Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham Day 3)

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

When I initially assessed all of the races last week, today was the day I really liked the look of…

I wouldn’t go so far as to say it is make or break day – but I always felt it was the day on which we would have our best chances of success.

In truth, a lot will depend on the ground.

The action switches to the new course today, so there is a bit of unknown. However, I’m hoping it will be just as quick as it has been on the first two days.

Certainly, my main fancies for the day would prefer decent ground.

Clearly things haven’t gone great so far at the meeting so far. However that is always a risk at Cheltenham.

I’ve been generally playing at big odds – which means there will always be the possibility of a losing run.

To be fair, we’ve had 3 runners up at the meting – so I’ve not been a million miles away.

I could just do with one hitting the back of the net. Hopefully today will be the day !

Here are my thoughts:

1:30

It sounds a little rash, but I think this is effectively a 2 horse race: Vatour v Ptit Zig.

That’s not to say that I don’t rate the other runners – I do – I just feel that a quick 2m4f will be perfect for the 2 main protagonists and won’t suit the other fancied horses anywhere near as well.

Certainly, if the ground was riding soft I wouldn’t be as keen to dismiss the chances of Apache Stronghold and Vaseur Lido; but if it’s a speed test (which seems likely), then I just think that Vatour and Ptit Zig will have too much pace for the others.

In truth, both Vatour and Ptit Zig have the potential to be top class chasers.

Both were very good over hurdles (rated 158 and 157 respectively) and could be even better over fences.

In fact, Ptit Zig is already rated 159 over fences – and could well have improved on that mark if he had not fallen on his most recent run at Ascot.

That was in the Grade 1 Ascot chase and I felt he was travelling ever bit as well as the eventual winner, Balder Succes, when he clipped the top of a fence and took a novicey fall.

Up until that point his jumping had been exemplary – so hopefully he will have learnt his lesson !

Vatour doesn’t have a blemish free record over fences either. Whilst he didn’t fall, he made a serious mistake on his penultimate outing, which effectively cost him any chance of success.
Needless to say, neither horse can afford to make mistakes of that nature if they are to be successful today.

Choosing between two unexposed, potentially high class chasers isn’t easy – and I could well have got it wrong.

However the respective odds of 2/1 and 9/2 made it a relatively simple decision.

Outside the top 4 in the betting, then I did briefly consider Colour Squadron. I could see him being perked up by first time blinkers – but he would still have 10lb to make up on the principals to be competitive, so he could only ever have been a fancy for a place.

The other 3 runners are all useful – but they just aren’t in the same class as Vatour and Ptit Zig.
Hopefully the jumping of the big 2 will cut mustard, in which case I think we could be in for a real treat !

0.5pt win Ptit Zig 9/2

2:05

I was sorely tempted to put up one of the market leaders for this, but I couldn’t decide which one.

After the event it is going to be obvious that either Edeymi, Royal Encore, Brother Brian or Calls the Cops was some kind of certainty – but before the race (which is when it counts !), I can’t figure out which one it will be !

Head on the block, I would go for Edeymi - but there is a chance that he will struggle to get up the hill.

After turning the 4 of them round for a while in my head, I gave up and decided to go for a relative outsider EW.

In a race such as this, where the bookmakers pay 5 places, then an EW bet makes some sense.

I think Trustan Times is less likely to win than the 4 above mentioned – but more likely to place…

In fact, he placed in this race 12 months ago, when fourth behind Fingal Bay in a bunch finish.

He gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today, so the form book says he has to go close.

The naked eye would agree, as he has been modestly eye catching on both of his most recent runs…

An eighth place in the qualifier for this event, run at Musselburgh, didn’t flatter him – neither did a fifth place over fences in the Grand National trial at Haydock last moth.

He is better than both of those runs suggest – and has been dropped a few pounds by the handicapper as a result of them.

Consequently, he gets to run off mark of 142 today – the same mark from which he beat Holywell, when he was last successful over hurdles, a couple of season back. That one wnet on to win this very race later that season, showing what a good performance it was.

Ofcourse a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but Trustan Times has continued to operate at a relatively high level and I’m optimistic that he’ll be able to take advantage of t he handicappers leniency today, and go very close.

0.125pt EW Trustan Times 22/1

2:40

This is an absolutely cracking race and simply, I couldn’t let Wishfull Thinking go un tipped at 33/1…

Followers of the ante-post blog will know (to their cost!) that I put up Menorah in this race – and was pretty keen on his chances.

Unfortunately, he’s not running, with his connections feeling that they are better represented by Wishfull Thinking.

