Daily write-up - Mar 21st

There are 6 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Kelso, Bangor, Stratford and Fontwell in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

It came as quite a shock to see so much racing – but it really is a case of quantity over quality and I struggled to find much of interest.

I quite quickly dismissed the meetings at Fontwell, Stratford and Gowran - but there are still plenty of minefields at the 3 other venues !

It’s the kind of day where I could have issued a dozen half hearted tips – but as it’s not Cheltenham, I decided to stick with the 3 ;)

Hopefully at least one of them will manage to come home in front.

Here is the rational – plus plenty of ammunition for those of you who like to follow the mentions !!

Newbury

3:10

This is an open looking race, but I think it is worth taking a small chance on Handy Andy.

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, back in October, when staying on really well to finish third. With that run behind him, I felt he was sure to have a decent campaign. However, it has not panned out that way, with him disappointing, to a greater or lesser extent, on his 4 subsequent runs.

I can’t offer much in the way of explanation for his poor runs, other than they were all on heavy winter ground – and the worst two, were on courses that wouldn’t have particularly suited him (Sandown and Wincanton).

In fairness, his run in the Welsh National was actually quite good – with him just being outstayed near the end of that marathon.

My hopes for a revival today are based on the change in ground; the return to Newbury (where his record is 3 from 6) and the fact that he should be relatively fresh, following a 2 month break.

I’m sure he is capable of winning off his current mark (127), so at a fair enough price, I think he warrants a small interest.

It’s possible to make half hearted cases for a few of the others.
I tipped Carruthers last weekend, before he was withdrawn from the Midlands Grand National.

That was on account of the very heavy ground – but I would be a little fearful that he might find the ground today too quick…

Both Master Neo and Imperial Circus are also of some potential interest, so it’s certainly not a race where you can be dogmatic about the likely outcome.

0.25pt win Handy Andy 10/1

The handicap chase at 2:40 has a similarly open look to it.

I can fully understand the support for both Pepite Rose and Persian Snow – and they would be my pair against the field (they have both been tipped by Pricewise).

That said, it’s race where an upset wouldn’t surprise, so it’s one I was happy enough to swerve.

Of the outsiders, then Carrigmorna King is probably the one that interests me most, back racing on more suitable ground…

The 4 year old hurdle at 3:45, looks ferociously competitive…

I was quite interested in Storm Force Ten for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival. However, he swerved that race for todays contest, so he has to be of interest.

However, he has been very well found in the market and I can’t believe that a price of 2/1 represents any value whatsoever…

I would be more inclined to side with Lil Rockerfella who represents the Neil King yard.

He has a 100% record when teaming up with Harry Skelton and it wouldn’t surprise me if that figure was maintained this afternoon.

Kelso

2:50

The market for this race is made by Jonjo O’Neills Spookydooky.

He is chasing a hatrick today after comfortable wins at Doncaster and Southwell. However he is now racing off a mark 22lb higher than for the first of those – and is running in a race 2 classes higher.

In short, he has a lot more on his plate – and simply had to be opposed at the early 5/2…

Of far more interest, is the Brian Ellison trained Racing Europe.

He really caught my eye last time out, when competing in a Pertemps qualifier at Haydock.

That was only his fourth run over hurdles – but he was still moving with menace, approaching the third last hurdle.

He didn’t quite get home from there, but I reckon that was because the ground that day was a fair bit softer than he would have wanted.

He’s likely to be far happier on todays quicker surface and I am very optimistic that he can pick up the winning thread this afternoon.

Whilst non of the other runners can be readily dismissed, most do have question marks hanging over them.

Racing Europe looks a potentially well handicapped horse to me, who is in good form and will relish the conditions.

Hopefully he will prove too much for his rivals to handle.

