Daily write-up - Mar 14th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Kempton, Uttoxeter and Newcastle in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.

There’s not too much to recommend the cards at either Newcastle or Limerick – but those staged at Kempton and Uttoxeter are little crackers !

I remember in bygone years, I used to dread the weekend after Cheltenham, but credit to both courses, who have clearly adapted and stage a number of fascinating races.

As you may have gathered, I had no issue finding tips (I could probably have found a few more !) – though I am a little wary about the ground conditions.

At Uttoxeter, they look set to race on heavy ground (4.1 on the going stick); whereas at Kempton, the ground is good (7.5 on the going stick).

As a result, I’m looking for completely different types of horses at the 2 meetings – but compared to unravelling the Cheltenham plots, it still seems like a breeze !

Here are my thoughts on the day:

Kempton

2:20

There are a few potentially interesting ones in this…

Tony Martin sends over Mydor – and he looks feasibly handicapped on a mark of 130, following a good run last time; whilst La Vaticane makes his UK debut for David Pipe – and could literally be anything.

If either of those win, we’ll just have to shrug our shoulders – the market has found them, so there is no value for us to second guess over.

Of the others, then Communicator and Theinval are also both of potential interest – but again, priced short enough for horse with question marks over them.

Of much more interest at a price, is the Paul Nichols trained Katgary.

This time last year, he finished an unlucky second in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival – and looked sure to go on to greater things.

In fact, he was made a very shorted priced favourite for his next outing at Aintree, but was a disappointment.

He’s not really done much this season either – but he’s only run 3 times, and there are feasible excuses for each of his performances.

He maybe needed the run first time out; he maybe found the ground too soft in the Greatwood hurdle; and he maybe didn’t take to fences when tried over them at Christmas…

Obviously you have to be careful not to give a horse to many chances – but I think they are all potentially valid reasons why the real Katgary hasn’t shown up so far this season.

Today, I see no reason why he won’t perform to his best.

He’s back over hurdles and on quick ground that we know he likes. He is stepping up in trip – but he always looked as if that would suit.

Furthermore, he is now running off a mark just 2lb higher than he ran off in last seasons Fred Winter – and he has got crack apprentice Sean Bowen on board, claiming 5lbs.

In short, he has a lot of things in his favour – and an early price of 14/1 looks very generous indeed.

0.25pt win Katgary 14/1

3:30

The market for this race is made by Canuspotit – but he just has to be taken on.,,

Don’t get me wrong, I was as impressed as anyone by his last time out win: but he’s the best part of a stone higher in the handicap: taking on opposition 2 classes higher: and on completely different ground. A 9/2 shot – I don’t think so…

I would also have issues with Allez Vic

He was a facile winner over hurdles last time out: and ran a very good race over fences at Chepstow 3 outings ago. However, sandwiched between those runs, he put in a shocker at Taunton. His confidence jumping fences seemed shot that day – and it would be difficult to support him over the bigger obstacles until you knew that had been restored.

Two of much greater interest are Lamool and Buck Magic.

Both have been off the course for a while – but that could well be because they’ve been waiting for the better ground.

Lamool was very impressive when winning on good ground at Aintree the autumn. He went up 12lb for that win – but I still think he could be competitive off his new mark.

He was tempting.
However, I opted for Buck Magic instead.

He was a winning TVB tip a couple of seasons back, when he took a hurdle race at the Cheltenham November meeting.

He reached a mark of 134 over hurdles that season – but then had a season off (presumable with an injury).

He returned over fences this autumn and ran a couple of decent races to finish second – before disappointing on his two most recent outings (the latter one, over hurdles).

He’s been given a break since Christmas – and hopefully that will have freshened him up.

I suspect he will appreciate the better ground – and he has already performed with credit around the Kempton track.

However the real eye catcher here, is the booking of Barry Gerraghty for a Neil Mullholland horse. The pair are 5 from 18 – including taking a big handicap at Cheltenham this week.

On a horse now rated 10lb below the level he reached over hurdles, if Barry can work his magic, I would be very optimistic that Buck Magic will be up to the task.

0.5pt win Buck Magic 10/1

In the opener on the card, I suspect that Art Mauresque is the one to beat…

Admittedly there is quite a lot of guess work – and consequently it would be difficult to get involved at 9/4 – but I have a feeling he could be different class to his rivals…

Certainly Paul Nichols has not campaigned him like a 135 rated horse.

