Daily write-up - Mar 3rd

There are NH meetings this afternoon at Exeter and Newcastle.

The Newcastle card offers little of interest – but things are a bit better at Exeter.

There are 3 races worthy of consideration there – though I only managed to find one horse that I could tip.

Hopefully he will run well – and set us up nicely for next week.

Talking of which…

Obviously a lot of my energy at the moment is going into preparation for the Cheltenham festival.

On Thursday, the 5 day declarations will be released for the opening day of the meting.

By that time, most of the bookmakers will be offering NRNB on all races (last season it was just Ladbrokes who delayed until the Saturday).

I’ll therefore look to start getting out a few early tips, from that point onwards.

I won’t be going mad – but it’s always nice to get a little ahead of the game, because the festival days themselves are so busy.

I’ll therefore open the tipping window for Cheltenham at 6:00 each evening, from Thursday onwards (through to the following Thursday).

From Monday onwards, it will also be opened at 1:00 in the afternoon.

I will also look to issue tips early in the morning on each of the days.

Hopefully that will give me sufficient opportunity to get out all the tips I want to !

Anyway, that’s the future – I’ve got today to deal with first.

Here’s the rationale for the tip – plus a few other thoughts…

Exeter

3:30

In some respects, the case for Coolking this afternoon, is very straightforward…

He was an honourable second in this race 12 months ago – and gets to run today, from a mark 12lb lower.

Ofcourse, as is always the case with horses dropping down the handicap, there is good reason why he is running from a lower mark.

He’s actually only run 3 times since the race last year – but he’s run deplorably on each occasion.

In truth, even the drop in his mark wouldn’t be enough to tempt me in – if it weren’t for one thing…

Coolking gets to run for a new trainer today – Chris Gordon.

Now, I’ve got no issue with his old trainer (Lawney Hill) but it’s surprising how often a change of scenery causes an old horse to perk up.

I’m no expert on the intricacies of training a race horse – but clearly different trainers do things in different ways – and certain horses will respond better to the methods of some, than they do to those of others.

We know that Coolking has the natural ability to be competitive off todays mark – and we know that he will act well over the course and distance.

All aids (the tongue tie and cheek pieces ) are dispensed with today – so a back to basics approach is evidently being adopted – and I’ve no issue with that.

Simply, this is a bet on whether Chris Gordon has been able to get the horse to back to its best.

Clearly you want a price in such circumstances, but I felt that 16/1 (or even 14/1), justified a small risk…

In terms of dangers, then Safran de Cotte is handicapped to win – if he consents to put his best foot forward. The issue with him, is that I can’t see any reason why he should perform better today than he has been doing in his recent runs (nothing has changed).

Viking Blond is another who is handicapped to win - but he would best be described as ‘enigmatic’.

If one of the above 3 perform as they can, I think they will likely come home in front – if all 3 perform as they have been doing lately, it becomes a much more difficult race to call and one which the market will most likely shed light on.

0.25pt win Coolking 14/1

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, I was hoping to tip Somemothersdohavem.

He’s another one who is plunging down the handicap – mainly because he’s shown no aptitude for chasing.

He reverted back to hurdles last time out and performed much better.

My slight concern with him is that his experience chasing may have soured him a little. I don’t have a lot of evidence to back that up – just a feeling.

If it’s not, and if he’s able to perform at the level he was operating at 12 months ago, I think he is the one to beat today.

I can see 2 main dangers in the race: Brave Deed and Virtuose du Chenet.

The former is very lightly raced for a 9 year old – and showed distinct promise last time out on his second run back from a long absence.

Whilst the latter has shown nothing in 2 runs in the UK – but was clearly quite well thought of when he came over here - and has been dropped 8lb for those runs and given a long break as well.

With a tongue tie and cheek pieces applied, he could easily leave his previous form behind today.

That said, all 3 horses comes with risks – and I see limited margin in any of their prices (relative to those risks).

The final race I looked at, was the novice handicap chase at 4:00 - however, I struggled to find any kind of an angle into it…

I would be prepared to oppose Always Bold – but that was about it !
Buckhorn Tom could take a bit of pegging back if he gets an uncontested lead: whilst Red Devil Lads is handicapped to win – if his jumping improves.

Silvergrove is the solid option – but has been put in as favourite: whilst Barton Heather is the potential improver – but is weak in the betting (and you would want to see market confidence).

On balance, a race best filed under ‘too difficult’ !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Exeter 3:30 Coolking 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Exeter 3:00 Somemothersdohaveme (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None