Daily write-up - Mar 19th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Ludlow and Chepstow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

I thought it was fascinating yesterday, to note the difference in conditions at the 2 tracks where they raced…

Spring seemed to have arrived at Haydock, where the ground was riding relatively quick; whilst Warwick still seemed stuck in the deep mid winter, with very heavy underfoot conditions  (it was the same situation with Kempton and Uttoxeter on Saturday).

Needless to say, completely different horses were winning/running well at the 2 venues and it just reminded me how important it is to make sure you’ve got a good feel for track conditions before trying to assess a race at this time of the year.

I don’t think the conditions are quite so clear-cut at any of today meetings, though my expectation is that the ground will be reasonably decent at all 3 meetings.

If the ground was pushing to an extreme, I might have been able to find more tips (it tends to enable you to eliminate some of the runners), but as it is, I’ve ended up with just the one.

That said, I am very hopeful of a result.

Here’s my rationale – and a few other thoughts on the day.

Ludlow

5:10

Stephanie Francis is a mare with a couple of specific requirements.

She needs decent ground – and she needs to be fresh: In those circumstances, she is capable of very decent form.

She demonstrated that on her seasonal debut at Worcester back in October, when she dotted up from a field that included the now 130 rated As De Mee.

The ground had gone against her the next time she ran at Haydock, and she was well beaten. However, she was barely given a race that day and repaid that kindness by going close on her next run, which was over todays course and distance.

She just lost out in a driving finish that day. However, the horse that beat her, Pass The Time, subsequently went on to run sixth in the mares race at the Cheltenham festival – and even prior to that run, was rated 12lb higher than when winning at Ludlow.

On her most recent run at Musselburgh, the ground once more went against Stephanie Francis, so again, I think that run can effectively be ignored…

She has been given over 2 months to recover from it – and also to dodge the worse of the winter ground.

I therefore expect her to turn up today, ready to run for her life.

Furthermore, based on her runs at Worcester and Ludlow, I think there is every reason for thinking she is a well handicapped mare (my feeling is that she could have 10lb in hand of her mark); whilst we know that todays course and distance suit her just fine.

In short, she has ticks in virtually every box – and is therefore quite a strong fancy.

In terms of opponents, then it is relatively easy to turn this into a 4 horse race (eliminating the top one and the bottom two).

The one I fear most, is Faerie Reel, with AP in the saddle.
She won well at Doncaster last time and could be progressive.

However, she struck me as more of a galloper than a horse with a turn of foot, so I’m hoping that Nick Skelton will track her to the last and then Stephanie Francis will leave her for dead with a turn of foot up the run in.
That’s the theory, anyway 

0.5pt win Stephanie Francis 7/2

In the opener on the card, I thought I might be interested in Set The Trend – but I didn’t expect him to be a 3/1 shot…

A decent flat horse, he made his debut over hurdles at Doncaster in November and ran a fair enough race, despite ultimately only finishing seventh.

I didn’t expect him to be so prominent in the market today on the back of that run (and an absence), but clearly people are expecting him to reproduce his flat form (which would see him go very close).

I guess I wouldn’t want to take him on – but there are 4 or 5 horses in the race with a chance, so I wouldn’t be rushing to back him at too short a price, either.

There’s a nice little handicap chase off a 4:05, in which Mountain King is a short priced favourite (7/4).

I can understand him being favourite (he has strong connections and potential) – but I think he is beatable today. I don’t think that Ludlows sharp 2 miles is what he wants and with plenty of pace in the race, I could see him getting taken off his feet.

Arkaim and Swaledale Lad both like to race prominently – and there is a chance that one of them will get the run of the race.

However, Kudu Country is the one that interests me most.

He is tactically versatile – and as he showed last time out, he is in good form.

He’s not badly handicapped and if Paul Moloney can settle him in behind the pace, I could see him pouncing down the home straight.

6/1 is a fair enough price – and he was quite tempting…

Chepstow

In the handicap hurdle at 2:30, the top 3 in the betting look the ones to concentrate on…

The favourite, It’s a Long Road, is most likely to run his race and is the winner by default – but I would be overly surprised to see either Dashaway or Ballyknock Lad improve past him on their handicap debuts…

Of the two, I would be slightly more interested in the latter, who is also stepping up half a mile in trip – and who can be backed at a bigger price (6/1)

I am quite drawn to Solstice Star in the handicap hurdle at 3:05 – but just can’t quite bring myself to tip him…

This is a weak race – and based on his bumper efforts, Solstice Star could be thrown in today, off a mark of 100.

However, his last two runs over hurdles have been shocking – and I’ve no idea how the official handicapper decided on that mark for him.

I would expect the market to tell the tale.

The horse is currently an easy 10/1 shot. If it is backed down to half that price at the off, it will probably win - if it drifts at all, it won’t.

Anywhere between those two points, you pay your money, you make your choice !!

The handicap chase at 3:40 could have been interesting, if the ground had been riding a bit softer.

In that case, I would have been pretty keen on Waldorf Salad.

In truth, I think he might get away with it anyway, as I would see Chepstow as a much more suitable track for him that Ludlow (where he disappointed last time).

However, I would be guessing over his ability to handle the ground - and I’m not prepared to do that at 4/1.

The other one in the race that really interests me, is Buachaill Alainn.

He has been horribly out of form this season – but as a consequence, is potentially very well handicapped.

He also gets a tongue tie applied for the first time today.

If that has the desired effect, he could waltz home alone this afternoon…

Clonmel

There’s not too much of interest at Clonmel – but there are a couple of former tips running, who are worth a brief mention…

In the opening beginners chase Third Opinion must have a decent chance of breaking his duck, in what is a very weak race.
I’ve tipped him the last twice he has run – and on both occasions, it was in much stronger races than todays

He ran very well on this first occasion – but nowhere near as well on the second.

The issue is getting the horse to settle (not his jumping).

He has a change of jockey today, which  might help.

Ideally I would like to see him given his head – but I don’t know whether that will happen.

He is far too risky to consider tipping at 2/1 – but if things pan out right for him he could easily be crossing the line as the others are jumping the final fence !

The other one worthy of interest, is Mollys Affair, who runs in the handicap hurdle at 5:05.

I tipped her last season and she ran very well until falling at the final flight.

She races off a mark 7lb lower today, so must have every chance from a handicapping perspective.

However, I’m not entirely convinced about the step up in trip – and she has a long absence to overcome.
I could see her running well – but I suspect she might fade out of things late on…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ludlow 5:10 Stephanie Frances 0.5pt win 7/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Ludlow 2:20 Set the Trend (P )

Ludlow 4:05 Kudu Country (O )

Chepstow 2:30 Ballyknock Lad (S )

Chepstow 3:05 Solstice Star (S )

Chepstow 3:40 Waldorf Salad (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None