Review of the day

This is in danger of turning into a long week…

Hour and hours of form study and typing – and I’m getting the feeling I would do just as well with a pin !

I’m trying to figure out what is going ‘wrong’ (assuming something is – and it’s not random chance) – and I have got a few thoughts…

Firstly, taking on the Willie Mullins horses in certain races, appear pointless…

I suspected that might be the case at the start of the week – and so it is proving.

More difficult to foresee however, was the number of races that have been won by horses who have improved out of all recognition (compared to recent form).

I can accept that happens (the quicker ground, for example, has a big impact) – but most of them have been well backed and so never reached the kind of ‘value’ price where I might have considered them.

I can only base my assessment on the form book and my eyes – if there are things going on which I’m not aware of (operations, medication, changes to training regimes etc), then I can’t factor them into my assessment.

There were at least 2 good examples of what I mean, this afternoon.

Cole Harden won the World hurdle in a way which really wasn’t easy to predict.

In fact, my feeling pre-race was that he was a fair bit shorter in the betting, than I would have expected (based on known factors).

Consequently, I could never have tipped him (or backed him)

However, it was explained after the race that he had undergone a breathing operation since he last ran (as had the next race winner, Darna) – which presumably accounted for some of the market support...

It was a similar story with The Package.

Sure it was possible to argue that he was quite well handicapped - but as a 12 year old, who had shown little in his 2 starts this campaign, the case for him being a 10/1 shot, was weak.

Again however, some people evidently knew he was spot on and he duly bolted in…

I’m not trying to make excuses – just saying that it is almost impossible to find some of these winners using conventional methods…

I can fully understand what is going on.
Connections want Cheltenham winners (for prize money and prestige) and consequently everything is thrown at some of the horses.

The trouble is, the likes of you and I, have guess which horses have come in for what treatment…

Anyway, in terms of how the actual tips ran…!

Ptit Zig – and the rest of the field – were completely outclassed by Vatour, who indeed did look like a machine.

Rarely will you see such metronomic jumping of the fences by a novice at Cheltenham.

It was sight to behold – and his future does indeed look very bright.

Next it was Trustan Times, who never really threatened to be involved in the Pertemps final.

The race was won by Call the Cops – one of the 4 I mentioned as the most likely winners – though in truth, the one I fancied least…

Wishfull Thinking was up next – but he showed that not all 12 year old perform like The Package !

He was never put in the race and pulled up not long after half way.

I knew his connections should have stuck with Menorah !

The winner, Uxizandre was a revelation.

He had run a similarly bold race 12 months ago – and in fairness, on quicker ground and with a visor applied for the first time, it would have been possible to have a speculative play on him…

Abbyssial never featured in the World hurdle (his jumping again looking suspect): though At Fishers Cross did run a fair race to finish fourth.

My big hope for the day was Rajdhani Express – but unfortunately, he never got into a position where he stood much chance of winning.

A standing start saw him on the back foot – and in a race run at a relentless gallop,  there were still many in with a chance 3 out and he just couldn’t find the room/pace to mount a challenge.

My view of him remains unchanged – he will win a decent handicap off his current mark on good ground.

It was similar story with Burn and Turn who also couldn’t find the room to mount any sort of a challenge.

We got closer in the final race, in which Grand Vision ran an honourable race to finish fourth and Heaney fifth – but neither were ever going to get within hailing distance of The Package.

So we enter the final day of the festival with a lot of ground to make up.

Needless to say, I’ll be doing my best - even though I know it won’t be easy.

We need a break – a bit of luck or an inspired pick.

Fingers crossed we get one !

TVB