Daily write-up - Mar 25th

Newton Abbot host the only NH meeting of the day – spring must nearly be upon us…

It’s not a bad card, in fairness – and whilst I struggled to unravel the 2 handicap chases, I did think I might have an angle into the handicap hurdle at 3:40…

Un Bleu A L’aam is a horse I picked up on, earlier in the season, when he was a good winner at Taunton.

I expected him to follow up on his next outing at the same venue, but he was disappointing.

However that was over half a mile further and he didn’t appear to get home.

He is dropped back half a mile today – and has had a nice rest to freshen him up.

My feeling was that he could probably take care of the exposed horses in todays race (primarily Don’t Call me Oscar and Snowell) – and at 11/2 early this morning, I would have taken a chance on him.

However…

I would have always been worried about the unexposed horses in the race – and one of them, Kaptsadt, has come in for serious support.

Now I’ve no idea on the source of the support, but he is Listed placed on the flat in France, which suggests he could be very well handicapped off mark of just 95.

He has already run once in a handicap over hurdles and showed very little – however, Dickie Johnson is on board today and so it is reasonable to expect better.

If the market money is from people putting 2 and 2 together, then it could well come to nothing. However, if it is money connected to the horse, I could easily believe he will win today.

I’m always prepared to take a risk, at a price – but with there also being doubts over Un Bleu A L’aam, I opted not to get involved.
Based on what I’ve written, you may disagree – and in that case, I wouldn’t put you off supporting him…

The previous race on the card (3:10) looks pretty open to me - and no result would come as a major shock..

I’m not surprised by the support for the very well handicapped Golden Chieftain – but he is ‘well handicapped’ for a reason.

If he bounces back to form today, he will win – but that is a big ‘if’ based on recent runs…

My inclination is to gravitate to the longer priced horses in the market – and I think that both Farbreaga and Saroque have better chances than their odds imply.

That said, Farbreaga appears to prefer heavy ground (and whilst it will be soft, it might not be soft enough); whilst Saroque doesn’t look that well handicapped, and Venetias horses are hardly flying…

In summary, too tough a race to call with any confidence.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.