivals who could be a bit better than him. However, he could be a it better himself, than his current rating implies…

Yorkist looks the main danger – but on his chasing debut and without his normal hood, I’d be prepared to take him on.
Again, quite a strong mention…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 2:30 Buywise 7/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:15 Knock House (O )

Cheltenham 1:15 Creep (C )

Cheltenham 1:50 Cape Tribulation (O )

Cheltenham 3:00 Big Easy (O )

Uttoxeter 1:40 Union Jack D’Ycy (O )

Uttoxeter 2:50 Henry King (P )

Wetherby 12:55 Dan Dune (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None