I would disagree – but have to acknowledge that they probably know best – and I can certainly see their logic in opting to run Wishfull Thinkngin in the race.

He is actually the best horse in the race, on official ratings – and whilst it is true that  he is possibly in decline and others are improving, it  is still not a situation that you will see with many 33/1 shots !

More than that, whilst he is 12 years old, he has probably been in the form of his life this season – recording tremendously impressive victories at both Aintree and Huntingdon.

Todays 2m5f trip on good ground will be perfect for him (he needs quick ground to perform at his best) – and trainer Philip Hobbs has stated that he has been trained specifically for this race.

Simply, he ticks too many boxes to be ignored at a massive price.

Ofcourse, there is the real possibility that one or two of his rivals will improve past him – though it’s not quite so easy to select which ones.

Don Cossack is the most obvious, but 2m5f on quick ground doesn’t strike me as the ideal test for him – and he did fall in last seasons RSA chase.

That probably means that Ma Filleule and Balder Succes are the biggest dangers – but neither one is bomb proof.

I could also see both Johns Spirit and Hidden Cyclone running big races. The former is a course specialist – whilst the latter ran massive race to finish second in this contest 12 months ago.

However, I don’t think any of them are that much better than a peak form Wishfull Thinking - and if Philip Hobbs has him tuned for the day – and he gets a little bit of luck, I can see him running a massive race.

0.25pt win Wishfull thinking 33/1

3:20

With the first and second from last year out of the way, this years renewal of the World hurdle looks up for grabs.

That probably explains why there is a bumper field of 17 – and why most of them can be given a chance !

I honestly wouldn’t put anyone off anything – but as you should know by now, when that happens, I tend to gravitate towards the outsiders in the field…

Possibly the most interesting of those is (or at least was - as he has been well backed) Abbissyal…

The eye is immediately drawn to him, not only because he represents the all conquering Mullins/Walsh combination , but also because he’s a 5 year old.

Simply, 5 year old never win the World huddle - does this Mullins guy know nothing ?!

And that’s what really draws you in…
Clearly Willie Mullins has forgotten more about racing than most of us will ever know – so if he thinks Abbyssial warrants a place in the race, then you have take notice.

More than that, when you look at the form of Abbyssial, it is actually very good.

He is the horse that fell in last seasons Triumph hurdle, resulting in Ruby breaking his arm.

However 2 months later, he was back on board when it won the champion 4 year old hurdle race at the Punchestown festival by 6 lengths.

On his next outing he was sent off even money favourite for a grade 1 event at Auteuil  but disappointed.

His only subsequent run resulted in another fall, this time in the Red Mills hurdle at Gowran last month. Abbyssial looked to be coming to win the race that day – and the race winner, Kitten Rock, ran a decent race in Tuesday Champion hurdle…

Clearly there are significant concerns over Abbyssial: his age, his ability to jump and his stamina, to name but 3. However, I suspect that he has the raw ability to be the best horse in todays field; whilst his connections are already the best around.

At 25/1, he has to be worth a risk…

The other one I want on side is At Fishers Cross…

He’s a horse that really doesn’t need much of an introduction.

He’s become massively frustrating over the past couple of seasons – but still had the raw ability to finish third in this race last season (well in front of Zarkandar).

That piece of form sets the standard for today race – and whilst he has done little to advance his chances so far this season, the application of first time blinkers today, looks an interesting move.
He’s always going to be a horse that I would rather take a big price about in a big race, rather than a small price about in a small race.

At 33/1 he is worth a tiny play.

0.25pt win Abbyssial 25/1

0.125pt win At Fishers Cross 33/1

4:00

I’m sure you’ve all been waiting for it, but if I’d been allowed just one bet this week, then Rajdhani Express in the Festival Plate would have been it.

The proviso would have been decent ground – but I can have no complaints on that score – so all we need now, is a bit of luck !

All this said, I don’t think he is a certainty. Certainties don’t exist in Cheltenham handicaps – however, granted luck, I think he is certain to run a huge race – and if he does that, he must have a fair chance of victory.

The reason I am so sweet on him, is because I think he is that old chestnut of a graded horse in a handicap.

As if to prove that point, he actually finished third in the Ryanair chase at last seasons festival.

He’s been a little disappointing this campaign and as a result his handicap mark has been dropped a few pounds.

However, the race he ran last time out convinced me that the fire still burns very bright.
That was in the Betbright chase at Kempton, over a trip too far and on ground too soft.

Despite that, Rajdhani tanked through the race, looking sure to be involved in the finish, until his stamina gave out on him over the last half mile.

