Daily write-up - Mar 24th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon, at Southwell and Hexham.

In truth, there is very little of interest at either meeting – apart from one race at Southwell…

Southwell

3:10

We were on Rhanpando 3 outings ago, when he made his chasing debut at Doncaster.

He ran really well that day – but was beaten when taking a fall at the final fence.

However, he made amends for that on his very next outing, when taking a class 4 event at Leicester, in gutsy fashion.

That race didn’t look anything special at the time – but subsequent events, have shown it to be exceptional form, for the grade…

Rhapando managed to out battle Cloud Creeper that day, and that one has subsequently gone on and won twice – and is now rated 22lb pounds higher.

The third placed horse, Until Winning, has also won twice since then – as has the fourth placed horse, Achimota  (both are now rated significantly higher).

Better than that, the fifth place horse, Foxbridge, has subsequently recorded a hatrick of wins and is now rated 18lb higher.
Simply, the form of that race is gilt edged…

In truth, Rhapando did have a fitness/experience edge over a lot of his rivals that day – but it is still fair to think, that he had to perform to a level about 20lb higher than his official rating, in order to win…

The handicapper actually raised him 7lb for that win – so it would have been reasonable to expect him to follow up next time, but he didn’t…

In fact, he ran really poorly at Newbury and was pulled up.

In a way, that is a good thing, as his run was too bad to be true - and can therefore be ignored.

And if we do ignore it, we are potentially looking at a horse who is about a stone well in on his official rating (based of the subsequent form of those around him at Leicester).

You would expect that to be enough to win a race like today’s – particularly as he is already the highest rated horse in the race (in short, he could just be different class to his rivals).

The only caveat I would add, is that it is dependant on Worthy Award not having more than a stone in hand of his current mark (and that is a possibility) – and on Rhapando running to form…

The latter is definitely a concern. Firstly he has been off the track for nearly 3 months – and secondly, his trainer, Paul Webber, has been in woeful form all season.

Webber has not had a winner since Rhapando won back in December - and he’s only had 4 winners since last June.

That said, his two runners yesterday both performed pretty well, so hopefully his stable are about to find a bit of form.

Certainly, if Rhapando runs to the same level he did at Leicester – and Worthy Award isn’t thrown in – then I think he will take a lot of beating.
Fingers crossed that’s how it turns out…

0.5pt win Rhapando 13/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.