Daily write-up - Mar 10th (Cheltenham Day 1)

Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival.

It feels like we’ve been waiting weeks for the festival to come round – and I guarantee it be over in the blink of an eye !

Such is the way of it.

4 days of intense excitement – it’s like nothing else.

As I’ve said previously, I’m slightly more apprehensive than normal about this year.

I don’t have a particularly strong fancy for any of the championship races: whilst the Willie Mullins battalions cast a shadow over virtually all of the novice events - which leave us with the handicaps

I’m more than happy to play in those – but they are always hugely competitive – and we’ll need a bit of luck.

I’ve spent a time of time over the past week, looking at all of the races – and my feeling is that things get ‘easier’ as the week progresses !

That’s just as well, as I certainly don’t feel we are on any ‘bankers’ on day 1.

Just a quick note on the daily advice summary:

You will see that it has an additional section, entitled ‘previous TVB tips’.

In the past 2 seasons, horses that I’ve tipped earlier in the season have done remarkably well at both Cheltenham and Aintree.

I’ve no idea whether this success will continue - but I know that a few of your are interested in it as an angle, so I have added qualifying horses to the summary.

Thanks to Dan for pulling the list together

Anyway, on to business and my thoughts on all of the day 1 races:

1:30

When I tipped Alvisio Ville last Thursday, it was in the hope that AP would be on board (or that if he wasn’t, the horse wouldn’t run !).

My heart therefore sank a little yesterday, when I saw it had been declared with Davey Casey riding.

I think that is called drawing the short straw !

I’m not going to dress it up – I’ll now be surprised if he wins.

I gambled that AP would choose Alvisio Ville ahead of Jollyallan and he hasn’t – I suspect that means it is sunk.

My reason for thinking he might choose Alvisio Ville was because it had been sent off a very short priced favourite for the Grade 1 Deloitte hurdle on it’s most recent run.
That was only its second run over hurdles, suggesting that connections thought very highly of it.

In the race itself, it ran a bit too freely and didn’t get home.

My feeling was that it wanted dropping back to 2 miles – which is what happens today.

If it had received a vote of confidence from AP, I would feel hopeful that it might be able to turn over the market leaders.
With that vote of confidence, I’m nowhere near as hopeful…

In the circumstances, I will be very surprised if the race doesn’t go to one of the market leaders.

Willie Mullins has been very bullish indeed about the chances of Douvan.

When you consider the array of talent he has to compare it with, the very fact that it is clearly the stables first string, means it must have a very good chance.
It has only run twice and visually, has been massively impressive on both occasions.

In fairness, the form of its wins doesn’t stand up to the closest scrutiny – but as they say, you can only beat what is put in front of you.

If Douvan is over turned today, than I suspect it will be by second favourite, L’Ami Serge.

He is also unbeaten over hurdles this season – and his form is slightly stronger than that of Douvan.

He would likely be a strong favourite – if Douvan weren’t in the race.

Outside the top two, then half hearted cases can be made for the likes of Jollyallan and Qewy – but I honestly don’t think they have the star potential of the main two.

This race is normally won by a seriously good horse – and other than Douvan and L’ami Serge, there was only Alvisio Ville who I felt might be capable of reaching the very top.

Unfortunately, it would appear that AP disagrees…

Alvisio Ville 0.25pt win 16/1

2:05

From an ante-post perspective, the Arkle has been a bit of a nightmare for me…

I spent a lot of time in December, trying to decide whether to tip Un De Sceaux for the race – he was a 6/1 shot a the time.

Then in January, I got half way through writing the justification for tipping Vibrato Voltat EW at 20/1 – when his price was slashed to 14/1 !

I’m therefore hoping it is third time lucky, with Sail by the Sea !

And in truth, it is going to have to be third time very lucky – as he is the rank outsider of the field.

I can understand that, because he has very little form to recommend him – however, the favourite aside, this looks a pretty weak renewal of the race.

Clearly, if Un De Sceaux runs his race and gets round safely, he is likely to win as he pleases.

Potentially he looks different class to his rivals – and it is not hard to envisage him hacking up this afternoon and then doing the same in 12 months time in the Queen Mother Champion chase.

He really could be that good.

However, he has two potential Achilles heals: firstly, he is quite highly strung, so there is a chance that the occasion might get to him; and secondly, he is a bold jumper, so there is a chance that one of the fences might catch him out.

My feeling is that he will probably get away with both - but I’m not sure I would want to take 4/6 on it.

In terms of opponents, then I really don’t think he has much to worry about – he either wins the race, or he loses it…

Based purely on form over fences this season, then Vibrato Voltat is a worthy second favourite – but I still have my doubts over him.

His last time out win at Warwick was impressive – but he has little in hand of Three Kingdoms, based on his previous run at Kempton.

There are a few I could have put up EW (Three Kingdoms being one) – but I’ve opted for Sail by the Sea.

With only 2 previous runs over fences - and 4 under rules in total, it is impossible to accurately assess him.

However the fact that he represents last seasons winning combination of David Pipe and Tom Scudamore, is enough to get me interested.

