Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham Day 4)

The final day of what has been a taxing Cheltenham festival.

Win, lose or draw, I need to think about how I handle Cheltenham next season.

My feeling is that I just try to do too much; with the extensive write-ups and tips in most of the races.

The is always a danger that things will get compromised because they just don’t fit – and I think that is maybe what has happened this time round.

I’ll mull it over in the closed season – I’ve still got today to try and recover things !

However, that’s not going to be easy, with the normal ultra competitive races - and the impact of the rain to consider.

Maybe not too surprisingly in the circumstances, I’ve backed off things a little bit today.

I always felt like yesterday was going to be the big day – but it ended disappointingly.

Today looks tough – and I see no need to go and chase things.

I’ve got a few tips on the day – plus my usual thoughts on all of the races.

It would be nice to at least finish the festival on a high.

Fingers crossed !

1:30

I’ve felt for a while that the Triumph hurdle is Peace and Cos to lose…

He has been hugely impressive in his two UK races to date – and his form has some substance as well.

On his UK debut, he simply toyed with Starchitect and that one subsequently ran much closer to Hargem, before finishing a decent fourth in Tuesdays Fred Winter.
Peace and Co then gave weight and a comfortable beating to a good yard stick in the shape of Karezak.

I also like the fact that 2 of his main rivals are from the same stable – yet Nicky Henderson seems quite clear about who is his number 1.

At 3/1, I think he is worth tipping – and hopefully most of you will get that price, or very close to it (William Hills actually went 4/1 for a little while at 8:30 this morning).

Of his opponents then Beltor and Petite Parisienne are potentially the 2 of most interest.

However, I suspect that the former will be better suited to a flat track (like Aintree); whilst I’m not sure the latter is quite good enough (even with the mares allowance).

In summary, Peace and Co looks an exceptional juvenile to me and I am very hopeful that he will take this race.

0.5pt win Peace and Co 3/1

2:05

This is another race where I was going to pull the trigger on a relatively short priced runner, but the overnight rain has dissuaded me from doing so.

Despite the 25 runners, I will be a little surprise if the winner comes from outside the top half dozen in the betting.
In fact, I suspect the race will go to either Quick Jack or The Game Changer.

Both look to have been layed out for the race – and I suspect that both have also got the requisite 10lb or so, in hand of their current marks.

At 10/1 I felt it was worth taking a chance on The Game Changer, but that was before the rain came.
He looks to have a definite preference for decent ground, so his appeal is lessened significantly now that the ground has gone soft.

I guess that should improve the case for Quick Jack – and it does to an extent.

However 7/1 is plenty short enough in a race where luck in running could well play a big part.

All things being equal, I will be surprised if he’s not there, or thereabouts – however, as we saw yesterday, you need a few points on the price to compensate for the ’lottery’ component of these big handicaps – and at 7/1, there really isn’t much slack.

2:40

Another race where it would have been easy enough to side with one of the market leaders.

Black Hercules represents the all conquering Mullins/Walsh combination and has long been viewed the ideal type for this race.

It therefore says much for the regard in which No More Heroes is held, that he is disputing favouritism with the Mullins runner – particularly as he was a big disappointment on his most recent run.

Apparently there were good reasons for that, and both his form prior to that run and his continued strength in the market, lead me to believe that he is the one to beat.

And he might prove difficult to beat – but I think it is worth taking him on with a couple of big priced runners…

The first of those is Tea for Two, who was as easy a winner of a grade 1 handicap as you will see all season, when he won the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton in January.

He won that day, by 16 lengths, easing up – and whilst he did it off a mark of just 134 it was still a mighty impressive performance by a novice against seasoned handicappers.

An odds on defeat next time out tempers enthusiasm a little – but that was in a 3 horse race and it is interesting to note that he was also beaten in a 4 horse race earlier in the season, whilst his form in big fields is exemplary.

The suggestion is that maybe he struggles to settle if there is no pace in a race – and the fitting of a first time hood today, backs up that theory.

He’s unproven at todays trip – and jockey Lizzie Kelly won’t be able to make use of her claim – but I still think he is worth a risk at a big price.

