Daily write-up - Mar 29th

There are a couple of NH meetings this afternoon at Ascot and Limerick…

The Ascot card is very good indeed – however, the possibility of significant rain means that the going would have to be guessed and that just seems like a pointless risk to take…

Before I get on to my thoughts on the afternoon, just a few quick words of thanks to all of you who contacted me yesterday…

I was wrong in my statement that only 1 of you backed Mr Burbidge on Friday – it would appear that around 10 of you covered your bet on Le Fin Bois with him (one of you was even smart enough to do the forecast ).

Furthermore, I was also pleased to receive such a resounding vote of confidence for the write-ups in general…

I fully understand that you are all busy guys – and I don’t expect you all to read and act on every word, every day.

However, I would like to think that most of you do read/skim read the write-ups whenever you can – and your betting activity is duly influenced by them.

I know this isn’t the case for everyone – but my feeling is that it is the case for more than half of you – and I’m happy enough working with an audience of that size.

Ultimately, it is an individuals choice as to whether they take advantage of everything the service offers.

If people just want to follow the tips, then it is their choice/loss.

Provided the appetite to receive them exists amongst the majority, I will continue to produce them – and hopefully you will continue to profit from them…

On to today then…

Without the rain, I would have been very keen on Creevytennant in the handicap chase at 4:10.

He last ran in leg 2 of the veterans series at Exeter and the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well.

He will be relatively fresh today – and should get an uncontested lead.

On good ground I would be very keen on him.

However, he barely stays 3 miles – and he doesn’t like soft ground.

If you combine the two, I can see a scenario where he weakens up the home straight…

If the ground does get very soft, then Relax would have a very good chance; whilst without the rain, I would have been most fearful of Wayward Prince (assuming he can go close to repeating his last time out Doncaster form).

In the novice chase at 2:30, rain would likely swing the balance in favour of Puffin Billy ahead of Thomas Crapper.

The latter prefers a decent surface, whilst the former want it soft.

The race does look likely to go to one of the two of them…

The juvenile hurdle at 3:05 is very tricky to unravel.

If you could take the form at face value, then I think Zarib would be the one to beat.

He ran really well in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival – but there is a chance that the run took a lot out of him.

He is closely matched with Unanimite on that form – and that one has first time blinkers applied today, which could make a difference.

The other one I think is of interest, is Sternrubin.
He is clearly quite quirky – but I suspect he has a lot of talent and will benefit from competing in a strong race.

I think there is a chance that he might get overlooked in the betting – and he could be worth an interest if getting to a price of 8/1 or bigger.

The other one that caught my eye was Prairie Town.

I really wanted to be able to make a case for him at a price, but I couldn’t quite do it.

That said, I would still be wary of him…

Turn Over Sivola should really be the one in the novice handicap chase at 3:40 – but he’s another one who would prefer quick ground.

The same is true of Un Ace – which is a shame as those two looked the best handicapped horses in the race.

I’m a big fan of both Top Gamble and Royal Regatta – and I like the fact that both of them missed Cheltenham.

However, they have both shot up the handicap this season – and you do wonder how much more improvement they have got in them.

Finally, I could have been tempted to take a chance on What a Warrior over hurdles in the 4:45 race – but again, he prefers quick ground.

If the rain stays away, then he would be worth a small interest on a track that he likes and with a very capable claimer in the saddle…

There’s not much equine talent to get excited about at Limerick – but the presence of Joseph O’Brien riding his fathers Egyptian Warrior in the novice hurdle at 3:30, could be very significant.
Young Joseph has always struggled with his weight and maybe this is the first of many rides over jumps for him.

Who knows, in time he might turn out to be the next AP !! (though I kind of doubt it !)

Good luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.