Daily write-up - Mar 6th

There are 3 NH meetings today at Sandown, Leicester and Ayr.

And whilst they are not the best meetings ever staged, there are 3 or 4 races across the meetings, which I suspect I could have found a tip in – if I’d really wanted to…

Don’t get me wrong, if there was something I really fancied, then we’d be on it: there are no ‘must bets’ today. However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t one or two possible opportunities…

Somewhat bizarrely, the best race of the day is probably at Ayr: the handicap chase due off at 4:45.

It’s a real cracker, with plenty of decent horses lining up.

On my initial look yesterday, I was most interested in And the Man and Back to Bracka.

They opened up at half reasonable prices – but they have now worked themselves to the top of the market.

I think either one could win – and Back to Bracka is still a borderline value at 5/1 – but against such strong opposition, the margin is tiny.

There are a couple of races of interest at Leicester.

In the opening event on the card, Bebinn looks a very solid favourite to me.

13/8 may not be much of a price – but I don’t think he’s got much to beat…

The other race of interest on the Leicester card, is the handicap chase at 3:50.

I was initially attracted to Royal Charm – but so too was everyone else !

A best price of 9/2, now offers little value.

That said, I think the favourite is opposable, so there must be some value some where !

Noble Legend could be the one, after a more promising run last time: though I could also be interested in Upepito for Venetia. He is Aidan Colemans only ride of the day, which could be significant.

Both can be backed at 8/1, which seems fair enough…

There are a few races of interest at Sandown, as well…

In the Grand Military Gold Cup, Howlongisafoot looks too short to me, at 6/5.

I’d be more inclined to take a chance on his stablemate, Merrion Square.
The other potential one of interest, is Tales of Milan.

He’s got a bit to do on the book: but won over this course earlier in the season and his front running style will be a bonus in a race such as this.

25/1 seems quite a generous price...

The betting for the handicap hurdle at 4:00, is completely dominated by Lessons in Milan – which could be quite right, who knows !

He dotted up in a maiden hurdle last time out, and the handicapper is just guessing with his initial mark of 126.

There must be a chance that it seriously underestimates his ability – but equally, there’s a chance that it doesn’t !

Ustica is similarly unexposed – but wasn’t quite so impressive when winning his maiden: whilst Crack away Jack would doubtless laugh at them all, if returning anywhere near peak form.

Consequently, whilst I was half tempted to again put up Araldur EW, I think there is just too much guess work involved.

I would expect him to run his usual honest race – and that could easily see him finishing second or third – however, it could equally see him finishing fourth or fifth…

With regard to the 3 unknowns in the race, then the market near the off, will likely give a good indication of their fortunes…

Finally, I think Greywell Boy is the one to beat in the handicap chase at 4:35.

However I resisted the 3/1 early, so I’m unlikely to be sucked in by the 9/4 available now.

In truth, his case isn’t water tight in what is quite a trappy looking contest.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.