Daily write-up - Mar 11th (Cheltenham Day 2)

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival – and things aren’t looking much easier !

That said I don’t envisage quite the Mullins domination of yesterday, so hopefully that will give everyone a slightly better chance…

It’s a little concerning to see a band of heavy rain forecast to hit the course some time this afternoon.

Ofcourse precisely when and precisely how much is anyones guess – as is the impact it will have on the ground.

I guess nobody said it was easy…

The prospect of a going change is certainly making me nervous about issuing any tips for later in the week.
Both Rajdhani Express and Salsify have a preference for decent ground, so I’m hoping there won’t be too much of the wet stuff.

Anyway, that’s out of my hands.

I don’t expect the ground to ride much different today, from yesterday – for the first few races at least…

Hopefully we can get the day sorted before the rain comes along

Here are my thoughts on the days 7 races…

1:30

I was tempted to put up Windsor Park in this, but I’ve resisted…

My feeling is that the race is most likely to go to an Irish horse – but it’s not easy to choose between the 3 market principals.

With the field much smaller than expected, there is a chance that Ruby will be able to dictate things on board Nichols Canyon, as he did when winning the Deloitte hurdle.

Certainly if he gets an uncontested lead, as he did on Faugheen yesterday, I suspect he outcome will be the same.

Whatever, I suspect the race will be won – and lost – by jockey tactics, which makes betting in it fraught with danger.

If there was one at a big price that I thought had a chance, then I might take a risk.

Best of Burden and Orbo ab Chao are the 2 possibles – but I suspect that they haven’t got the quality of the Irish challengers.

Consequently, it has become a ‘no tip’ race.

If Ruby manages to manipulate things up front, I think he can take it on Nichols Canyon; if he it doesn’t work out that way, I suspect either Outlander or Windsor Park will stay on up the hill to claim the prize.

Not too much to get excited about, either way…

2:05

There is another surprisingly small field assembled for the RSA chase.

A few NRNB bets struck on the race last week, could have put us in a strong position (oh, for the benefit of hindsight !).

A bit like the previous race, this looks very tight – but I’m not so sure that Don Poli deserves to be quite such a short priced favourite.

Don’t get me wrong, I do rate him – however, I think 2/1 is very short in such a trappy contest.

It should be remembered that Willie Mullins was favouring running him in the 4 miler – so he clearly has some reservations about the horses class.

The one that I think represents the best value in the race, is Southfields Theatre.

He finished an agonising second in the Pertemps final last season, off a mark off a mark of 147 – which demonstrated both his class and liking for Cheltenham.

His switch to fences hasn’t gone without hiccup – but the has still managed to win 3 of his 4 outings over fences, demonstrating a sound jumping technique on each occasion.

Todays test of 3 miles on decent ground, is precisely what he wants – and I think he sets a decent standard.

Of the others, then I just can’t have Kings Palace – even though he could well get an uncontested lead. The memory of how he faded late on in last years Albert Bartlett remains clear in the mind.

I think that The Young Master and If in Doubt both have good chances – and at the prices, I was half tempted to save on the latter.

However, his jumping has looked quite precarious at times – and he did finished well adrift of Southfield Theatre at last years festival.

In summary, I think Southfield Theatre has a good chance – and his price of 15/2 is quite generous.

0.5pt win Southfield Theatre 15/2

2:40

I’ve had my eye on Taglietelle for this race for quite a few weeks now…

I read that Gordon Elliot was targeting him at the race – and when he ‘appeared’ in a Charity race at the end of the Leopardstown card a few weeks back, that sealed the deal for me…

Officially, Taglietelle last ran back in November, when he finished last of 4 behind Plinth.

However, in reality his latest run was actually when hacking up a few weeks ago.

In fairness, that was a race he should have won, as he was a very short priced favourite. But he did duly bolt up – proving his well being to all those who were aware of it (I only know because the Sporting life carried the result on the day – it wasn’t in the Racing Post).

Ignoring the ‘cloak and daggers’ stuff (which isn’t easy with Elliot !), then the case for Taglietelle probably rests on his victory in a conditions race run at Punchestown in October.