He has certainly shown a lot of potential when he has run – and clearly David Pipe thinks he is up to today test.

In a normal year, I might not be quite so convinced - but the favourite aside I really don’t see much to be worried about this afternoon.

It is quite possible that Sail by the Sea will be outclassed – but it is also possible that he will raise his game and run a big race.

At 66/1, I think he is worth a tiny risk.

The other angle I can see into the race, is via the betting without Un De Sceaux market…

I do think that there is a possibility that Un De Sceaux will simply blow the field apart.

Anything that tries to make a race of it with him, could well end up paying the penalty late on.

In this scenario, I could see something being ridden very patiently and picking up the pieces late on.

If this does happen, the horse most likely to benefit is Court Minstrel.

He was very decent hurdler, with a marked preference for good ground.

On form, he hasn’t got much to find with the likes of Vibrato Voltat and he will almost certainly receive a very patient ride from Paul Moloney.

If there is carnage up front, then I’m hopeful that Court Minstrel will be able to take advantage.

Sail be the Sea 0.125pt EW 66/1

*W/O Un De Sceaux

Court Minstrel 0.25pt win 12/1

2:40

As you would expect, a fiercely competitive handicap – and I’m taking 2 against the field…

The first of those is Barrakilla.
He is a relatively unexposed 8 year old, who still has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark of 136.

He has only run twice this season: on the first occasion, he was an eye catching third to Sound Investment in a very hot race at Sandown in November.

He was given a quiet ride that day and looked as if he would benefit from both the experience and a step up in trip.

However he was kept to roughly the same trip for his only subsequent outing, when sent off favourite for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, at Cheltenham December meeting.
He never stood a chance with all the way winner that day, Niceonefrankie, but he did stay on nicely to take a remote second place, close home.

He gets the step up in trip today and if that has the expected effect, I think he will go close.

The other one I want on side, is Mendip Express.

In truth, he’s as high in the handicap as I would want (rated 148) – but I’m hopeful that he can still find the 7lb or so improvement that is likely to be needed to win todays race.

What I like about him is that he’s put in a couple of spectacular performances in the past 14 months - and I have generally found that only horses from the top bracket, are capable of doing that.

Certainly his win over this course on New Years day last year, was spectacular – and he runs off a mark just 9lb higher today.

His performance over the Aintree fences in December was also pretty impressive, as he managed to finish second whilst clearly disliking the course and almost getting tailed off early on.

His other 5 runs during that period have either been excusable – or over hurdles – so I’m happy to judge him on those 2 big runs.

If he is able to perform to that level today, I think he has to be in the mix despite his big weight.

Needless to say, dangers abound – and I would nominate Theatre Guide and Ned Stark as the 2 I fear the most.

However, I’m optimistic that either Barrakilla or Mendip Express may be able to come home in front.

0.25pt win Barrakilla 14/1

0.25pt win Mendip Express 16/1

3:15

It’s very difficult to find an angle into this years Champion hurdle.

I can’t see Hurricane Fly rolling back the years – but both Jezki and The New One are more than capable of wining an average Champion hurdle (as was shown last year).

However, in Faugheen, there is a chance that they are facing a true Champion.

A bit like Un De Sceaux, it’s impossible to know just how good he is – but a record of 8 wins from 8 runs, 3 at grade 1 level, suggests he is pretty damn good !

I think we will find out a lot more today – and I couldn’t recommend backing him at even money. However, I can’t bring myself to take him on either…

I did toy with tipping The New One – as I can’t see even Faugheen getting up the hill better than him.

However, I think there is a chance in a relatively slowly run race, The New One might be caught out for a turn of foot when the pace quickens.

As he found out last year, you simply can’t give top class horses 5 lengths start and expect to catch them (though admittedly a lot of what happen then, wasn’t his fault).

Outside the big 3, then I could certainly see Hurricane Fly running a decent race – and possibly placing, if one of the principal under performs.

Similarly, it’s not completely impossible that one of Arctic Fire, Kitten Rock or Vaniteux will improve sufficiently to become competitive.
That said, I think it pretty unlikely that any of them will get the better of The New One – and I’m not sure he will be able to master Faugheen.

In summary, a fascinating race – but one I feel is best watched.
If The New One is beaten, then I hope it is by Faugheen – and we get to witness the coming of age of a new equine super star.

4:00

Whilst there may be 15 runners in the race, it will be a monumental surprise if the winner comes from outside the top 7 in the betting.

More than that, the top 3 in the market, look to have the race between them and I fully expect them to fill the first 3 places.

In all probability, the race will be won by Annie Power – but if there is to be a shock (relatively speaking !) then I’m hopeful that Polly Peachum will be the one to provide it.

Officially, she is rated 7lb inferior to Annie Power – and that is probably about right.
However, Polly Peachum has been a massive improver over the past 12 month – and will get her ideal conditions today (2m4f and decent ground).
Annie Power will have no issue with conditions either – but she will be making her seasonal debut and whilst that might not cause her a problem, it’s not ideal either.

In fairness, Polly Peachums preparation for today race was hardly ideal.