His UK debut was in a grade 2 event at Cheltenham – and his most recent run, in a grade 1 event at Auteuil.

He didn’t feature in either contest – but the stable opinion of him seems quite clear…

Sandwiched in between those two runs, he put in a good performance at Ascot – so his case is not all based on reputation.

If the first time hood gets him back on track today, I suspect he will hack up.

Uttoxeter

2:05

This doesn’t look like the strongest event ever run – and I think it is worth taking a chance on Verano…

Certainly, when compared to the races he has run in so far this season, Verano should find this a whole lot easier.

He opened his campaign by running in class 1 handicap hurdle at Ascot in November.

He cut little ice that day – and it was as similar story on his next outing in a novice handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting.

However the difference in class between those two races and the one he competes in today, is huge.

In fact he is only able to run in today race because his handicap mark has dropped significantly.

He started the season on a mark of 127 – and today gets to run off a mark of 113.

His most recent run was at Newbury a fortnight ago.
That was on the back of a long break and in the circumstances, I thought he performed quite creditably against some very decent animals.

He was still in with half a chance approaching the third last – but backed out of things as the race hotted up.

However, he stayed on late and was only beaten 16 lengths at the line.
I suspect he will have derived significant benefit from that run – and if that is the case, then I can see him going very close today.

I have some slight concerns about his ability to handle very heavy ground – even though he’s won on the soft.

However, I think they are factored into a price of 9/1 against opposition which looks quite moderate.

0.5pt win Verano 9/1

2:40

This is a really strong race – and I was hoping I would be able to tip Algernon Pazham in it. However, his price of 9/2 leaves no margin for error, so I’ve had to pass on him.

In truth, I could have ducked the race completely, as there are 3 or 4 that I could make a case for – but I’ve decided to take a small risk on Top Wood….

He is undeniably well treated on his hurdles form, as he won a stronger race than todays over hurdles at Haydock last seasons, off a mark of 130.

As a result of that, his hurdles mark was raised to 140 – but he gets to run today off a mark of 128…

His Haydock win also showed that he is fully effective on heavy ground – so that shouldn’t be an issue for him either.

The concern prior to his last run, was his ability to jump a fence – but whilst he was ultimately well beaten at Exeter, I felt his jumping was sufficiently proficient for that not to be a worry.

I like the fact that Conor O Farrell is back in the saddle today (he rode him at Haydock) – and I like the application of first time blinkers.

I could see him being given a very prominent ride (Straidnahanna likes to make the running as well) – and if he does get into a rhythm, then in perfect conditions, I think he could run a very big race.

0.25pt win Top Wood 11/1

3:50

Catching On is going to take the world of beating in this, with just a 6lb penalty for his recent win at Exeter – but all the same, I’m not sure he warrants being a 5/2 shot in such a competitive race…

True, he was mightily impressive at Exeter – but that was a much weaker race than todays – and it was only 11 days ago.

If he hacks up again, then fair enough, but I think he is worth taking on, at the price…

Woodford County and Foxbridge, were two I considered taking him on with.

I’ve tipped both already this season – and have a good feel for their strengths/weaknesses.

I suspect that the former will run his race – and has strong EW appeal – however I also suspect he won’t be quite good enough to win.

The latter might be good enough to win – if his stamina holds out. But whether that will happen, is anyones guess…

Regardless, I feel a stronger case can be made for the Veteran Carruthers.

He will have no issue with todays trip or ground – but most importantly, is handicapped to give Catching On a race, even if that one is as well handicapped as seems likely.

Simply Carruther is spectacularly well handicapped.

Just over 12 months ago, he ran second to Shotgun Paddy in the Classic chase at Warwick.

That run was off a mark of 150 – he met Shotgun Paddy at level weights that day. Today he runs off a mark of 133 – and receives a stone from his old rival.

The reduction in his mark has come about because the handicapper has taken a view that he is in rapid decline – but his performances on the racecourse don’t really back that up.

He’s another one who has had good reasons for some seemingly under par runs – and if everything falls right today, I am sure he is still capable of running a massive race.

0.25pt win Carruthers 16/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Kempton 2:20 Katgary 0.25pt win 14/1

Kempton 3:30 Buck Magic 0.5pt win 10/1

Uttoxeter 2:05 Verano 0.5pt win 9/1

Uttoxeter 2:50 Top Wood 0.25pt win 11/1

Uttoxeter 3:50 Carruthers 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Kempton 1:45 Art Mauresque (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None