Similar comments apply to Shantou Bob, who can actually be backed at an even bigger price – 40/1 !

That price is just wrong, as on form he has a very similar chance to the likes of Fletchers Flyer and Defintly Red, and they are both half that price.

I guess that part of the reason why Shantou Bob is such a big price, is because he was disappointing last time out.

However a subsequent breathing operation suggests that connections know what was causing the problem.

Certainly if he can bounce back to his previous form, when a close second to Vyta Du Roc at Sandown, he could well be good enough to be involved at the finish.

0.125pt EW Tea for Two 33/1

0.125pt EW Shantou Bob 40/1

3:20

The 2015 Gold Cup looks a truly enthralling contest – but I’ve little idea about what is going to win it !

So much is going to depend on the actual state of the ground – plus how the race unfolds, it makes choosing a winner nearly impossible…

That said, I was half tempted to risk Silviniaco Conti.

On form, he is the best horse in the race by miles – and he is at the peak of his powers.

If he had not wobbled on the run in last season, than people would be falling over themselves to take half of the current 9/2 that is on offer – but he did…

Trainer Paul Nichols is adamant that he is a different horse this season – but it is difficult to believe it until you see it with your own eyes.

If he comes home first, I suspect we will all be wondering how we missed such an obvious winner !

Him aside, it is possible to make half a case for just about every other runner in the field – which is the problem !

The likes of Djakadam, Many Clouds and Road to Riches could easily improve sufficiently to take the prize; whilst if the ground comes up really soft, I wouldn’t be backing against Carlingford Loch giving the champ an unbelievable Cheltenham send off.

Personally, I struggle to see either of the ex winners repeating today.

I don’t particularly rate Lord Windermere – and now the ground has gone against him, I struggle to see him recapturing his crown.
Bobsworth could be a little more interesting, but he has appeared woefully short of pace the last few times we have seen him. They don’t go on forever – and he’s had a tough career.

The one that interests me most, is the novice Coneygree.

People go on about novices not winning a Gold Cup, but in my opinion, that is nonsense.

Firstly, not many try: and secondly, it all depends on the novice (and the opposition !).

Coneygree jumps like a seasoned handicapper – and his style of racing means that it is irrelevant what is following him.

The question is simply, whether he is good enough…

I’m honestly not sure that he quite is – but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him leading into the home straight, with most of the field toiling behind.

I suspect that one or two will pick him off close home – but a placing must be a real possibility.

Of the remaining few, then I would give both Sam Winner and Houblon Des Obeaux chances, if the ground came up really soft…

Head on the block, I would go for Carlingford Loch and AP to get a famous final Gold cup win.

4:00

Salsify is already a dual winner of this race: first in 2012 when he beat Chapoturgeon; and then a year later, when he took advantage Oscar Delta unshipping his rider, on the run in.

He was absent last year, when the race was won by Tammys Hill – a horse who always tended to come up a little bit short, when faced with a peak form Salsify.

In short, Salsify and Tammys Hill have dominated this race for the past 3 seasons – and provided he is back to his best, then I think Salsify has a good chance of reclaiming his crown this time around.

Whether he will be back to his best, is I guess, a cause of some concern…

He had been off the course for over 12 months prior to running in a hunter chase at Leopardstown last month.

That was a very hot event and the eventual winner, Prince De Beauchene would likely be a short priced favourite if he was able to run in todays race (he isn’t qualified to do so).

Salsify travelled with his usual menace through that race and briefly looked like he might make a successful return, when he took up the running down the back straight.

However, lack of peak fitness eventually caught him out and he was passed by the eventual winner – and runner-up, On the Fringe - on the run to the last.

He was eased after the last and ultimately finished fourth – but I saw enough to think that he is still capable of performing to a very high level.

If that is the case, then I would expect Salsify to be able to take care of On The Fringe – as like Tammys Hill, he is a horse than has struggled to contain a peak form Salsify in the past.

The main danger could therefore be Paint the Clouds. He is relatively unexposed as a Hunter Chaser – and has plenty of class.

