Daily write-up - Mar 1st

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Huntingdon and Sedgefield in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

With Cheltenham just over a week away, I have very limited expectations for the next few days.

If the past couple of weeks are anything to go by, opportunities are likely to be thin on the ground – and I have no intention of forcing them.

That said, in my normal diligent way, I will keep an eye out for any opportunities – and if something presents itself, I’ll be ready to strike.

There was precious little of interest at either Huntingdon or Sedgefield – but I hope I might have found a gem at Navan.

Here is my rationale…

Navan

3:20

It’s only a couple of weeks ago since I tipped the 14 year old Nozic (and indeed, I tried to tip him again, as recently as last Monday) – and as if to prove that I see age as no barrier to success, I’m very keen on the chances of another teenager today: Lion Ne Bernai.

In fairness, he’s only 13 -  so a full year younger than Nozic !

And he’s running over hurdles, so it shouldn’t be quite so much effort for him to get his old legs over the obstacles

Joking aside, it is actually because he’s running over hurdles that I am so keen on him…

Lion Ne Bernai is currently rated 135 over fences – and ran right up to that rating on his last outing, just a month ago.

That was in a conditions chase at Fairyhouse, but the form looks very solid, with him finishing second in a race where all but one of the field were rated 130 plus.

Yet today, over hurdles he gets to run off a mark of 95 – that’s a full 40lb below his chase rating, which is completely ridiculous.

The reason there is such an anomaly, is because Lion Ne Bernais gets to retain the hurdle rating that he achieved 6 seasons ago !

His form back then is completely irrelevant. He switched to fences 5 seasons ago, started to improve – and has maintain a high level of form in that discipline ever since.

Only once since he switched to fences, has Lion Ne Bernais run over hurdles, which was on his seasonal debut last season.

That was clearly a pipe opener for his upcoming campaign – yet he still ran huge race to finish fifth.

Off the same mark as he runs off today, that form alone would entitle him to strong consideration in today race.

However, the big difference today is that rather than him running to get himself cherry ripe, he is already operating at a peak – and that is a peak considerably higher than the one he is being asked to climb today !

There are a couple of other things that make me particularly sweet on his chances this afternoon:

Firstly, he likes to front run – and I see little competition for the lead.

Secondly, there only appear to be 3 or 4 serious rivals in opposition.

I guess one of them might also have 2 stone plus in hand of it’s mark – but we would be unlucky if that were the case.

In simple terms, this is a cracking bet.
I’ve staked it as I have because putting more than 0.5pt on a horse running in a small race in Ireland on a Sunday, seems morally wrong.
If you have no moral issues with such things, I wouldn’t dissuade you from topping up a bit.
I think he will win !

0.5pt win Lion Na Bernais 9/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

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Navan 3:20 Lion Ne Bernais 0.5pt win 9/2

 

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