Daily write-up - Mar 27th

There are a couple of NH meetings this afternoon: at Wetherby and Newcastle…

I had little in the way of expectations for the day, so I was pleasantly surprised to see that both are reasonable cards.

If I’d been feeling bold, I could probably have found 3 or 4 tips – but I’m happy to settle on the best one of the bunch…

The ground is again a bit of a concern: the suggestion is that it will be on the quick side – I’m hoping it won’t be too fast - but time alone will tell…

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and a few other thoughts…

Wetherby

3:55

Le Fin Bois caught my eye on his most recent outing, at Taunton.

That was in a class 3 handicap, over 2m4f, in the middle of January.

Le Fin Bois absolutely tanked his way through that race, until either the ground – or the distance – caught him out up the home straight.

He eventually came home 4^th – beaten 20 lengths - but I’m sure he is better than that result implies.

The handicapper took it at face value however, and dropped him 5lb.

That’s a total of 17lb he’s been dropped since he made his UK debut in the Fred Winter hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

Ofcourse, the handicapper may have got his initial mark completely wrong – however his French form looks decent enough – and I suspect it is more a case of Le Fin Bois taking a bit of time to adjust to life in the UK.

He runs off a mark of 120 today, which means he can just sneak into this class 4 race, with top weight.

Dickie Johnson goes to Wetherby for just the one ride: and he is the only horse that Tim Vaughan sends to the course.

Talking of Vaughan, his horses are now running much better, than they were when Le Fin Bois last ran, which I would see as another positive…

In terms of opposition, then this race is actually a little hotter than I would have liked…

I’m not too worried about the likes of Mad for Road and Knight in Purple. They are both exposed – and I would hope that Le Fin Bois can take care of them.

Of more concern, are the unexposed pair of Mr Burbidge and Arthurs Secret.

Both of those have as much potential as Le Fin Bois – though I also think that both have a bit more to prove…

Personally, I’ve saved my stake on Mr Burbidge. You can get 8/1 on BF and at that price, I would probably have 0.25pt on him. However, he’s a best price of 13/2 with the bookmakers…

Hopefully it will prove to be unnecessary insurance, as I hope to see Le Fin Bois settled in behind by Dickie – before pouncing jumping the last !

0.5pt win Le Fin Bois 13/2

In the previous race on the card, I got quite close to tipping Greenlaw…

I would have done at 5/1 – and possibly, if 4/1 had been more generally available.

However, he was that price with only 1 bookmaker, so realistically, you would have been taking 7/2…

I think that’s about right.
I would make him favourite to beat Vasco D’Ycy – and there is little else in the race that really frightens me.

The one exception would be Green Wizard.
His jumping can be hairy, so he’s not for the faint hearted. However a price of 14/1 probably under-estimates his ability, a little…

The other race of interest at Wetherby, is the handicap hurdle at 2:50…

At some point, Prince of Pirates will bounce back to form – and it could be today, in first time blinkers.

He will be running off a mark of 105 – a full 30lb lower than the mark he was successful from over fences 2 years ago.

That is quite a spectacular fall – and whilst his recent performances justify it – if the head gear has the desired effect, he clearly has plenty of scope from his existing mark…

He’s a general 14/1 shot at the moment – but I suspect he will get backed if he is going to bounce back to form…

Newcastle

The handicap hurdle at 4:15 is probably the high light of the Newcastle card – but it’s a tough race to unravel…

I was initially drawn to Emral Silk back going left handed - but I worry about the drop in trip for him…

There is the possibility that Pearl Castle will prove himself different class to his rivals - but there is also the possibility that he will need the run…

I wouldn’t rule out either Robbie or Lightening Rod, at big prices – but if forced to side with one, it would be Avidity.
He disappointed when favourite on his penultimate outing, but bounced back to form when the tongue tie was reapplied last time.

Provided the ground isn’t too quick, I think he will run a big race.

The previous race on the card (3:40) is just as trappy…

A case of sorts could be made for just about every runner.

I would normally side with an outsider in such a situation – and Orsippus looks the most interesting at a price.

However, ignoring price, I would probably go for And the Man.
He bounced back to form on his penultimate run and wasn’t definitely beaten when falling last time out.

If he can put in a clear round today, then he should go close…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:10, I would tentatively suggest Azure Glamour, on his handicap debut: whilst in the closing event on the card, the booking of Nico De Boinville for Purple Harry, really catches the eye.
That said both horses face huge fields and neither are at the kind of price where I would be tempted to take a risk…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Wetherby 3:55 Le Fin Bois 0.5pt win 13/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Wetherby 2:50 Prince of Pirates (S )

Wetherby 3:20 Greenlaw (P )

Newcastle 3:10 Azure Glamour (S )

Newcastle 3:40 And the Man (O )

Newcastle 4:15 Avidity (O )

Newcastle 5:25 Purple Harry (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None