Monthly report - February

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 13.75pts

Total profit: 11pts

ROI 80%

*The total figure, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

So the sequence of 100% ROI months comes to an end :(

That said, we are still running at an ROI of almost exactly 100% for the 3 deep winter months of December, January and February – so I don’t think anyone can have too many complaints !

With regard to February, then it was another very pleasing month.

As I said last month, historically my performance in January and February has not been brilliant – so to record such good numbers in both months, gives me a lot of satisfaction.

I also got satisfaction from the successful change in strategy, that I again adopted during the month.

I said last month about how I ‘embraced the uncertainty’ during January.

Half way through February, it became clear that things had moved on and this was no longer the best strategy to be using, so I changed and adopted my more usual approach.

And pleasingly, this again delivered, with the performance in the second half of the month a lot better than that in the first (when I was tipping more speculatively).

The real positive I take out of the whole period, is the knowledge that I have multiple strategies which I can adopt, depending on where we are during the season.

The importance of this really shouldn’t be under-estimated…

Anyway, back to the numbers:

The 13.75pts staked during January were spread across 39 horses competing in 36 races.

These number are almost exactly the same as those achieved during January, and again support my comments from last month, concerning how difficult it is now, to tip during the mid week.

During the entire month, I was only able to issue 5 tips between Monday and Thursday (that covered 16 days out of the 28).

Of the 39 tips, in terms of placings, they achieved the following:

1^st – 7

2^nd – 4

3^rd – 3

4^th - 4

I target 25% of the tips finishing first or second and managed to slightly better that.

The ratio of advised price to BSP was also very similar to January.

If you have just backed all of the tips at the advised price and layed them off on BF at BSP, you would only have made 2.56pts profit (18% ROI).

I guess if there was one slightly disappointing aspect to the month, it was the performance of the tips to a level stake at BSP.

They did make a profit – but this month it was only 2.85pts – which is far lower than the numbers achieve in December and January.

That said, I am not (currently) looking to make a profit at BSP (I would tip slightly different horses if I was), so any profit has to be consider quite good.
Interestingly, you would have made a bigger profit at BSP if you had used the suggested staking (4.74pts on 13.75pts staked).

This is because of the absence of the big priced winners during the month, as they tend to improve performance when judged to a level stake.

The Top Picks had an absolutely blinding month – with a 100% success rate !

It’s just a shame that I only issued one of them !
More seriously, they have all but fallen off the list, simply because of the lack of time.

My priority has to be to find the main tips – and I’ve not been looking in the right places for Top Picks.

They may have to be parked for the season – but I’ve seen enough to know they have a long term future…

So that’s it for the penultimate month of the season (can you believe it ?!).

It’s been another really good month – and almost regardless of what happens in March, this is going to be viewed as a good season (I won’t be risking enough points to mess things up too much).

That said, March is obviously a massively important month – simply because of the Cheltenham festival.

Those 4 days will get as much focus from me as an average month during the season.

I know I should be looking forward to it – and I am - however the number of short priced favourites in the conditions races does worry me a little…

I like to tip in most of the races at the festival but I just don’t know if it will be possible this season (unless I adopted an EW approach – which I might be forced to do).

Just so you are aware, I won’t be doing a ‘Cheltenham Special’ this season – so my tips will only be sent out to you guys (which means I won’t feel obliged to force things quite as much).

However, as with last season, I will take the Cheltenham numbers out of the seasons official figures (and the Aintree numbers as well).
This is because I want to be able to stake in an unconstrained manner - without worrying about it the effect it is having on the seasons P&L (I feel I graft too hard for that, to risk it over 4 short days !).

Anyway, I will have plenty more to say about Cheltenham – and how I will handle it – as this week progresses...

For those who are interested, I don’t think there will be any more Cheltenham activity on the ante-post blog (the number of possible opportunities has been disappointingly limited) – however, I do have an ante-post tip for the Grand National, which I will look to get up in the next few days !

There really is no let up in the activity…!

TVB.