Todays drop back in trip should be exactly what is required – and with Sam Waley Cohen able to claim his 3lb, a near Grade 1 horse gets to run off an effective mark of 149.

It will take a good one to beat him…

Unfortunately for us, there may be a good one in the race, in the shape on Monetaire.

I was hoping he would be saved for the Grand Annual tomorrow - but connections have opted for this race instead.

We were on him at the Cheltenham November meeting when he tried to take most of the fences with him and still finished third. He made no mistake next time out with a blood less win at Newbury.

Despite a significant rise in his mark, he could still be very well handicapped.

However the price on him has gone, so we’ll just have to hope that he tries to take a few fences with him again this afternoon !

Buywise would be another ironic winner, as I’ve tipped him a few times this season.

However, I’m less fearful of him as even his jockey seems to have serious reservations about his ability to jump (and that’s not what you want as a backer).

I did intend to just have the one selection in the race, but I simply can’t let Burn and Turn go untipped as well.

She’s a mare that I know very well – and the key to her is quick ground.
She got that at the Galway Plate in August and I think she really would have given Road to Riches something to think about over a slightly shorter trip.

As it was, she still put in a huge performance, to run the horse who is now second favourite for the Gold Cup, to 11 lengths in receipt of less than a stone.

That she suggests she is well handicapped off a mark of 139 today – and with conditions absolutely perfect for her, she’s another from whom I foresee a huge run.

0.25pt EW Rajdhani Express 20/1

0.125ptw EW Burn and Turn 20/1

4:40

The final race of what I’m hoping is going to be a good day…

As with all of the festival handicaps, it is ultra competitive, and I’ve taken 3 against the field, who I think are capable of running big races.

The first of those is the novice Grand Vision.
He has good festival form from a few years back when he finished third to Brindisi Breeze in the Albert Bartlett hurdle.

He also ran at last years festival when unplaced in the Pertemps final.

He switched his attention to chasing this season and whilst he has not managed to win in 4 tries, he has been a bit unlucky not to do so.

First time out at Haydock he was still swinging away, when coming down at the fourth last fence; whilst last time out at Warwick, he seemed to have the race in the bag until being overhauled close home, by Sego Success.

The handicapper has given him a mark of 137 over fences which is 5lb shy of the mark he achieved over hurdles. I think he has the ability to rate a fair bit higher.
My main concern with him today, is his stamina. He’s a free going sort and I just hope he isn’t allowed to do too much, too soon.

If he jockey can conserve his energy until the later part of the race, then I think he can go very close indeed.

Rather than put him up EW, I’ve decided to split stakes on a couple of savers.

The first is the Tom Taaffe trained Heaney.

He caught my eye when running well in last seasons Irish Grand National – and then again, on his most recent run behind Foxrock at Leopardstown in January.

He didn’t seem to stay the marathon trip on the first occasion – but found the trip too short last time.

Todays race splits the difference for him – which he should find ideal. He will also love the decent ground.

The other one I’m siding with is Clondaw Knight.
He ran really well last time out at Ascot, behind the well handicapped Caroles Destrier.

When I watched the race first time, I didn’t think he got home that day – so, based on that thought, I would have reservations about supporting him today.

However, it later transpired that he lost a shoe, so maybe there were mitigating circumstance.

He certainty seemed to stay OK on his previous outing at Wetherby, so at a decent price, I felt is was worth giving him the benefit of the doubt.

0.25pt win Grand Vision 20/1

0.125pt win Heaney 20/1

0.125pt win Clondaw Knight 18/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:30 Ptit Zig 0.5pt win 9/2

Cheltenham 2:05 Trustan Times 0.125pt EW 22/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Wishfull Thinking 0.25pt EW 33/1

Cheltenham 3:20 Abbyssial 0.25pt win 25/1

Cheltenham 3:20 At Fishers Cross 0.125pt win 33/1

Cheltenham 4:00 Rajdhani Express 0.25pt EW 20/1

Cheltenham 4:00 Burn and Turn 0.125pt EW 20/1

Cheltenham 4:40 Grand Vision 0.25pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 4:40 Heaney 0.125pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 4:40 Clondaw Knight 0.125pt win 18/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

None

 

Top Picks

 

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Previous TVB Tips

 

1:30 Apache Stronghold

2:05 Peckhamecho

2:40 Double Ross, Taquin Du Seuil, Foxrock

3:20 Jetson

4:00 Bally Legend, Buywise, De Boitron, French Opera, Monetaire

4:40 Ericht, Grand Vision, Grandads Horse