Daily write-up - Mar 26th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Newbury and Ffos Las in the UK – plus Cork in Ireland.

There’s nothing much of interest running at Cork – but there is plenty of interest at both Newbury and Ffos Las.

Consequently, finding a tip or two was never going to be a problem – as is so often the case however, issuing them effectively is a different matter entirely…

Minella on Line was 20/1 in 4 places at 8:00 this morning – but 16/1 in 3, by 8:30…

What’s best to do ?

I issued at 8:30 – and the 16/1 was gone within 15 mins – with 12/1 the general price available.

However, he’s now back out to 16/1, in a couple of places….

I think it is important that you guys show some discipline when chasing these prices.

Most of the horses I tip will bounce back in price, following the initial surge.

If you miss the early boat, I really would discourage you from chasing.

You can back the horses right up until the off (by which time you will also have the benefit of access to the rationale for the tip).

If Minella on Line is 10/1 at the off, then it’s not much worse than the 12/1 that you probably had to take at 9:00 – and you can feel pretty confident that the horse has a live chance… (the other alternative, is that he drifts back out to 16/1).

Aside from the market moves, then the other thing to note is the overnight rain.
That wasn’t good news for any of the tips – though hopefully they will all be able to deal with it.

As I’ve said many times before, the issue with overnight rain is the uncertainty it brings – neither of the Newbury tips want soft ground (hopefully they won’t get it); whilst I would prefer it not to be desperate as Ffos Las for Minella on Line.

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Newbury

5:20

When I first looked at this race, I was very keen on the chances of Gaye Memories.

She is the only runner at the track for Dan and Harry Skelton – and has clearly been saved for a spring campaign.

It was my intention to tip her - but when I watched the videos of her past performances, I found that I couldn’t…

Simply, I don’t see how she can beat Queen Spud.

She finished well behind that one at Stratford at the back end of last season – and again, when both horses made their seasonal debuts at Ludlow, back in October…

You can make some excuses for Gaye Memories, but I just can’t see why she will turn things round (she was well beaten on both occasions).

I therefore switched my attention to Queen Spud, and I liked what I saw…
She too has clearly been kept back for the better ground – and she is not badly handicapped either.

She showed distinct promise when she ran at Ludlow – and didn’t run badly on her only other outing this season.
She gets in today off bottom weight – and with Dickie riding for Henry Daly.

What is there not to like ?!

I could have had a full half point on her – but there is another one in the field, who’s profile I am very keen on…

Magic Money has an excellent record when fresh – and is another who loves decent ground.

She was a very comfortable winner of a similar event at Uttoxeter on her seasonal debut – and gets to run off a mark just 2lb higher this afternoon.
That is more than offset by the claim of her jockey, Ed Cookson, so she is clearly potentially well handicapped.

She also looks progressive – and I can see no reason why she won’t run well today.

I would hope that Magic Money will make the running today, with Queen Spud sat in behind her.

Hopefully they will have shaken off most of their rivals by the home turn and the two of them can battle in out up the straight. That would be nice, wouldn’t it !!

0.25pt win Queen Spud 17/2

0.25pt win Magic Money 14/1

Earlier on the Newbury card, I would have put us on Katgary for the third time this season, if we could have got a price…

We were on him over fences at Kempton during the Christmas period – and again more recently, at the same venue, over hurdles.

He disappointed a little on both occasions - but I believe the ability is there to take a race like todays.

The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his last run – and he gets first time cheek pieces applied.

I would have tipped him at 5/1 (which I didn’t think was too ambitious) – but the best available this morning, was 4/1.

There are a few unknowns in the race, so I felt we needed a bit of a price – and simply I didn’t think the margin was quite there to warrant getting involved…

A couple of very interesting horses head the market in the handicap chase at 3:40.
Owen Na View and Morning Reggie were both massively impressive winners last week and turn out under penalties today.
Both are ‘well in’ compared to their new handicap marks – and I would expect one of them will take todays contest (assuming their recent exertions haven’t left a mark).

I would favour Owen Na View - who absolutely dotted up, in quite a strong race on Saturday.

However, he has an extra half mile to travel today – and the key to his improved form on Saturday, appeared to be the decent ground.

There is always the possibility that softer ground and a longer trip, will catch him out.

Morning Reggie wants soft ground – but the race he won last week was relatively weak.

That said, he has always looked a potentially decent prospect to me, so I think he is quite capable of taking todays race, if the ground is too soft for Owen Na View.

The handicap chase at 4:45 looks relatively weak – and based on the form book, I would be quite keen on the chances of Hellorboston.

He is well handicapped today compared to his hurdle rating – but I wasn’t too impressed by his jumping when he last ran at Newbury, at the end of last month.

Admittedly that was his first attempt at fences, so if he is slicker today (and he will need to be), he might be able to leave that form behind.

If that does happen, then I think todays race is there for the taking…

Ffos Las

3:50

Considering he has been pulled up on his last 4 outings, I’m a little disappointed by the price of Minella on Line today…

I guess a lot of that is down to his connections (Rebecca Curtis and Paul Townend) – and the fact that he has dropped a few pounds in the weights.

However, whilst both of those things are undoubtedly positives, they aren’t the reasons why I’m tipping Minella on Line today…

I keen on him today because of things I’ve seen in a couple of his runs this season.

The first time he came to my attention, was when he ran in a novice handicap chase at Ascot in November.

Despite jumping left at his fences and making a number of bad mistakes, he still managed to finished within 2 lengths of the winner that day.

That suggested to me that he was a well handicapped horse, off a mark of 135.

However, he was a huge disappointment on his next two races.

They were both over fences and the suggestion was that his ‘bottle’ for jumping a fence had gone…

I was therefore very interested in him when he reverted to hurdles at Warwick in January.

And sure enough, he ran a massive race, looming up at the fourth last, before failing to get home.
That race was over 3m2f on soft ground, and he didn’t quite have the stamina for that test.

His most recent run was again over fences – so I think that can be ignored (as I just don’t think he is prepared to face a fence at this point in his career).

Back over hurdles and off a mark 11lb lower than he ran off at Ascot, I think Minella on Line has a real chance this afternoon.

Obviously the overnight rain is a worry at is will make the race more of a test of stamina.

However, todays trip of 2m6f should suit him perfectly - certainly at Warwick, he was going like the winner at this distance.

If Paul Townend can hold on to him and deliver his challenge up the straight, then I think he is quite capable of seriously outrunning his odds.

0.25pt win Minella on Line 16/1

If Venetia was in better form than I would be quite tempted by Shattered Dreams in the handicap chase at 3:15.

He has run a couple of fair race this season (despite what his form figures say !) – and should relish todays test.
He is also dropping down the handicap like a stone – and I would expect him to be able to win a race of his current mark.

However, Venetias tend to run hot or cold – and they are currently running cold…

Realistically, he’s probably more likely to be one for early next season…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ffos Las 3:50 Minella on Line 0.25pt win 16/1

Newbury 5:20 Queen Spud 0.25pt win 17/2 (pre R4)

Newbury 5:20 Magic Money 0.25pt win 14/1 (pre R4)

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 3:05 Katgary (P )

Newbury 3:40 Owen Na View (C )

Newbury 4:45 Hellorboston (S )

Ffos Las 3:15 Shattered Dreams (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None