Daily write-up - Mar 30th

There are 3 meeting this afternoon, at Warwick, Kempton and Chepstow.

The penultimate day of the TVB season…

And there is some pretty good racing – certainly for a Monday.

Finding a tip or two, was relatively easy to do – though I won’t bore you with the difficulties surrounding actually issuing them !

Suffice to say that the price of No Buts crashed – though as I said this morning, it was already tumbling – and I’m aware that it was tipped by another tipster shortly after I’d sent it out…

The price of Ballybough Pat dropped a couple of points as well – but I think that is to be expected.

I will always believe there is at least a 20% margin in the price of any tips I issue – so you should use that as your guide when deciding whether a price is acceptable…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Warwick

3:25

The market for this race is made by Horizontal Speed, who was fourth in the novice handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham festival.

He ran really well that day and his final placing doesn’t flatter him – however, I suspect he had an exceptionally hard race and as we saw yesterday with Zareb, there is every chance that a hard race at the festival will leave its mark…

No Buts also ran at the festival – but he never really featured in the 2m4f handicap chase run on day 3.

That was a very rough race – and No Buts was given quite a hard ride from the third last – but couldn’t make sufficient ground on the leaders to mount a challenge.

I am slightly concerned that the race may have left a mark – however, he was only under pressure for half about half a mile, so hopefully he will have got away with it.

If he has, then I think he has a very good chance of going close today.

He is well handicapped off mark of 137 – just 7lb higher than when running away with a decent race at Newbury earlier in the season.

There have been excuses for his 2 below par runs since then (the second of which was the festival run) – and so I’m hoping everything will click into place this afternoon.

One factor which I am hoping will be key, is the return of Tom Scudamore in the saddle – he has been missing on his last two runs but has been on board when the horse has run its best races (two wins and two seconds).

The horse has run well round Warwick twice before, so there should be no issue with the track. He will also have ground conditions to suit, so I am optimistic of a very big show.

Aside from the favourite, then it is some of the longer priced horses that I would be most fearful of…

Drumshambo is now a very well handicapped horse – and the application of first blinkers and a return to 2m4f could see him running a very big race.

If Venetia was in better form I would certainly be very concerned about him – regardless, I can see him running a big race.

The other two of interest are Ciceron and Benefit Cut. Both have a lot of question marks over them - but I both also have the ability to run big races this afternoon…

0.5pt win No Buts 7/1

Our old friend Merano runs in the opening event on the card – and I can see him running a big race.

We were on him last time out when he won at Uttoxeter and off a mark just 6lb higher there is no reason why he won’t run another big race this afternoon.

That said, I think this is a deeper race than the one he contested last time. I managed to resist the 11/2 early – so the 3/1 on offer now holds very limited appeal…

In the 2:55 race, Smart Story catches my eye…

He has absolutely no form to recommend him, so he could never be a bet. However, this is a very poor race and I think it is interesting that he gets to run for the first time over fences under rules, in a handicap.

He finished second on his only run in a PTP – and if he has even a modicum of ability, todays race is there for the taking…

Chepstow

3:35

Ballybough Pat is a horse that you should all be familiar with by now, as I’ve already tipped him twice this season.

The first occasion was when he made his seasonal debut over hurdle in the Lanzarote at Kempton - and then when he made his chasing debut in a small race at Leicester.

He didn’t win on either of those occasions – but he ran with credit both times.

As a consequence, he was well backed on his third outing of the season, in a decent handicap chase at Sandown.
However he disappointed that day and was eventually pulled up after making a number of mistakes.

He was also pulled up on his most recent outing – but he ran with much more credit that day.

That was at Taunton, over an extreme trip of 3m5f and after travelling well for most of the race, Ballybough Pat just didn’t get home…

He is dropped back to 3 miles today – and the handicapper has dropped him 6lb.

As a consequence, he is able to sneak into todays 0-120 race with top weight.

I am hoping that the drop in class will enable him to get back on the winning track…

In fairness, it does look quite an open race and I could give a chance to most of the runners.

The other one that catches my eye is the Venetia trained Spirit D’Amor – but it seems quite significant that Aidan Coleman rides Ballybough Pat in preference to him.

At the end of the day, this comes down to prices and perceived value – and at 12/1 I think it worth taking a small risk that Ballybough Pat can bounce back to form.

0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 12/1

The other horse of interest running at Chepstow this afternoon, is Luddsdenene…
He has his second outing for Alex Dunne in the finale – and his first for her over fences…

He is not well handicapped – and he is better over hurdles than over fences.
Against that, he is quite a big price – and will doubtless travel through the race.

If you are that way inclined, you could probably back him  pre-race and lay off for a profit in-running.

Though I some how doubt that a win only bet on him will collect…

Kempton

The third horse that I considered tipping this morning was Rhapando, who runs in the handicap chase at 4:20…

I tipped him at Southwell last week, but he was withdrawn from the race mid morning.

We got 13/2 about him that day in a race that looked weaker than todays.

He opened up last night at 6/1 – but you would have struggled to get 4/1 this morning  (he is 7/2 now).

I think he is quite capable of wining a race like todays, but he comes with risks - not least of which is the form of his stable.

At a price, I would have risked him – but he just doesn’t feel like a strong 7/2 shot to me…

His stale companion, Thecorrupter, is of some interest in the preceding race on the card.

He has even more question marks hanging over him than Rhapando – but at least you can get a price on him.

In fairness, that is due in part to him taking on some potentially decent opposition.

All the same, he might be worth a small EW interest at he 14/1 generally on offer…

Finally, I think that Right Step looks over priced in the handicap hurdle at 4:55.

He won well on his penultimate outing before apparently finding the ground too quick last time out.
He has run well over todays course and distance previously and isn’t too badly handicapped.

He does face some potentially decent rivals - but his price of 16/1 again offers EW possibilities…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Warwick 3:25 No Buts 0.5pt win 7/1

Chepstow 3:35 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Warwick 2:20 Merano (O )

Warwick 2:55 Smart Story (S )

Chepstow 5:15 Luddsdenene (C )

Kempton 3:50 Thecorrupter (O )

Kempton 4:20 Rhapando (P )

Kempton 4:55 Right Step (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None