0.5pt win Racing Europe 6/1

There are some really interesting races on the rest of the Kelso card, though finding a winner is a different matter…

In the handicap chase at 2:15, I thought Sharney Sike might be worth a speculative punt – but I didn’t expect him to be a 10/1 shot.
Ofcourse, that won’t stop him from winning – but it does stop him from being ‘value’.

A case of sorts can be made for virtually every runner in the field: it really is an open contest.

I expected Sun Cloud to be favourite, so the fact he can be backed at 13/2, possibly makes him a value call…

The handicap chase at 3:25 looks likely to go to one or the Oscars: Rock or Fortune. However, they are first and second favourite, so that’s not going to make you very rich.

If forced, I would side with Oscar Rock, who looked a reformed character last time out.

However, you’ll struggle to get 2/1 on him, so it’s easy enough to pass on the race.

There are a couple of old favourites in the 4:00 race, in the shape of Tiptoeaway and Vengeur de Guye.

Both were last time out winners for us and I could see both going very well again today.

However, with 2 or 3 other interesting ones in the mix – and best prices of around 4/1, its another race that is easy to walk away from.

If forced, I would go with Tiptoeaway, who I think remains well handicapped and who will again, have the quick ground he needs to show his best.

Bangor

2:25

We were on Ruler of All on his penultimate run at Newbury, 4 weeks ago.

That was in a much more competitive race than todays, and he was a speculative pick, based on a decent run at Ludlow.

However, he disappointed at Newbury, failing to act in the rain soften ground and eventually coming home well beaten.

I missed his next run at Fakenham, as it took place during Cheltenham week.

However I have watched a replay of it and he has to be considered a very unlucky loser…

Fakenham is a very tight track and Ruler of Alls jockey, Ryan Winks, managed to find all kinds of trouble in running.

In fact you wouldn’t think it possible to encounter the amount of traffic issues that he did over the final couple of furlongs of the race.

He went for a run up the inside and got repeatedly squeezed up and forced to check.

To the horses credit, he continued to do his best, but he was always fighting a losing battle and an honourable third was a good performance in the circumstances.

The handicapper has very generously dropped him a pound for that run – so he is now on a mark 3lb lower than his mark at Newbury.

He was handicapped to win at Newbury – so he is handicapped to hack up today !

He is also in really good form and will have ground and trip to suit.

In short, there is nothing not to like about him !

The only issue I can see, is the opposition…

I can see an argument for Eddie Maurice (unexposed over hurdles); whilst Restraint of Trade has come in for some very strong support.

Both are potentially big dangers…

However, I do think that Ruler of All is a very well handicapped horse and in he circumstances, it is worth taking them on.

0.5pt win Ruler of All 11/2

Our old friend Freckle Face runs in the handicap chase at 3:00 – but I think the ground might have gone for him this season…

I would be more interested in top weight, Ohio Gold, who has dropped to a mark where he really should be competitive.
In truth he is a bit quirky – however he has a first time hood applied today and if that does the trick, I think he will take the beating.

Finally, there is a competitive handicap hurdle at 3:35 – but it’s another race where it is difficult to be dogmatic about the outcome.

I thought Western Jo was unlucky not to win last time out – but he faces a couple of very progressive novices in the shape of Leave it Be and Binge Drinker.

There are also a number of horses better known as chasers, who are potentially well handicapped over hurdles - plus the solid yardstick, Mickie.

If forced, I would opt for Binge Drinker, for whom Paul Townend is an eye catching jockey booking.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Newbury 3:10 Handy Andy 0.25pt win 10/1

Kelso 2:50 Racing Europe 0.5pt win 6/1

Bangor 2:25 Ruler of All 0.5pt win 11/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 2:00 Pepite Rose (P )

Newbury 3:45 Lil Rockerfeller (S )

Kelso 2:15 Sun Cloud (O )

Kelso 3:25 Oscar Rock (P )

Kelso 4:00 Tiptoeaway (O )

Bangor 3:00 Ohio Gold (O )

Bangor 3:35 Binge Drinker (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None