He beat Art of Payroll and Orgilgo Bay that day – showing good stamina reserves to run than down close home. The suggestion that day, was that he would relish todays step up in trip.

There is no doubt he is a risky one – but I think there are enough subtle signs to warrant getting him on side at a fair price.

The other one I’m interested in, is far more straightforward.

Del ‘Arca finished fifth in this race 12 months when just a 5 year old – and in his first season with David Pipe.

He is ruining off a 4lb higher mark today – but his extra maturity and experience should off set that.

Most interesting however, is the application of first time blinkers today.

We see time and again how big an impact the application of head gear can have on a horse – and it doesn’t need to have a massive positive impact on Dell ‘Arca for him to go very close today.

Needless to say, in a race such as this, it is possible to make decent cases for a number of the runners.

However, I think we are on a couple of live ones at good prices – lets hope one of them can come home first.

0.25pt win Tagliettelle 16/1

0.125pt EW Dell ‘Arca 25/1

3:20

As with the Champion hurdle yesterday, I just can’t find an acceptable angle into the Champion chase…

The horse I would like to tip - and that I want to see win - is Sprinter Sacre.

He is the best horse I have ever seen and at his peak, he would destroy todays field.

However, he has been beset by health problems over the past 18 months and whether he is at his peak today (or indeed will ever reach it again), is anyones guess…
If he is, then 7/2 would be the bet of the decade – but if he is, then I honestly don’t think 7/2 would be available…

His presence in the race, almost makes it a ‘no bet ‘ race in it’s own right – but even without him, things aren’t much easier !

Whilst he’s not encountered the same scale of issue as Sprinter Sacre, the preparation of reigning champion Sire de Grugy has hardly gone smoothly.

He was off the course with a hip injury for 10 months prior to unseating on his belated seasonal debut at Newbury last month.

He was impressive at Chepstow 2 weeks later (just 3 weeks ago) – but that hardly strikes me as the ideal build up for a Championship race.

If Sprinter Sacre isn’t at his peak, he might be still be good enough to get away with it – but equally he might not.

Form horse this season, is Dodging Bullets. He has already won 2 grade 1 chases and looked something of a reformed character.

However, I struggle to see him as a Champion chaser.
Similar comments apply to his stable mate, the enigmatic Mr Mole; whilst I’m just not convinced that Champagne Fever is quick enough to win a Champion chase.

I put up Simply Ned on the ante-post blog – and he could certainly sneak into the frame if enough of his rivals under-perform.

However, like Dodging Bullets, I don’t really see him as a Champion chaser.

So there you have it – reasons why non of the main protagonists can win !

I don’t fancy any of the outsiders to cause a surprise either, so we could be in for an interesting race !

I’ll be cheering for Sprinter Sacre myself – but more in hope than expectation.

If the old fire isn’t still burning, then hopefully Sire De Grugy will be able to retain his crown.

4:00

With no Balthazaar King in the line up, this looks a very weak renewal of the race.

In fact, so much so, that I initially felt it was ripe for a turn up.

However, having trawled through all of the less fancied runners, I can report that they are less fancied for good reasons !

The 2 of potentially most interest are Dogora and Rivage D’or (both, mainly because of connections). However, I just can’t believe that the former will get the trip; whilst it would take an act of faith to support the latter !

Back to the head of the market then…

With stamina concerns over Quantitativeeasing, the 3 to concentrate on appear to be Any Currency, Duke of Lukka and Sire Collonges.

I also have stamina worried about Duke of Lukka – which leave me with 2.

Sire Collonges and Any Currency have met a few times over this course and the form book is pretty adamant that Sire Colonges is the one to be with.

On his most recent run, he finished just over 2 length ahead of Any Currency, when giving him 3lb. Today he receives 4lb from his rival…

That is because Any Currency won over course and distance on his most recent outing and was raised 9lb a consequence.

However, that doesn’t make it any more likely that he will beat Sire Collonges today…

There are 2 other factors that sway me towards Sire Collonges.

