Daily write-up - Mar 20th

There are 2 NH meetings today, at Newbury and Sedgefield.

The Sedgefield card holds little appeal, but there are 3 or 4 interesting races at Newbury and it wasn’t too difficult to find a couple of tips.

Before I move on to the rationale, it is just worth reminding you all about the occasional email issues that I experience…

As I’m, sure most of you recall, there were a number of issues during the first few weeks of the season, but there have been less during the past few months – until the past week or so…

I know what causes the problem – it is whenever I change the main distribution list that I use – and I’ve had to change it a few times over the past couple of weeks.

As a result, my various emails haven’t been sent out to everyone, on every day.

Unfortunately, the problem is sporadic – and virtually impossible for me to detect.

Last weekend, the tips/write-up weren’t sent out to 2 people: yesterday, there were 5 who missed out on them (a different 5).

I try to be vigilant and check every email I send. But simply, I can’t check all 50+ names on every email I issue.

You should know the drill by now: notice at 8:00, followed by tips; followed by write-up; follow by review.

If you don’t receive any of these on any day – and I’ve not advised that they won’t be sent – please let me know asap.

I’ll look at the system again over the summer and see if I can possibly find a better way of handling things.

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Newbury

2:40

As much as anything, this is a bet that Nicky Henderson can get Shakalakboomboom back to his best (or at least close to it) today…

The horse was rated 149 in his prime – and was sent off 8/1 favourite for the 2012 Grand National, when running off that mark.

He ran a cracker as well, leading to the second last, before his stamina gave out…

Following that run, he spent a lot of time on the sidelines - and superficially at least, doesn’t seem have captured anything close to his old form, since he returned to action.

Certainly form figures of ‘0P0P0P’ since that run, suggest he is only a shadow of the horse he used to be.

The handicapper has certainly views thing that way – his mark has plummeted to 122, and simply if he retains any of his old ability, he will take the world of beating today.

The question is, does he..?

He has only run twice so far this season and I thought there were huge positives to take out of the first of those runs.

Apparently he had his wind overhauled during the summer and on his return to action in the Becher chase at Aintree, he was still well in contention and travelling nicely, rounding the home turn.
Once again however, his stamina gave way at that point - but he was still only beaten 25 lengths at the line and had plenty of good horses around him.

Todays race represents a significant drop in class and I think that if he can run to that level of form, he will take the beating.

Admittedly, his next run at Cheltenham was disappointing – however, he has been given a long break since then and I suspect he will appreciate todays much better ground.

As I say, I think this is really about whether Nicky Henderson can get the horse back to form.

If he can’t, then this might be the last time you see him on a racecourse – but if he can, then back on his home track, he is sufficiently well handicapped to dot up.

0.25pt win Shakalakaboomboom 10/1

3:45

This is an absolutely fascinating novice handicap chase, in which I could have been tempted by quite a few…

Back on decent ground, The Skyfarmer was the first one to catch my eye – but he has been well and truly found by the market and has far too much to prove to be considered at 4/1.

I could also have been interested in Wuff – but I worry about his ability to handle quick ground and again, his price of 4/1 doesn’t compensate sufficiently…

A chance of sorts can be given to most of the field, but I think it is worth taking a risk on an old friend at a huge price…

Tony Star did us a big favour when bolting up on his penultimate outing at Ludlow.

I fancied him that day, but was worried about his ability to handle the soft ground.

Well I needn’t have been concerned, as he dealt with it no problem and came home an easy winner.

The handicapper reacted by raising him 8lb – but he has already shown himself capable of being competitive off his new mark.

Admittedly he has never won off a mark as high as todays – but he has been placed off it – and odds of 5/1 about him finishing in the first 3 this afternoon, are just too big to resist.

On his most recent outing, Tony Star was sent off a well fancied 9/2 shot in a another fair race at Ludlow, but he unseated his jockey early.

That was a shame as we didn’t get chance to see whether he could cope with his new mark.

Tony Star has always been a talented animal – and I’m hopeful that the recent step up to 3 miles, will see him improve his level of form.

He has always been a horse that has performed best in the spring – and he has also shown a liking for Newbury.

He is a big price today, because he is more exposed than most of his rivals – and he also appears to be the second string of the Philip Hobbs stable.

However, if you look simply at the facts, I think he has a decent chance of at least placing – and I honestly don’t think it would be the biggest shock in the world if he were to come home in front.

Fingers crossed !

0.25pt EW Tony Star 25/1

I’m not too surprised to see that Minella Present has made his way to the head of the market for the handicap hurled at 4:20 – and I think he has a definite chance.

Certainly, the application of a first time hood and tongue tie - plus the booking of AP – suggest that connections mean business today.

If he is going to win, I suspect he will stay strong in the market, right to the off…

The other one worthy of consideration in the race, is Baby King.
He travelled really nicely last time out in a race at this track, won by Royal Guardsman.

I would expect him to turn the tables on the winner today, on 5lb better terms – and if Minella Present doesn’t bring his ‘A’ game, then I think he is the one to beat.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Newbury 2:40 Shakalakaboomboom 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Late

 

Newbury 3:45 Tony Star 0.25pt EW 25/1

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 4:20 Minella Present (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None