However, he has not yet met a rival as good as Salsify, so today will really test his mettle.

Others worthy of mention include Current Event, Carsontown Boy and Muirhead.
All three are very capable - particularly the latter who was classy enough to finish fifth in a Champion hurdle, a few years back and couldn’t have better connections in the shape of Stewart Crawford and Derek O Connor.

0.5pt win Salsify 10/1

4:40

My intention last week, was to tip On Tour in this. However, both the rain and the detection of some potentially very well handicapped horses, has put me off him…

When I scanned through the race yesterday, my eye was drawn to the Willie Mullins trained McKinley.

He won a grade 1 hurdle at Naas in January, before running fifth in the Deloitte hurdle at Leopardstown the following month.

How he’s managed to get in today off a mark of just 136, I’ve no idea – and he has the Professional conditional, Johnny Burke in the saddle.

With those kind of credentials I expected him to be favourite – but he’s actually only third choice from the Willie Mullins stable !

Second choice, Killultagh Vic, finished in front of Wednesdays Neptune winner Windsor Park, the last time he ran – and he gets a mark of 131 today !

Bizarrely, the form of the apparent stable first string, Roi de Francs, isn’t as impressive – and he is running off a higher mark.

I’ll be a little surprised if one of the 3 doesn’t manage to win the race for Willie Mullins, the question is, which one...?

Reading trainer comments, Mullins has some concerns about the jumping of Killultagh Vic – that’s enough to put me off him, in such a big field.

Similarly, the price of Roi de Francs is enough to put me off him.

By a process of elimination, McKinley therefore becomes the pick !
Being the owner/trainer third string didn’t stop him from winning his Grade 1 – so being an owner/stable second string will hopefully not hinder him today !

Of the others, then the Paul Nichols trained Le Mercury and the Jonjo O’Neill trained Forthefunofit - both look very interesting, unexposed, sorts – though they don’t look as well handicapped as the Irish horses.

0.25pt win McKinley 12/1

5:15

The final race of the meeting – and the betting public are likely to be all over APs last ever festival ride, Ned Buntline.

He was runner up in this race 12 months ago, when given an exaggerated Carberry waiting ride - and off a mark just 4lb higher today, he obviously has a decent chance.

However, he has only run twice since last season – with just one run coming this season (when unplaced over hurdles).
If this has been the plan for 12 months, then he may very well collect  - but he has always been a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse – and that would worry me, when he has to face the Cheltenham hill…

The hill won’t worry Ted Veale. He absolutely gobbled it up, when winning the County hurdle at the festival 2 seasons ago – however the fences might !

He really hasn’t looked a natural over them – but there can be little doubt that he remains handicapped to do some damage, if he can get round safely.

Clearly that has to be a worry in a big field like today’s – but I think that odds of 14/1 provide sufficient compensation for that.

The other one I want onside is Grumeti.
Like Ted Veale, he’s so far not proved as good over fences as he was over hurdles – but in his case, it is not his jumping that has let him down.

He has actually jumped pretty well in his 4 chase starts to date – and has been mixing it in pretty exalted company.

The drop to handicaps today – plus the application of first time blinkers – looks an interesting move.

Again, he comes with risks, but a mark of 141 about a horse rated 153 over hurdles, at his peak, suggests he has plenty of scope to run a big race, if things work out well for him.

0.25pt win Ted Veale 14/1

0.125pt EW Grumeti 25/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:30 Peace and Co 0.5pt win 3/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Tea for Two 0.125pt EW 33/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Shantou Bob 0.125pt EW 40/1

Cheltenham 4:00 Salsify 0.5pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 4:40 McKinley 0.25pt win 12/1

Cheltenham 5:15 Ted Veale 0.25pt win 14/1

Cheltenham 5:15 Grumeti 0.125pt EW 25/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 2:05 Quick Jack (P )

Cheltenham 3:20 Carlingford Lough (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Previous TVB Tips

 

2:05 Sempre Medici, Waxies Dargle

3:20 Home Farm

4:40 Peckhamecho

5:15 Bellenos