Firstly, as a 9 year old, he should be at his peak – and is 3 years younger than any Currency.

Also, he is a 15/2 shot whilst Any Currency is just 6/1.

I rest my case !

The potential fly in the ointment is the French raider, Toutancarmont.

It’s impossible to get a handle on his form, so I guess there is a chance that he could be different class. If that is the case, then I think we just have to accept it.

The logical bet is Sire Collognes.

0.5pt win Sire Collognes 15/2

4:40

This looks a bit of a minefield, and I suspect I could have half a dozen shots at it without finding the winner.

Consequently, it was difficult to know how best to play it, but I marked down Thunder Zone as the type for this race the last time he ran - and he’s been put in at a big enough price this afternoon, to warrant a minimal risk.

That race was the Red Mills trial at Gowran Park last month, in which he ran on late to claim an unlikely second place behind Kitten Rock.

That one finished an honourable sixth in yesterday champion hurdle, so the form certainly has some merit.

More than that however, I got the feeling that Thunder Zone was ridden with his handicap mark in mind and could have got closer to the winner, if that has been the plan.

As it is, the handicapper has given him a mark of 135, which seems about right, based on what he has actually achieved.

However, my hope is that his mark under-estimates his ability.
In fairness, that could be the case with quite a few in the field.

His stablemate and favourite, Hostile Fire certainly fits that description; as does second favourite Arabian Revolution.

All Yours and Zarib and two more that I considered; whilst at bigger prices, Baron Alco and Sebastian Beach, both catch the eye.

However, this is not a race in which I wanted to take too much of a risk, so I’ve settled on a minimal play on Thunder Zone.

0.25pt win Thunder Zone 20/1

5:15

I fully expect this race to be won by an Irish trained horse (in fact, I’ll be a little surprised if they don’t completely dominate).

More than that, I would say it’s around even money, that the winner will be trained by Willie Mullins (he’s trained 4 of the last 10 – and 8 of the last 18).

In fairness, he does train 7 of todays runners (out of 24) – so he certainly has the ammunition to attack the race.

Ofcourse, even if he does manage to saddle the first home, the challenge of identifying which one, still remains…

The market makes Bordini, ridden by his son Patrick, the most likely – but I suspect there is a fair bit of guesswork involved.

More interesting to me, is the Ruby Walsh ridden Bellshill.

Like Bordini, he has run in two bumpers – and whilst he was beaten in the second of them, I think that loss enhanced his chances today, rather than diminished them.

His defeat was at the hands of one of today rivals, Virgil.

That one was well fancied for this race last year, when he finished fifth to his stable companion, Silver Concorde.
Bellshill effectively tried to give him 4lb on his most recent outing – and was beaten a length.
That is very good bumper form and he has a real chance this afternoon, based on it.

Ofcourse, having Ruby take over in the saddle won’t harm his prospects either – and whilst it’s not really relevant that Ruby won this very race for the same owner on a stable second string 2 years ago (Briars Hill), it is non the less quite interesting…

In terms of dangers, then I would respect Virgil – but would probably nominate the Gordon  Elliot trained General Principal as the one I fear most.

He is the chosen Gigginstown mount (from two) of Bryan Cooper and was hugely impressive in winning his only bumper to date.

It’s impossible to evaluate that form, but I suspect it could be decent.

I was half tempted to split stakes across the pair – but in another race where there is such a lot of guesswork, I figured it was best to keep stakes to an absolute minimum.

0.25pt win Bellshill 16/1

  

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 2:05 Southfields Theatre 0.5pt win 15/2

Cheltenham 2:40 Taglietelle 0.25pt win 16/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Dell ‘Arca 0.125pt EW 16/1

Cheltenham 4:00 Sire Collonges 0.5pt win 15/2

Cheltenham 4:40 Thunder Zone 0.25pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 5:15 Bellshill 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:30 Windsor Park (C )

Cheltenham 3:15 Sprinter Sacre (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Previous TVB Tips

 

1:30 Anteros, Ordo Ab Chao

3:20 Somersby