She ran her only disappointing race in the last 12 months on her most recent start.
However that was over 3 miles on soft ground – and I simply feel is was a test that didn’t suit her (plus the winner ‘stole’ the race).

She will have no excuses today in terms of ground, trip and course – the question is simply whether she is good enough to beat Annie Power.

The consensus say ‘no’ – and that might be the case, but in a race lacking much depth, I’ll be very disappointed if she finishes outside the first 3.

The other member of the main triumvirate is Glens Melody.

She finished runner up to Quevega in last years contest – and I would expect her to run another big race this afternoon.
However, she doesn’t have the class of Annie Power - and isn’t as progressive as Polly Peachum.

That said, I actually think she is almost guaranteed to finish in the first 3 – but I’ll be surprised if she is good enough to win.

0.25pt EW Polly Peachum 10/1

4:40

The betting for this race looks wrong to me…

I can understand why Very Wood heads the market (as a festival winner from last season) but he’s not a horses I’d be taking 7/2 about.

Similarly, I can understand why Sego Success is second favourite (his trainer Alan King, has a very good record in the race and has targeted him at it) – but his form isn’t that much better than a number of the other runners.

Consequently, I feel there must be some value elsewhere in the race…

In truth, I could have put up almost any of the next dozen or so in the betting because I don’t think there is that much between them – so, I’ve chosen two, primarily for value reasons…

The first of those is Thunder and Roses.

He is a decent novice chaser who has always looked the sort to come into his own over a marathon trip.

He’s actually the highest rated horse on official ratings – though I’m not quite sure how the handicapper has arrived a his rating (I just hope he is right !).

He was well beaten by Very Wood on his most recent outing – however, he didn’t run his race that day. Interestingly he started half the price of his rival – so clearly better was expected of him.

I’m always prepared to forgive a horse one bad run – particularly when the market has completely dismissed them on the back of it.

The other one I want on side is Vivaldi Collonges.

He has only run twice over fences and has been well beaten by Kings Palace on both occasions.
However, that one is a short price for the RSA chase, so there was little disgrace there.

Vivaldi Collonges is only a 6 year old, with just 8 previous outings under rules - so he still has plenty of scope for improvement.
I think it interesting that Paul Nichols is prepared to throw him into a race such as this and again, feel he is significantly over-priced at 16/1.

In truth, there are few results that would really surprise me in this race – but I do think we are on a couple with a chance at decent prices.

0.25pt win Thunder and Roses 25/1

0.25pt win Vivaldi Collonges 16/1

5:15

This race has caused me some anguish !

There have literally been half a dozen horses that I’ve toyed with tipping – but either I didn’t quite feel the price was there, or someone else beat me to the punch (and the price went as a consequence).

However, all the way through, I was determined that I was going to put up one horse as a saver – Thomas Crapper.

I’ve not been happy with his price since the day the markets were formed – but I’ve always felt him the most likely winner of the race.

This morning, decided on the radical path of ditching all of the other horses I have been interested in and just going with my main fancy for the race (even though I think his price is decidedly skinny !).

In terms of why I fancy him so much, then the case for him is quite obvious (which probably explains the price !).
Rarely do you see a horse campaigned all season, with just one race in mind (unless it’s the Grand National).

However, that is precisely what has happened with Thomas Crapper.

He’s run in inappropriate race after inappropriate race this season: never having a chance to win – but building up chasing experience and preserving his chasing mark.

You have to admire the single-mindedness of his connections.
I suspect they targeted this race 12 months ago, just after he had finished second to Don Poli in the Martin Pipe race at last years festival.

On a line through that horse – and Caid du Berlais, who finished just behind in third place - Thomas Crapper has about 10lb in hand of his current mark – and that is how it has looked all season.

Ordinarily, 10lb in hand would be just about sufficient to win a Cheltenham handicap – so lets hope that’s how it works out today…

In terms of my ‘nearly’ horses, then Killala Quay, Irish Cavalier, Stella Notion and Keltus could all have been selections.
But, hand on heart, I would have fancied Thomas Crapper to beat them all.

Lets hope my decision to just go for him – and his connections patience - is rewarded this afternoon.

0.5pt win Thomas Crapper 15/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:30 Alvisio Ville 0.25pt win 16/1

Cheltenham 2:05 Sail by the Sea 0.125pt EW 66/1

Cheltenham 2:05 (w/o UDS) Court Minstel 0.25pt win 14/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Barrakilla 0.25pt win 14/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Mendip Express 0.25pt win 16/1

Cheltenham 4:00 Polly Peachum 0.25pt EW 10/1

Cheltenham 4:40 Thunder and Roses 0.25pt win 25/1

Cheltenham 4:40 Vivaldi Collonges 0.25pt win 16/1

Cheltenham 5:15 Thomas Crapper 0.5pt win 15/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 3:15 The New One (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Previous TVB Tips

 

2:05 God’s Own

2:40 According to Trev, Gevrey Chambertin, Indian Castle, The Druids Nephew, Theatre Guide

4:40 The Job is RIght

5:15 Little Jon