Daily write-up - Mar 28th

There are just 3 NH meeting this afternoon: at Stratford and Uttoxeter in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

It’s the first day of the flat turf season; the clocks go forward tomorrow, the daffodils are in full bloom - my work for the season is all but done…

Just 4 days of the TVB season remain – excluding Aintree – and they are all likely to be quite low key…

Based on the feedback I got from yesterday, it would appear that only one person with the service, backed Mr Burbidge as a saver to Le Fin Bois…

I’ve got to be honest and say that I find that surprising – and a little disappointing…

I felt that I made it as clear as I could have done, that he would have been a tip, if the price had been available – but the bookmakers weren’t playing ball and pushing the price out (there was a lot of money available to back at 9+ on BF).

I guess what it does, is make me question whether it is worth me putting in the hours to produce the write-ups…

I honestly think that the time I spend on those could be used to make the tipping more effective: either more profitable as it is now – or less profitable, but more accessible (ie. profitable at SP).

The way I operate now, the actual tip issuing is a relatively minor part of the service.

I have the windows where I check prices and issue – but that is it.
The rest of my efforts go into the write-up, trying to guide you guys towards profitable angles.

I feel that is best use of my time, because, as you all know, issuing prescriptive tips nowadays, is getting harder and harder (the prices crash – and you all get your accounts closed).

However, if the write-ups are generally being ignored, then there is clearly little point in me producing them…

I need to give some thought to what I do with the service for next season, but my feeling is that something needs to change.
I’ll cover the area more fully in the end of season report – and maybe also issue another questionnaire to gauge your views.

Anyway, on to today – the final Saturday of the season…

I’ve got to be honest, finding a tip wasn’t easy – but I managed to find a couple (and one of them seems quite popular !).

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Stratford

3:00

This looks quite a poor race and I felt it worth taking a small risk on an unexposed horse, at a price…

The market is made by On the Case, Lambs Cross and last years winner, Little Jimmy.

However, non of them are world beaters – and only On The Case could really be described as ‘progressive’, so the standard isn’t high…

Even so, I‘ve no idea whether Road to Freedom will be up to the job – but he is a totally unexposed chaser, with plenty of scope for improvement, so I think it is worth taking a chance on him.

He has only run under rules 6 times in his life, with his best performance coming when runner up in a novice hurdle at Towcester last May.

He’s a big scopey sort, so it was no surprise to see him immediately put over fences this season – and he made his debut in a hot race at Newbury, won by O Maonlai.

Unfortunately, he fell in that race – and it was far too early to say how he might have fared if he hadn’t.

Having said that, I liked the way he was moving – and jumping - until his departure…

His only subsequent run was at Uttoxeter – and that wasn’t anywhere near as good.

However, the ground that day was pretty desperate – and I think he just didn’t handle it (his good novice hurdle run at Towcester was on much better ground).

I’m hoping that today, back on decent ground – and against opposition that sits somewhere between limited and desperate, Road to Freedom will be able to show what he is capable of.

0.25pt win Road to Freedom 16/1

4:10

It’s almost the end of a long season for a number of horses and I think there are a few that you can put a line through in this particular race…

There are also a few who would require a bit of an act of faith to support – so I am happy enough to narrow it down to 3 or 4…

Maybe not too surprisingly, they all sit at the head of the market – and the one of those with least question marks against him is What a Good Night…

I first noticed him when he bolted up over todays course and distance, at the beginning of last season, when under the care of Nigel Twiston Davies…

He looked a horse destined to go places that day – but that just didn’t happen and the remainder of the season was a big disappointment.

He was transferred in to the stable of Dan Skelton over the summer and bolted up on his first start for him at Uttoxeter, back in October.

He should have followed up on his next outing at Southwell, but he fell the second last, when well clear. However, he made amends for that mishap when winning a decent event at Wetherby in November.

As he is a horse with a preference for decent ground, he was then put away for the winter months, with a view to a spring campaign.

He made his comeback at Ludlow at the back end of last month, but unfortunately lost his jockey when trying to avoid a faller at the fifth fence.

So, on to today…

Trip, ground and track are perfect – and the horse should be raring to go. In short, he has ticks in every box.

I don’t think it is possible to make such a good case for any of his rivals – though I am a little fearful of one or two…

Forgotten Gold is probably the one who worries me most – particularly with Jamie Bargery on board. He has been a bit disappointing this season – but has dropped significantly in the weights as a result. I could also see him appreciating the quicker ground. A big run would not come as a surprise !

Edmund Keen is a similar sort – though my feeling is that he would prefer slower ground…

I can see the case for In Fairness – but don’t think it is as compelling as that for What  a Good Night; whilst Auvergnat is clearly of some interest on his debut over fences in this country. If he gets to a silly price, he would also be worth a saver.

0.5pt win What a Good Night 9/2

The opener on the card looks an absolute minefield !
There are a number of horses who ‘could be anything’ – specifically, Lanceur, Maxie T and Bombadero.

I could see Oyster Shell outrunning his odds – if he consents to start: whilst he money for  Such a Legend looks very interesting…

I wouldn’t play in the race with any confidence, but if I did have a go, it would be with a straight bat on Street Entertainer. His run at Cheltenham back in November makes him just about the form choice – and in the circumstances, 20/1 is a big price…

Uttoxeter

There is little of interest at Uttoxeter, though our old friend, Manballandall, is worth of a quick mention in the 3:50 race…

We were on him on his penultimate run at Newbury, when he really should have won – but was passed close home.
He also finished second on his next run at Chepstow – but was more comfortably beaten that day…

The worry is that he might have missed his chance – but he probably sets the standard for the race, non the less.

I wouldn’t back him at 9/4 – but I wouldn’t oppose him either…

Navan

The high light of the Navan card is the return to action of Flemenstar, after 16 months on the sidelines…

If he is anywhere near his best, he will win today – it is as simple as that.

I suspect that connections will have left something to work on – with the big spring festivals, particularly Punchestown, on the horizon.

He therefore can’t be betting material – though the 7/2 on offer, is quite tempting !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Stratford 3:00 Road to Freedom 0.25pt win 16/1

Stratford 4:10 What a Good Night 0.5pt win 9/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Stratford 1:50 Street Entertainer (O )

Uttoxeter 3:20 Manballandall (P )

Navan 4:25 Flemenstar (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None