Daily write-up - Nov 28th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Newbury, Doncaster and Musselburgh.

The opening day of the Hennessy meeting may have been a bit disappointing - but day 2 is much better…

7 interesting races – and a good deal of competition.

There is also a reasonable meeting taking place at Doncaster, so I spent very little time on the Musselburgh card (though my quick look suggested it wasn’t particularly inspiring).

I’ve ended up with 2 tips on the day – one of them, particularly strong.

I also feel there are a few interesting mentions, which will hopefully be worth paying attention to.

Here is the logic for the tips – and my other thoughts on the day.

Newbury

12:55

If you cast your mind back to Monday, you will doubtless recall that I tipped Lord Landen at Kempton.

However, if you are able to cast your mind back just a little further, when I tipped him in the morning, it was as a saver…

The horse I really wanted to tip in that race, was Visions Des Champs.

Unfortunately, Vision Des Champs was withdrawn from the race before I was able to tip him. The official reason was the state of the ground – but as it must be at least as soft at Newbury today, that doesn’t make a lot of sense.

He also has soft ground form in his native France - and didn’t appear particularly phased by it, on his last run at Kempton, so I’m a little suspicious of the reason…

I guess it has to be a slight doubt – but I think it is factored into the price.

Now whilst Vision Des Champs does have form in the book that makes him look quite interesting today (he’s dropped 20lb since his UK debut in March) – I’m not tipping him because of what is in the form book.

I’m tipping him because of what I saw last time he ran…

That was in a 2m4f race at Kempton, where he ultimately finished well beaten, behind the favourite for today’s race, Comeonginger…

If you get chance to watch that race, you really should.
Visions Des Champs pulled for his head, from the moment the tape went up – and was still pulling after a circuit had been completed.

It speaks volumes for his ability that he was still competitive with Comeonginger, entering the home straight.
Ultimately, the combination of him puling; it being his first run for 6 months, the 2m4f trip and the soft ground, took it’s toll – and he ended up beaten 17 lengths. However he has been dropped 2lb for that run and gets to meet the winner on 7lb better terms – plus a further 8lb for his jockey allowance.

Conventionally, this shouldn’t be enough to turn around the form – but I suspect Vision Des Champs could beat Comeonginger even if the weights were as last time.

The other thing that really struck me about Vision Des Champs, was how he attacked his fences. For those of you old enough to remember, he reminded me of First Gold, when he won the King George.

Obviously there is a risk when you jump like that - but if you are good enough to get away with it, it can save you lengths.

My biggest concern with Vision Des Champs, is the stable he comes from !

Gary Moore is a particularly shrewd operator – and if his money is down, the horse is likely to perform.

That’s why I was so cautious with issuing the tip this morning – simply I didn’t want to stop him backing it, because we had crushed the price  (assuming he wants to !).

So far as dangers in the race are concerned, I would nominate Barenger as the main one – but simply, if Vision Des Champs is as good as I think he is, then provided he jumps round OK, I‘ll be surprised if he doesn’t win.

Here’s hoping my judgement is right !

0.75pt win Vision Des Champs 9/1

1:30

I guess Unique De Cotte should take the beating in this on the back of his win at the Cheltenham Open meeting.

However, that was his first run for 18 months –and he had a hard race – so there must be a possibility that he will ‘bounce’ today…

If he doesn’t then he will probably win – but even in that scenario, I think it is worth a tiny risk on Bally Legend, to at least place…

We were actually on Bally Legend last time out when he ran in a chase at Kempton.

He ran OK that day, but seemed to find the 2m4f trip on the short side.

It would appear that nowadays he needs 3 miles – which is the trip he’s got today.

He’s also back over hurdles today. I’ve got an open mind about that - he has decent enough form over hurdles and is rated 5lb lower over the smaller obstacles.

In fact he gets to run off a mark of 135 today – which is 3lb lower than the mark he won class 1 Betbright chase from, last February…

In short, at a huge price- and with plenty of things in his favour, I thought he was worth a very small risk.

0.125pt EW Bally Legend 40/1

A decent field lines up for the novice chase at 2:05 – but I would expect Saphir Du Rue to prove different class to the opposition, provided he is fit enough to do himself justice and jumps round OK…

Rated 165 over hurdles - and with the physique to do even better over fences, he could be top class.

His 3 main rivals are all potentially useful, but I really don’t think any of them possess the quality he does.

The cynic in me, thinks that Paul Nicholls declared Rolling Aces for the handicap chase at 2:40, with the intention of keeping some weight off the back of Sound Investment.
If that was the case, then you would certainly have to respect this chances (as he would warrant respect, even if it wasn’t  !)

The trouble is, this could be a very hot race – with both The Papparizi Kid and Pendra potentially very well handicapped young horses.

When I first looked at the race, I was quite interested in No Butts – and at 8/1, there is a theoretical case for him.

However, I will be a little bit surprise ‘big 3’ in the race all perform below expectations – and I think that will be required for him to win.

In the final two races on the card, I would offer Tea for two and Seven Nation Army – but neither are at prices, which would particularly draw me in…

Doncaster

I did toy for a little while, with the prospect of tipping Free Thinking in the novice chase at 1:20…

There is little doubt in my mind that she is a mare best caught fresh – and the weight she receives from Un Ace could prove decisive.

However, I would feel a little more confident if she were still trained by Nicky Henderson (and not Robert Waley Cohen) – and I don’t think the other 2 runners in the race can be completely dismissed.

6/1 is probably a fair enough price – but one I just about managed to resist.

Davy Russell is over at Doncaster today, for two rides for Nicky Richards…

Interestingly, Richards has got 2 runners in both of the races – and in each case, Davy is on lesser fancied one – theoretically !

Yeah – well, that’s fooled me 

As I said last week, Davy won’t be coming over for a day out: there are shrewd cookies and then there is Davy Russell !

Wicked Spice looks the more likely of his mounts to me, in the 1:55 race (he also rides Azour Glamour in the 12:45) – but I would expect the market to reveal all, close to the off… 

Finally, I half expected to be tipping Premier Grand Cru in the 2:30 race.
However, I expected him to be around a 6/1 shot – and for me to be tipping him with provisos…

I really couldn’t believe he was put in at 9/4 – and was seemingly being backed at that price.

He has the potential to bounce - and Big Water has some very solid recent form.

That said, I expect Premier Grand Cru to win !

I also expect him to drift – and if he doesn’t, I suspect even more strongly that he will win !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Newbury 12:55 Vision Des Champs 9/1

Newbury 1:30 Bally Legend 40/1

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 2:05 Saphir Du Rheu (P )

Newbury 2:40 No Butts (O )

Doncaster 1:20 Free Thinking  (O )

Doncaster 1:55 Wicked Spice (S )

Doncaster 2:30 Premier Grand Crus (P )

Top Picks

 

None